{"id":397239,"date":"2025-08-23T18:13:30","date_gmt":"2025-08-23T17:13:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=397239"},"modified":"2026-01-02T03:14:46","modified_gmt":"2026-01-02T02:14:46","slug":"600b-tons-of-carbon-emissions-and-arctic-sea-ice-stays-the-same-for-20-years","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=397239","title":{"rendered":"600b tons of carbon emissions and Arctic Sea ice stays the same for 20 years"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"A<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From JoNova<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Jo Nova<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"A<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

One third of all human emissions has had no effect on the Arctic<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Since 2005, humans have emitted one third of all the emissions we\u2019ve ever put out \u2014 some 600 billion tons of CO2. Yet the Arctic Sea ice is the same as it was twenty years ago. And even though the modelers cling to the excuse that this is \u201cconsistent with simulated internal variability\u201d there was not one model that forecast this would happen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For twenty years arctic sea ice was the Posterchild of Panic, and on the verge of disappearing forever, while Antarctic Sea ice was invisible. Now the Sea ice at the South Pole is at \u201ca climate tipping point\u201d, and the northern sea-ice is just\u00a0a surprise.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even when Sea ice does nothing, it\u2019s\u00a0dramatic<\/em>:<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

As long as the buzzwords are there in the headlines,\u00a0The Guardian<\/a>\u00a0<\/em>readers may not even realize the scientists were completely, utterly wrong, and all the hand-wringing and tears about the polar bears was just a fundraising<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"Aerial<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Remember, bad news is due to man-made climate change, but good news is a natural variation<\/em>, and it\u2019s only temporary. The Prophets of Climate say disaster is just around the corner still.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The melting of sea ice in the Arctic<\/a> has slowed dramatically in the past 20 years, scientists have reported, with no statistically significant decline in its extent since 2005.   \u2026they said this was only a temporary reprieve and melting was highly likely to start again at about double the long-term rate at some point in the next five to 10 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s just how rampant Blob-media bias works, and the Blob-academics are fine with that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is what a dramatic surprise looks like:<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s bad when the trend creeps up on you after doing the same thing for twenty years in a row.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Graph
Graph: Climate4U<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

nternal Variability is just the multifunctional excuse<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

There\u2019s no climate force called \u201cinternal variability\u201d \u2014 it is not hiding in a submarine trench, or riding a jet stream, it\u2019s just the band-aid excuse modelers use when they should say \u201cwe don\u2019t know\u201d and \u201cwe were wrong\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From the paper \u2014  They say the trend will definitely end soon, unless it doesn\u2019t. The Experts are so under-confident now, they are buying another five or ten years of time, just in case the arctic doesn\u2019t start melting soon:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysis of ensemble members that simulate analogs of the observed pause indicates that the current slowdown could plausibly persist another five to 10 year<\/strong>s, although the chances of a faster\u2010than\u2010average decline are increased<\/strong> in the near\u2010future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These people don\u2019t even know what evidence is. The think simulations are evidence:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The\u00a0modeling\u00a0evidence<\/strong>\u00a0suggests that\u00a0internal variability<\/strong>\u00a0has substantially offset anthropogenically forced sea ice loss in recent\u00a0decades. Overall, this observed pause in Arctic Sea ice decline is consistent with simulated internal variability\u00a0superimposed on the long\u2010term trend according to the bulk of the climate modeling evidence<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What they don\u2019t say is that if the world is warming and the ice isn\u2019t melting, then some other mysterious force they don\u2019t understand must be keeping the sea-ice cooler.  It could be solar magnetic forces, changing UV, shifting geothermal heat, cycles in ocean currents, or algal blooms that pump out cloud seeding aerosols. But if the modelers add these in, there might not be any room left to blame CO2.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If we had climate models that knew what those forces were  \u2013 they might have seen this coming in 2005 instead of being surprised in 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"A<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

h\/t Kenneth Richards at NoTricksZone<\/a>, WattsUp<\/a>, and  Tallbloke.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

POST NOTE: Another paper by other modelers who also have no clue\u2026<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Kenneth Richards at Notrickszone<\/em> talks about different paper (Stern et al) who found a flat line in the minimum ice each year from 2007.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The fact that September Arctic SIE shows no trend during 2007\u20132024 may at first seem hard to explain<\/strong>. The Earth continues to warm, and the Arctic is warming faster than the global average (IPCC, 2021). One possibility is that the recent period of no trend is just interdecadal variability. Baxter et al. (2019) found that \u201cobservational and model evidence shows that the changes in summer sea ice since the 2000s reflect a continuous anthropogenically forced melting masked by interdecadal variability of Arctic atmospheric circulation\u2026resulting in the appearance of a slowdown over the past 11 years.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They spend many paragraphs reviewing all the suggestions that might explain why, but essentially no one knows. It might have something to do with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the Arctic Oscillation, the Arctic Dipole, freshwater flushing, positive ice albedo feedback, pre-conditioned sea-ice, old ice,  triggering by the early spring snow melt, and the persistence of a cyclonic mode in the Arctic ocean. It\u2019s a keyword mash of all the permitted variables and none of the solar, geothermal or space weather ones. (Don\u2019t mention the sun).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Stern finish with the required liturgy:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Whatever the reason for the near\u2010zero trend during 2007\u20132024, Arctic SIE is predicted to continue declining due to increasing global average air temperature caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Based on global climate models, there is \u201chigh confidence that the Arctic Ocean will likely become practically sea ice free in the September mean for the first time\u2026before the year 2050\u201d in all emissions scenarios (Fox\u2010Kemper et al., 2021).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Whatever is causing this, based on climate models that don\u2019t work, the Arctic sea ice is finished, so there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

REFERENCE<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

England, M.R., Polvani, L. M., Screen, J., & Chan, A. C. (2025). Minimal Arctic sea <\/a>ice loss in the last 20 years, consistent with internal climate variability. Geophysical Research Letters,<\/em> 52, e2025GL116175. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1029\/2025GL116175<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Stern, H. L. (2025). Regime shift in Arctic Ocean sea\u2010ice extent<\/a>. Geophysical Research Letters, 52, e2024GL114546.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

600 billion tons of carbon \u2013 OWID cumulative human emissions of CO2<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

NASA \u2014 NASA\u2019s Scientific Visualization Studio \u2013 Trent L. Schindler, Jefferson Beck  \u2014 Wiki<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Polar Bear photo: Image by Maximilian<\/a> from Pixabay<\/a><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Since 2005, humans have emitted one third of all the emissions we\u2019ve ever put out \u2014 some 600 billion tons of CO2. Yet the Arctic Sea ice is the same as it was twenty years ago. And even though the modelers cling to the excuse that this is \u201cconsistent with simulated internal variability\u201d there was not one model that forecast this would happen.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":397251,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818605,691818990,691837254,691829997,691818056,691818153],"class_list":{"0":"post-397239","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-arctic","9":"tag-arctic-sea-ice","10":"tag-blob-media","11":"tag-carbon-dioxide-co","12":"tag-climate-change","13":"tag-climate-models","15":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/OIGP.5cJ.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1Fl5","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":324615,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=324615","url_meta":{"origin":397239,"position":0},"title":"Nature Publication: Researchers Find Arctic Region 10,000 Years Ago Warmer Than Today","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"29\/04\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Examined today is a paper appearing in the journal Nature Communications titled: \u201cSeasonal sea-ice in the Arctic\u2019s last ice area during the Early Holocene\u201d The authors looked at sea ice in the region of the Lincoln Sea, bordering northern Greenland and Canada, will be the final stronghold of perennial Arctic\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Arctic\"","block_context":{"text":"Arctic","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=arctic"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/0Melting_Sea_Ice.JPG_9iZp5pr.jpg?fit=1200%2C796&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/0Melting_Sea_Ice.JPG_9iZp5pr.jpg?fit=1200%2C796&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/0Melting_Sea_Ice.JPG_9iZp5pr.jpg?fit=1200%2C796&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/0Melting_Sea_Ice.JPG_9iZp5pr.jpg?fit=1200%2C796&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/0Melting_Sea_Ice.JPG_9iZp5pr.jpg?fit=1200%2C796&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":342614,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=342614","url_meta":{"origin":397239,"position":1},"title":"The Overlooked Role of Atmospheric Rivers in Arctic Sea Ice Loss: A Challenge to the CO2-Centric Narrative","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"11\/09\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The study on atmospheric rivers has given us a valuable insight into the complexity of Arctic sea ice variability. The role of ARs in both ice melt and recovery provides a clear challenge to the simplistic view that Arctic changes are primarily driven by CO2 levels. This should prompt us\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Arctic sea ice\"","block_context":{"text":"Arctic sea ice","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=arctic-sea-ice"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/0arctic_ice_loss.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/0arctic_ice_loss.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/0arctic_ice_loss.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/0arctic_ice_loss.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/0arctic_ice_loss.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":261587,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=261587","url_meta":{"origin":397239,"position":2},"title":"Arctic Ice: A History of Failed Predictions","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"11\/06\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The latest claim is no different, suggesting that it\u2019s too late now to save Arctic summer ice. 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The researchers say, \u2018it can be assumed that the global influence of this mechanism as a carbon sink is actually much greater\u2019.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/0Ocean-carbon-cycle-4-18-19.png?fit=1090%2C844&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/0Ocean-carbon-cycle-4-18-19.png?fit=1090%2C844&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/0Ocean-carbon-cycle-4-18-19.png?fit=1090%2C844&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/0Ocean-carbon-cycle-4-18-19.png?fit=1090%2C844&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/0Ocean-carbon-cycle-4-18-19.png?fit=1090%2C844&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/397239","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=397239"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/397239\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":397254,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/397239\/revisions\/397254"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/397251"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=397239"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=397239"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=397239"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}