{"id":396471,"date":"2025-08-20T14:45:48","date_gmt":"2025-08-20T12:45:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=396471"},"modified":"2025-08-20T14:46:03","modified_gmt":"2025-08-20T12:46:03","slug":"scientists-warn-about-scientists-warnings","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=396471","title":{"rendered":"Scientists Warn About Scientists\u2019 Warnings"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"A<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Guest Post By<\/em><\/strong> Willis Eschenbach<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Only a journalist truly committed to the ancient art of panic-clickbait could squeeze all the world\u2019s existential dread into a headline like,\u00a0\u201cA Giant, Destructive Volcanic Eruption Is Set to Shake the World in the Coming Months, Bringing About the End of Mankind, Scientists Warn.\u201d<\/a>\u00a0<\/strong>They\u2019ve accompanied it with the following graphic, in case you weren\u2019t adequately terrified.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"A<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

The dead giveaway? \u201cScientists Warn.\u201d<\/strong> Whenever you see those two words sandwiched together above the fold, you know you\u2019re about to step into a wonderland of wild extrapolation, qualified maybes, and models run so far into the future they boomerang back with \u201crobots take over\u201d as the y-axis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They start out as follows:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

A detailed geophysical study published in Nature in by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has refined our understanding of the Yellowstone super volcano, uncovering new insights into its subsurface magma dynamics. Concurrently, climatological assessments by researchers such as Markus Stoffel (University of Geneva) have renewed discourse around the global systemic risks posed by a potential super-eruption \u2014 not only at Yellowstone, but at several other active volcanic complexes worldwide.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

There\u2019s an oddity here to start with. They\u2019ve pushed together into one paragraph an actual scientific study of the Yellowstone caldera, and a paywalled puff piece by some random guy trying to frighten people about future eruptions. Unless you\u2019re watching very closely to see which walnut the pea is under, it\u2019s likely to be successful in making you think \u201cWow, a predicted super-eruption at Yellowstone, and the odds are high in other locations as well\u201d.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Which does sound scary. So keep that thought in mind while we look at the first of the two parts they\u2019ve pushed into one paragraph\u2014the actual Yellowstone scientific study.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s the latest USGS study published in Nature<\/a> under the very boring title \u201cThe progression of basaltic\u2013rhyolitic melt storage at Yellowstone Caldera\u201d<\/em>. It gives us an upgraded, high-res CAT scan of Yellowstone\u2019s magma plumbing. Instead of a giant pool of liquid doom sloshing under Wyoming, the new imaging shows a club sandwich: scattered blobs of partially molten rock, unevenly distributed, with most of the melt sitting in the northeast sector. The scale is impressive\u2014400\u2013500 cubic kilometers of rhyolitic magma waiting for its cosmic moment. The heat just keeps bubbling up from below, slow and relentless, and with enough time, these melt zones might even hook up into a larger reservoir. But spoiler: no scientist anywhere is claiming that\u2019s on tomorrow\u2019s chore list.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Which brings us to the great, headline-grabbing \u201c16% chance (one in six) of apocalypse by 2100\u201d<\/em> further down in the popular reports\u2014a number that, if ever printed on a lottery ticket, would bankrupt Las Vegas. From the article:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

Still, climatologist Markus Stoffel and affiliated risk researchers estimate a ~16% probability of a VEI 7 or higher eruption occurring globally before the year 2100.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n

\n
\"A<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Except that particular prediction is not referred to by the scientists of the actual Yellowstone study, and has nothing to do with the Yellowstone study<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It comes from some gentleman yclept Markus Stoffel. And he\u2019s not even talking about Yellowstone. He\u2019s talking about the entire planet.\u00a0Nothing to do with Yellowstone<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And who is Markus when he\u2019s at home? Is he a member of the team of authors of the Yellowstone study?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nope.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Well, is he a vulcanologist?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nope again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He\u2019s a climate professor at the University of Geneva. He\u2019s published a lot, almost entirely regarding the effects of \u201cclimate change\u201d on glaciers, mountain landslides, and mountain lakes. To quote from his bio page,<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

In a nutshell, my research is related to climate change impacts, time-series and dynamics of hydrogeomorphic and earth-surface processes at altitude and\/or high latitudes, as well as on dendroecology and wood anatomy of trees and shrubs.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Translated, that means he mostly studies the nature and dynamics of landslides, and their effect on tree rings and tree populations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Stoffel\u2019s global \u201csuper-eruption\u201d probability is based on \u2026 well \u2026 it\u2019s hard to find that out. It\u2019s from a paywalled opinion piece<\/a> (not a peer reviewed study), and I\u2019m not paying the monkey. It\u2019s headlined:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

The next massive volcano eruption will cause climate chaos \u2014 and we are unprepared<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Volcanic activity will be experienced differently in a warmer world. Researchers need to understand these risks and how they could spiral.<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n

Now, what he\u2019s calling a \u201cmassive\u201d volcanic eruption is scientifically known as a VEI-7 eruption or larger. The Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) is a logarithmic scale from 0 to 8 used to measure the relative explosiveness of volcanic eruptions. \u201cLogarithmic\u201d means that each step is ten times the previous step. So a VEI-7 eruption is ten times as explosive as a VEI-6 eruption. And it\u2019s a hundred times as explosive as the VEI-5 Vesuvius eruption that buried Pompeii \u2026 so yes. Massive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Near as I can tell from published reports and descriptions of the piece, the estimate uses a recurrence-interval logic. However, I can\u2019t make that fit with real-world data. There have been 7 VEI-7 or stronger eruptions throughout relatively well-documented history since the eruption of the Akahoya Volcano in Japan in 7,300 BC until the eruption of Mt. Tambora 110 years ago. This makes the recurrence interval on the order of 1,070 years. So we\u2019ll call it a thousand years. And this \u201cthousand-year event\u201d figure is widely quoted in the scientific literature about eruptions of VEI-7 or greater.

OK, math warning. Jump over the marked section if you don\u2019t like math.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"A<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

WARNING: MATH DANGER ZONE BELOW<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

Now, the Poisson formula for the probability P<\/strong><\/em> of a VEI-7 eruption within a certain number of years is calculated as<\/p>\n\n\n\n

P<\/em> = 1 \u2212 e<\/em>\u2212\u03bbt<\/em><\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

where \u03bb<\/em>  is the annual rate (1\/1000) and t<\/em> is the time window (75 years to the year 2100).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

MATH DANGER ZONE ENDS<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This means the odds of a VEI-7 or greater eruption before 2100 is 7%. Counterintuitively, it doesn\u2019t matter how long it\u2019s been since the last eruption. Odds are the same whether the last blowout was a hundred or a thousand years ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So Se\u00f1or Stoffel is doing some kind of plain and fancy statistical tapdancing to get a value more than twice that of traditional math. To get to his 16% chance by the year 2100 number, the recurrence interval of massive eruptions would have to be 430 years, and there\u2019s no evidence of that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

(Curiously, and perhaps not coincidentally, the chance of a massive eruption by the year 22<\/strong>00 is indeed 16% \u2026 but I digress.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now, about this \u201cend of mankind\u201d bit\u2014don\u2019t bother searching the Nature study. You\u2019ll find plenty of detail on mineralogy and melt percentages, reams of electron microscope scans, and lots of caution about inferring timeframes. You will not, under peer review or USGS letterhead, find predictions about humanity\u2019s extinction. What the data actually say is that Yellowstone\u2019s timetable is wildly non-periodic, there are no clear cycles, and the statistical sample is, by any reasonable standard, too tiny for fortune-telling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The actual hazard of monster eruptions somewhere on the globe? Real, yes. And it has been for the last nine thousand years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Visibly increasing? No. The hazards have been the same over the entire nine millennia, and our ability to deal with such events has never been better.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Likely to bring about the \u201cend of mankind\u201d? Well, the last eight such events didn\u2019t even begin to end mankind. They brought a few years of bad weather, sometimes very bad early on and close to the eruption. But not many people died worldwide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So I\u2019m gonna put my money on \u201cNo chance in hell\u201d<\/em> that the next one ends mankind.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Worth prepping your doomsday bunker over a panicky headline about eruptions written by a man with a PhD. thesis titled \u201cSpatio-temporal variations of rockfall activity into forests \u2013 results from tree-ring and tree analysis\u201d?<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Maybe not this quarter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So next time you see \u201cScientists Warn\u201d above a picture of a bison grazing a steamy caldera, remember: It\u2019s never the geologists issuing the press-release countdown to Armageddon. The real science, as usual, is in the fine print\u2014buried under three layers of model assumptions, and almost always ending with some version of, \u201cwe simply don\u2019t know when.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

My very best to everyone, life is good.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

w.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As I May Have Mentioned Before: <\/strong>When you comment, I implore you to quote the exact words you are discussing. I\u2019m SO tired of people saying something like \u201cYou are entirely wrong about volcanoes\u201d<\/em> or the like, and I have no idea if they\u2019re talking to me or someone else, and if so, about what.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The dead giveaway?\u00a0\u201cScientists Warn.\u201d\u00a0Whenever you see those two words sandwiched together above the fold, you know you\u2019re about to step into a wonderland of wild extrapolation, qualified maybes, and models run so far into the future they boomerang back with \u201crobots take over\u201d as the y-axis.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":396482,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"Explore the truth behind volcanic eruption predictions and the sensationalism surrounding scientific warnings about Yellowstone and global risks.","jetpack_seo_html_title":"Understanding the Yellowstone Volcano: Myths vs. Reality","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691837407,691837404,691837405,691818448,691837406],"class_list":{"0":"post-396471","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-climatologist-markus-stoffel","9":"tag-scientists-warn","10":"tag-u-s-geological-survey-usgs","11":"tag-volcanoes","12":"tag-yellowstone-super-volcano","14":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQMWfVmmaWfxuVpbMXM573Av3d_rjphu_csDSNisfNE-yYD2Mz-DBZ5OUlFO3n51NXa3_wv9FaGdOLjIKfmYQkiTtxmrYng4T85_cRGrCtvo5AtJdboBXkqcJ9br6JrPQxbtoBOfZtMp3IspHZMifOxJC19Qog-1.jpeg?fit=1280%2C1280&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1F8H","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":202286,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=202286","url_meta":{"origin":396471,"position":0},"title":"The NOT melting glacier","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"31\/05\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"beautiful white icy hill with cave in Antarctic Could Antarctica\u2019s \u2018Doomsday Glacier\u2019 meet its doom within 3 years? \u201cTime is melting away for one of Antarctica\u2019s biggest glaciers, and its rapid deterioration could end with the ice shelf\u2019s complete collapse in just a few years.\u00a0Alarmist researchers warned at a virtual\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/00Antarctica-Penguin.jpg?fit=848%2C565&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/00Antarctica-Penguin.jpg?fit=848%2C565&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/00Antarctica-Penguin.jpg?fit=848%2C565&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/00Antarctica-Penguin.jpg?fit=848%2C565&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":258794,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=258794","url_meta":{"origin":396471,"position":1},"title":"New volcano discovered in the Barents Sea","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"23\/05\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"A unique new volcano has been discovered at 400 meters depth in the Barents Sea. 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