{"id":395590,"date":"2025-08-16T16:28:29","date_gmt":"2025-08-16T14:28:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=395590"},"modified":"2025-08-16T16:28:31","modified_gmt":"2025-08-16T14:28:31","slug":"new-study-thoroughly-disassembles-the-co2-drives-climate-assumption-in-one-fell-swoop","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=395590","title":{"rendered":"New Study Thoroughly Disassembles The CO2-Drives-Climate Assumption In One Fell Swoop"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"A<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From NoTrickZone<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By\u00a0Kenneth Richard<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Not only does CO2 have no discernible effect on climate, but any alleged anthropogenic role within the hypothetical greenhouse effect is not detectable either.<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

In recent decades there has been a concerted effort to assert it is \u201csettled\u201d science to characterize variability in the atmospheric CO2 concentration \u2013 assumed to be modulated by human activity \u2013 as the predominant factor in both climate change and the so-called greenhouse effect.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Science, however, is never truly settled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A new Frontiers<\/em><\/a><\/strong> study succinctly unsettles this prevailing paradigm with surgeon-like precision. In under 20 pages the authors deliver a cogent critique of the CO2-drives-climate presumption. A few of the key points include:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2022 CO2 only contributes about 4-5% to the greenhouse effect, whereas water vapor and clouds contribute 95%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2022 Of that 4-5% greenhouse effect contribution from CO2, just 4% of that can be attributed to human activities (i.e., fossil fuel emissions). Thus, about 96% of the 4% contribution from CO2 can be attributed to natural processes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWV [water vapor] and clouds (for which WV is responsible) dominate the ARE [atmospheric radiative effect], while CO2 contributes only 4-5% to it. Also, anthropogenic CO2 emissions are only 4% of the total, with the vast majority (96%) being natural. Additionally, evidence suggests that changes in temperature precede those in CO2 concentration, thus challenging the assumption that CO2 drives temperature.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2022 As Fig. 10 in the study indicates, observed changes in the atmospheric CO2 concentration cannot be demonstrated to have exerted any effect in altering longwave radiation measurements, much less the surface temperature. A hypothetical doubling the CO2 concentration [NC-RAGs, or non-condensing radiatively active gases] \u201cresults in a temperature increase of zero\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201c[W]hile the role of CO2 in photosynthesis is important in biochemical terms, it becomes negligible in terms of its contribution to the surface energy balance.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201c[T]he observed increase of the atmospheric CO2 [from 300 ppm to 420 ppm] has not altered the ARE [atmospheric radiative effect or greenhouse effect] in any discernible way.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"Graph
Image Source:\u00a0Koutsoyiannis and Tsakalias, 2025<\/a><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Greenhouse Effect<\/del> and Greenhouse Gases<\/del> = Atmospheric Radiative Effect and Radiatively Active Gases<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Common-use terms like greenhouse effect and greenhouse gases are misrepresentations of what occurs in the real-world atmosphere. Heat transfer for both a greenhouse and in the real-world surface-troposphere is dominated by convection, not radiation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Atmospheric mass is much denser near the surface, decreasing with altitude. This leads to a 6.5\u00b0C per km temperature gradient in the troposphere.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201c[H]igher atmospheric mass increases the heat capacity of the atmosphere, and thus decreases the surface net radiative cooling [and] increases the global mean surface temperature\u201d<\/em> \u2013 Chemke and Kaspi, 2017<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, for example, while the temperatures at the base of equatorial Mount Kilimanjaro range around 24\u00b0C annually<\/a><\/strong>, the mean summit temperatures average about -18\u00b0C<\/a><\/strong>. This 42\u00b0C temperature differential is similar, physics-wise, to the 36 Kelvin (K) surface warming (252 K vs. 288 K) commonly attributed to the Earth\u2019s so-called greenhouse effect (atmospheric radiative effect), or to greenhouse gases (radiatively active gases) like CO2 and water vapor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But just as the summit-to-base 42\u00b0C Kilimanjaro temperature differential has to do with the lapse rate\/temperature gradient, and not the radiative effect of variations in the concentration of gases like CO2, so too does the 36 K temperature differential for the surface-atmosphere. Thus, CO2, a non-condensing radiatively active gas (NC-RAG), can be said to have exactly zero effect on the 252 K vs. 288 K temperature gradient.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cHence, it is the temperature gradient that makes the surface-level temperature increase from about 252 K \u2026 to about 288 K (i.e., by 36 K). This increase is usually attributed to the \u2018greenhouse effect\u2019, but it is mainly the result of the temperature gradient.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe effect of the NC-RAG <\/em>[non-condensing radiatively active gases] is zero for an isothermal atmosphere.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Graph
Image Source:\u00a0Koutsoyiannis and Tsakalius, 2025<\/a><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Not only does CO2 have no discernible effect on climate, but any alleged anthropogenic role within the hypothetical greenhouse effect is not detectable either.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":395597,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691829997,691818056,691818296,691824888,691837316,691819657],"class_list":["post-395590","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-carbon-dioxide-co","tag-climate-change","tag-greenhouse-effect","tag-longwave-radiation","tag-mount-kilimanjaro","tag-water-vapor","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQOU14aPp1HjybpPod8BuWcKZxZUhRM_BcaIzgm0qA47j1Zn1nTzS_woHHaUm55jJPBqVF2iq2fRNZiV5Pg4lndByx-QD2DpeNSqOV7zCeDs5lh4_NPChGxmtGUNQ4XD666D9IY90mIemq-foXE4ZfOKP8E2xw-1.jpeg?fit=1280%2C1280&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1EUu","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":288969,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=288969","url_meta":{"origin":395590,"position":0},"title":"New Study Finds The Post-1900 CO2 Rise Has Not Discernibly Altered The Greenhouse Effect","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"11\/28\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"From NoTricksZone By\u00a0Kenneth Richard\u00a0on\u00a027. November 2023 Variations in the greenhouse effect are predominantly modulated by water vapor and cloud cover. CO2\u2019s role in the greenhouse effect is so minor it cannot be discerned. For decades scientists have reported that a CO2 concentration of about 300 ppm can only increase the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/00image-580-1024x640-2.webp?fit=1024%2C640&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/00image-580-1024x640-2.webp?fit=1024%2C640&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/00image-580-1024x640-2.webp?fit=1024%2C640&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/00image-580-1024x640-2.webp?fit=1024%2C640&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":351059,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=351059","url_meta":{"origin":395590,"position":1},"title":"\u00a0New Study: Human Contribution To Enhancement Of Earth\u2019s Greenhouse Effect A Negligible 0.2 Percent","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"11\/13\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"\u201c[T]he contribution of CO2 to the greenhouse effect is 4% \u2013 5%. Human CO2 emissions represent 4% of the total, which means that the total human contribution to the enhancement of the greenhouse effect is 0.16% to 0.20% \u2013 a negligible effect.\u201d \u2013 Dr. Demetris Koutsoyiannis (2024)","rel":"","context":"In \"carbon dioxide (CO2)\"","block_context":{"text":"carbon dioxide (CO2)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=carbon-dioxide-co2"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/00AdobeStock_266865139.jpg?fit=1200%2C668&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/00AdobeStock_266865139.jpg?fit=1200%2C668&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/00AdobeStock_266865139.jpg?fit=1200%2C668&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/00AdobeStock_266865139.jpg?fit=1200%2C668&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/00AdobeStock_266865139.jpg?fit=1200%2C668&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":311158,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=311158","url_meta":{"origin":395590,"position":2},"title":"Humans Add Little to Rising CO2 March\u00a02024","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"03\/21\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Overall, the findings in this paper confirm the major role of the biosphere in the carbon cycle (and through this in climate) and a non-discernible signature of humans.","rel":"","context":"In \"carbon cycle\"","block_context":{"text":"carbon cycle","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=carbon-cycle"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0-carbon-cycle.png?fit=1200%2C926&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0-carbon-cycle.png?fit=1200%2C926&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0-carbon-cycle.png?fit=1200%2C926&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0-carbon-cycle.png?fit=1200%2C926&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0-carbon-cycle.png?fit=1200%2C926&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":314187,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=314187","url_meta":{"origin":395590,"position":3},"title":"For Millions of Years Earth Temperatures Not Driven by\u00a0CO2","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"03\/28\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Atmospheric CO2 concentration is correlated weakly but negatively with linearly-detrended T proxies over the last 425 million years.","rel":"","context":"In \"ancient climate\"","block_context":{"text":"ancient climate","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=ancient-climate"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/01868412.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/01868412.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/01868412.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/01868412.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/01868412.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":368744,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=368744","url_meta":{"origin":395590,"position":4},"title":"IR-Active Gases: H2O Potent, CO2\u00a0Feeble","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"03\/05\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Using a detailed atmospheric radiative transfer model, we derive macroscopic relationships of downwelling and outgoing longwave radiation\u00a0which enable determining the partial derivatives thereof with respect to the explanatory variables that represent the greenhouse gases. 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