{"id":395297,"date":"2025-08-15T14:44:08","date_gmt":"2025-08-15T12:44:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=395297"},"modified":"2025-08-15T14:44:10","modified_gmt":"2025-08-15T12:44:10","slug":"why-climate-doomsters-cant-recant","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=395297","title":{"rendered":"Why Climate Doomsters Can\u2019t\u00a0Recant"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"A<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Science Matters<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By\u00a0Ron Clutz<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Illustration<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Ted Nordhaus writes at The EcoModernist Why I Stopped Being a Climate Catastrophist,<\/strong><\/a>
And why so many climate pragmatists can\u2019t quit catastrophism.<\/strong>  Excerpts in italics with my bolds and added images.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the book Break Through<\/strong>, Michael Shellenberger and I argued that if the world kept burning fossil fuels at current rates, catastrophe was virtually assured.  I no longer believe this hyperbole. Yes, the world will continue to warm<\/strong> as long as we keep burning fossil fuels. And sea levels will rise<\/strong>. About 9 inches over the last century, perhaps another 2 or 3 feet over the course of the rest of this century. But the rest of it? Not so much.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"A<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

There is little reason to think that the Amazon is at risk of collapsing over the next 50 years. Agricultural yield and output will almost certainly continue to rise, if not necessarily at the same rate as it has over the last 50 years. There has been no observable increase in meteorological drought<\/strong> globally that might trigger the resource wars that the Pentagon was scenario planning back then.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Graph
Figure 3: CMIP6 GCM ensemble mean simulations spanning from 1850 to 2100, employing historical effective radiative forcing functions from 1850 to 2014 (see Figure 1C) and the forcing functions based on the SSP scenarios 1-2.6, 2-4.5, 3-7.0, and 5-8.5. Curve colors are scaled according to the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of the models. The right panels depict the risks and impacts of climate change in relation to various global Reasons for Concern (RFCs) (IPCC, 2023). (Adapted from Scafetta, 2024).<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

At the time that we published Break Through, I, along with most climate scientists and advocates, believed<\/strong> that business as usual emissions would lead to around five degrees of warming by the end of this century<\/strong>. As Zeke Hausfather, Glen Peters,<\/a> Roger Pielke Jr, and Justin Richie<\/a> have demonstrated over the last decade or so, that assumption was never plausible.  <\/strong>The class of scenarios<\/strong> upon which it was based assumed<\/strong> very high population growth, very high economic growth, and slow technological change. None of these trends individually track<\/strong> at all with actual long term global trends.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fertility rates have been falling, global economic growth slowing,
and the global economy decarbonizing for decades.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"A<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

As a result of these dynamics,\u00a0most estimates of worst case warming<\/strong>\u00a0by the end of the century\u00a0now suggest 3 degrees or less.<\/strong>\u00a0But as consensus around these estimates has shifted, the\u00a0reaction to this good news<\/strong>\u00a0among much of the climate science and advocacy community has not been to become less catastrophic. Rather, it has been\u00a0to simply shift the locus of catastrophe from five to three degrees<\/strong>\u00a0of warming.\u00a0Climate advocates<\/strong>\u00a0have arguably become\u00a0more catastrophic<\/strong>\u00a0about climate change in recent years,\u00a0not less<\/strong>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"A<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

When Is Weather Climate Change?<\/strong><\/em><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

For me, the cognitive dissonance began as I became familiar with Roger Pielke Jr\u2019s work on normalized hurricane losses, in the late 2000s.<\/strong> This was around the time that a lot of messaging<\/strong> from the climate advocacy community had started to focus on extreme weather events,<\/strong> not just as harbingers for the storms of our grandchildren, to borrow the title of James Hansen\u2019s 2009 book, but as being fueled by climate change in the present.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

If you want to know why Pielke has been so demonized over the last
15 years by climate activists and activist climate scientists,
it\u2019s because he got in the way of this new narrative.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Graph
Integrated Storm Activity Annually over the Continental U.S. (ISAAC)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Pielke\u2019s work, going back to the mid-1990s\u00a0showed<\/strong>, again and again, that the\u00a0normalized economic costs of climate related disasters weren\u2019t increasing, despite the documented warming of the climate<\/strong>. And unlike a lot of researchers who sometimes produce studies that cut against the climate movement\u2019s chosen narratives, he wasn\u2019t willing to be quiet about it<\/strong>.\u00a0Pielke got in the way of the advocacy community<\/strong>\u00a0at the moment that it was determined to argue that present day disasters were driven by climate change\u00a0and got run over.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Diagram<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Put these\u00a0two factors<\/strong>\u00a0together\u2014the\u00a0outsized influence that exposure and vulnerability have on the cost<\/strong>\u00a0of extreme climate and weather phenomena,\u00a0and<\/strong>\u00a0the\u00a0very modest intensification that climate change contributes<\/strong>\u00a0to these events, when it plays any role at all\u2014and what should be clear is that climate change is contributing very little to present day disasters. It is\u00a0a relatively small factor in the frequency and intensity of climate hazards<\/strong>\u00a0that are experienced by human societies,\u00a0which in turn play a small role<\/strong>\u00a0in the human and economic costs of climate related disasters\u00a0compared to non-climate factors.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"A<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

This also means that the scale of anthropogenic climate change<\/strong> that would be necessary to<\/strong> very dramatically intensify those hazards, such that they overwhelm the non-climate factors<\/strong> in determining the consequences of future climate related events, is implausibly large. <\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

A Sting in the Tail?<\/strong><\/em><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

For a long time, even after I had come to terms with the fundamental disconnect between what climate advocates were saying about extreme events and the role that climate change could conceivably be playing, I held on to the possibility of catastrophic climate futures based upon uncertainty.<\/strong> The sting, as they say, is in the tail, meaning so-called fat tails in the climate risk distribution. These are tipping points<\/strong> or similar low probability, high consequence scenarios<\/strong> that aren\u2019t factored into central estimates. The ice sheets could collapse<\/strong> much faster than we understand or the gulf stream might shut down,<\/strong> bringing frigid temperatures to western Europe, or permafrost and methane hydrates<\/strong> frozen in the sea floor might rapidly melt<\/strong>, accelerating warming.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

But like the supposed collapse of the Amazon, once you look more closely at these risks<\/strong> they don\u2019t add up to catastrophic outcomes for humanity. <\/strong> While sensationalist news stories frequently refer to the collapse of the gulf stream, what they are really referring to is the slowing of the Atlantic Meridian Overturning Circulation (AMOC). AMOC helps transport warm water to the North Atlantic and moderates winter temperatures across western Europe.<\/strong> But its collapse<\/strong>, much less its slowing, would not result in a hard freeze across all of Europe.<\/strong> Indeed, under plausible conditions in which it might significantly slow, it would act as a negative feedback, counterbalancing warming, which is happening faster across the European continent than almost any place else in the world.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Infographic<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Permafrost and methane hydrate thawing, meanwhile, are\u00a0slow processes not fast ones<\/strong>. Even irreversible melting would occur over millennial timescales, fast in geological terms but very slow in human terms. The same is true of accelerated\u00a0melting of ice caps.<\/strong>\u00a0Even under very high warming scenarios, broadly acknowledged today as improbable, the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets contribute around a meter of sea level rise by the end of this century. Those processes would continue far into the future. But even very accelerated scenarios for rapid disintegration of ice sheets\u00a0unfold over many centuries, not decades.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"A<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Moreover, the problem with grounding strong precautionary claims<\/strong> in these known unknowns is that doing so demands strong remedies in the present in response to future risks that are both unquantifiable and unfalsifiable,<\/strong> a problem made even worse by the fact that \u201cfat tail\u201d proponents generally then proceed to ignore the fact that the unknown, unquantifiable, and unfalsifiable risks they are referring to are incredibly low probability and instead set about centering them in the climate discourse.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Clean Energy Without Catastrophism<\/strong><\/em><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Why do so many smart people, most trained as scientists, engineers, lawyers, or public policy experts, and all who will tell you, and I say this not ironically, that they \u201cbelieve in science,\u201d get the science of climate risk so badly wrong?<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

There are, in my view, several reasons.<\/strong> The first<\/strong> is that highly educated people with high<\/strong> levels of science literacy<\/strong> are no less likely to get basic scientific issues wrong<\/strong> than anyone else when the facts conflict with their social identities and ideological commitments.<\/strong> Yale Law Professor Dan Kahan has shown that people<\/strong> who are highly concerned about climate change<\/strong> actually have less accurate views about climate change<\/a><\/strong> overall than climate skeptics and that this remains true even among partisans with high levels of education and general science literacy. Elsewhere, Kahan and others have demonstrated that on many issues, highly educated people are often more likely to stubbornly hold onto erroneous beliefs<\/strong><\/a> because they are more expert at defending their political views and ideological commitments.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"A<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The second reason<\/strong> is that there are strong social, political, and professional incentives<\/strong> if you make a living doing left of center climate and energy policy to get climate risk wrong. The capture of Democratic and progressive politics by environmentalism<\/strong> over the last generation has been close to total. There is little tolerance on the Left<\/strong> for any expression of materialist politics that challenge foundational claims of the environmental movement.  Meanwhile the climate movement has effectively conflated consensus science<\/strong> about the reality and anthropogenic origins of climate change with catastrophist claims about climate risk for which there is no consensus whatsoever.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"A<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Whether you are an academic researcher, a think tank policy wonk, a program officer at an environmental or liberal philanthropy, or a Democratic Congressional staffer, there is simply no benefit and plenty of downside to questioning, much less challenging, the central notion<\/strong> that climate change is an existential threat to the human future. It\u2019s a good way to lose friends or even your job. It won\u2019t help you get your next job or your next grant. And so everyone, mostly falls in line. Better to go along to get along.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finally<\/strong>, there is a widespread belief<\/strong> that one can\u2019t make a strong case for clean energy and technological innovation absent the catastrophic specter of climate change.<\/strong> \u201cWhy bother with nuclear power or clean energy if climate change is not a catastrophic risk,\u201d is a frequent response. And this view simply ignores the entire history of modern energy innovation<\/strong>. Over the last two centuries, the world has moved inexorably from dirtier and more carbon intensive technologies to cleaner ones. Burning coal, despite its significant environmental impacts, is cleaner than burning wood and dung. Burning gas is cleaner than coal. And obviously producing energy with wind, solar, and nuclear is cleaner than doing so with fossil fuels.<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"A<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

There is a view among most climate and clean energy advocates<\/strong> that the risk of climate change both demands and is necessary to justify a much faster transition toward cleaner energy technologies.<\/strong> But as a practical matter, there is no evidence<\/strong> whatsoever that 35 years of increasingly dire rhetoric and claims<\/strong> about climate change have had any impact on the rate<\/strong> at which the global energy system has decarbonized and by some measure, the world decarbonized faster over the 35 years prior to climate change emerging as a global concern than it did in the 35 years since.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite some tonal, tactical, and strategic differences, this basic view of climate risk, and<\/strong> corresponding demand for a rapid transformation<\/strong> of the global energy economy is broadly shared<\/strong> by the climate activists and the pragmatists. The impulse is millenarian, not meliorist.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"An<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Underneath the real politik, technocratic wonkery, and appeals
to scientific authority is a desire to remake the world.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

For all its worldly and learned affect, what that has resulted in is the creation of an insular climate discourse on the Left<\/strong> that may be cleverer by half than right wing dismissals of climate change but is no less prone to making misleading claims<\/strong> about the subject, ignoring countervailing evidence, and demonizing dissent<\/strong>. And it has produced a politics<\/strong> that is simultaneously grandiose and maximalist and, increasingly, deeply out of touch with popular sentiment.<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"A<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Fertility rates have been falling, global economic growth slowing,
\nand the global economy decarbonizing for 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Day, Another Model of Future Climate Doom","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"24\/07\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"From the\u00a0Institute for Basic Science\u00a0and the \u201cwe\u2019re all gonna die\u201d department comes Episode #2971 of model madness via press release: Earth\u2019s future climate at 9 km worldwide resolution","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate 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change.\u00a0Led by nations like Vanuatu, this legal campaign asks the ICJ to define the obligations of states to combat climate change and protect vulnerable countries.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"climate activists\"","block_context":{"text":"climate activists","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-activists"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/00caballo-de-troya-scaled-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/00caballo-de-troya-scaled-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/00caballo-de-troya-scaled-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/00caballo-de-troya-scaled-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, 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The Biden-Harris administration has pledged billions of US tax dollars for \u201cglobal climate\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Biden-Harris Administration\"","block_context":{"text":"Biden-Harris Administration","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=biden-harris-administration"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/00Screenshot-2024-10-25-181250.png?fit=1200%2C663&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/00Screenshot-2024-10-25-181250.png?fit=1200%2C663&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/00Screenshot-2024-10-25-181250.png?fit=1200%2C663&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/00Screenshot-2024-10-25-181250.png?fit=1200%2C663&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/00Screenshot-2024-10-25-181250.png?fit=1200%2C663&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":351347,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=351347","url_meta":{"origin":395297,"position":3},"title":"Maple Syrup and Hot Air: Debunking Canada\u2019s Climate Hype \u2013 The Climate Realism Show\u00a0#135","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"16\/11\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"On Episode #135 of The Climate Realism Show, we welcome the co-authors of Energy & Climate at a Glance: Canadian Edition, which outlines why the climate plans of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau\u2019s climate plans will cause economic hardship in Canada and will do nothing measurable to improve the global climate.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/00Screenshot-2024-11-16-102629.png?fit=1200%2C629&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/00Screenshot-2024-11-16-102629.png?fit=1200%2C629&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/00Screenshot-2024-11-16-102629.png?fit=1200%2C629&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/00Screenshot-2024-11-16-102629.png?fit=1200%2C629&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/00Screenshot-2024-11-16-102629.png?fit=1200%2C629&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":360194,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=360194","url_meta":{"origin":395297,"position":4},"title":"UN\u2019s new mission: \u2018Fight the climate-related disinformation running rampant on social media\u2019 \u2013 \u2018Debunk myths & put an end to the narratives of denialism\u2019 \u2013 \u2018Global Initiative for Information Integrity on Climate Change\u2019","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"03\/01\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"UN.org excerpt:\u00a0The Brazilian government, the United Nations and UNESCO are joining forces to strengthen research and measures to address disinformation campaigns that are delaying and derailing climate action.","rel":"","context":"In \"Censorship\"","block_context":{"text":"Censorship","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=censorship"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/01686261953147.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/01686261953147.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/01686261953147.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/01686261953147.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/01686261953147.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":342475,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=342475","url_meta":{"origin":395297,"position":5},"title":"Is Australia Deferring 2035 Climate Targets Until After the US Election?","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"09\/09\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Is the entire global climate movement a political chimera driven by US taxpayer cash? Is the world dancing to America\u2019s tune?","rel":"","context":"In \"2035 Climate Targets\"","block_context":{"text":"2035 Climate Targets","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=2035-climate-targets"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/OIG.OGT3Tpa.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/OIG.OGT3Tpa.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/OIG.OGT3Tpa.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/OIG.OGT3Tpa.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/395297","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=395297"}],"version-history":[{"count":11,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/395297\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":395327,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/395297\/revisions\/395327"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/395325"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=395297"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=395297"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=395297"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}