{"id":393964,"date":"2025-08-09T12:33:38","date_gmt":"2025-08-09T10:33:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=393964"},"modified":"2025-08-09T12:33:56","modified_gmt":"2025-08-09T10:33:56","slug":"false-stories-in-the-new-york-times-and-the-seattle-times-on-western-washington-megafires","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=393964","title":{"rendered":"False Stories in the New York Times and the Seattle Times on Western Washington Megafires"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"A<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Cliff Mass Weather Blog<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By CliffMass<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

False Stories in the New York Times and the Seattle Times on Western Washington Megafires<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Yesterday, the New York Times ran a story that was blatantly false, with the Seattle Times featuring it as well. <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"A<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The claim:  that Western Washington will experience more “megafires” due to human-caused global warming (climate change).  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Unfortunately, the writer of this story (a Washington State stringer for the NY Times) failed to examine the historical record or the best science, getting the essential facts wrong.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"Logo<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n
\n
\"A<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n
\n
\"Logo<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n
\"Headline<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

How do I know the writer got it wrong?  <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because for the past two years, I have researched this very issue and just published a paper on this topic in the peer-reviewed literature (here<\/a>).  I have read every paper and report on this issue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Research<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

So exactly that did the NY Times (and the Seattle Times) get wrong?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The article defines megafires as ones that involve hundreds of thousands of acres.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

How many such fires have occurred since 1900 in western Washington?<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ONE.<\/strong>  The Yacolt Fire of 1902 (238,000 acres), just north of the Columbia River.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Map<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Has there been an increase in the number or size of large western Washington fires during the past 50 years, a period in which the Earth and our region have warmed?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The answer is no, which alone should make one doubt the NY Times claims.   <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

If global warming contributes to big fires, we should be seeing increases in the number of big western Washington fires due to such climate change.  We are not.  <\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The reason for this lack of correlation between warming and big local fires is clear.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Big western Washington fires are very different animals from the small localized westside fires, such as the current Bear Gulch fire on the Olympic Peninsula (about 4000 acres now).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To have a “megaburn” burn in western Washington, one needs strong, sustained easterly (winds from the east.   <\/strong> No matter what the temperature, no matter what the prior rainfall, without strong easterly winds we do not get westside megafires.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is very difficult to produce large wildfires in the very moist environment of western Washington forests.  Only strong easterly winds make it possible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

How do I know this?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because in my research (again published), I looked at EVERY large western Washington and Oregon fire of the past 150 years, examining all available weather observations and simulating most of them with a modern high-resolution model (see sample below of near-surface winds for the 1902 Yacolt fire, colors indicate wind speed).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"A<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Every one of them was associated with strong easterly flow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So what does this have to do with climate change and global warming?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

It turns out that strong easterly winds are REDUCED  in our area under global warming\/climate change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

You read that right.  The threat of the necessary strong easterly winds is LESSENED by climate change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I can tell you why.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anthropogenic (human-caused) global warming is greater in the interior of continents than over the slower-to-warm oceans.  Virtually every climate simulation shows this…it is not controversial (see example below from regional climate runs made by my group)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Heat<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Warm air is less dense than cold air, which results in preferential pressure declines inland than over the slower-to-warm coastal areas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If pressure falls more inland (where it warms more), then winds tend to move from west to east (air tends to blow from a high-pressure area to a lower-pressure pressure).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Onshore flow like this is just the OPPOSITE of that needed for big western Washington wildfires.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To put it succinctly:  the NY Times and Seattle Times not only got the story wrong, they got it REVERSED.   Global warming will reduce the potential for western Washington mega-wildfires because the necessary easterly winds are weakened.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The writer of this story did not bother to examine the frequency of local megafires nor understand the meteorology that drives them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Such sloppy and poorly researched “journalism” misinforms readers and leads to poor decision-making.    Very disappointing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Yesterday, the New York Times ran a story that was blatantly false, with the Seattle Times featuring it as well.
\nThe claim: that Western Washington will experience more “megafires” due to human-caused global warming (climate change). <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":393966,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"Discover the truth behind megafires in Western Washington and why claims of increased danger may be misguided. Read Clifford Mass's analysis.","jetpack_seo_html_title":"Debunking False Claims of Megafires in Western 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