{"id":393797,"date":"2025-08-08T20:24:11","date_gmt":"2025-08-08T18:24:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=393797"},"modified":"2025-08-08T20:24:28","modified_gmt":"2025-08-08T18:24:28","slug":"noaa-prediction-remains-on-track-for-above-normal-atlantic-hurricane-season","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=393797","title":{"rendered":"NOAA: Prediction remains on track for above-normal Atlantic hurricane season"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"Aerial<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Anthony Watts<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

From the \u201cwe\u2019ll see, but it doesn\u2019t look promising so far\u201d department\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

National Weather Service Public Affairs, nws.pa@noaa.gov<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

August 7, 2025<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season enters its historical peak, atmospheric and oceanic conditions continue to favor an above-normal season as NOAA first predicted in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Forecasters from NOAA\u2019s National Weather Service<\/a> updated the number of expected named storms to 13-18(with winds of 39 mph or greater), of which 5-9 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater), including 2-5 major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The adjusted ranges are for the entire season from June 1 though November 30, and are inclusive of the four named tropical storms that have already formed. In the Atlantic basin, a typical hurricane season<\/a> will yield 14 named storms, of which seven become hurricanes and three become major hurricanes. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The likelihood of above-normal activity is 50%, a 35% chance of a near-normal season, and a 15% chance of a below-normal season. This updated prediction is similar to the initial outlook issued in May.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cNOAA stands ready to provide the forecasts and warnings that are vital for safeguarding lives, property, and communities,\u201d said Acting NOAA Administrator Laura Grimm. \u201cAs we enter the second half of the season, this updated hurricane outlook serves as a call to action to prepare now, in advance, rather than delay until a warning is issued.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Infographic<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

A summary infographic with a pie chart showing hurricane season probability and numbers of named storms predicted, according to NOAA\u2019s updated 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook on August 7, 2025. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

So far, the season has produced four named tropical storms and no hurricanes<\/a>. Tropical Storm Chantal made the first U.S. landfall of the season and brought high winds and deadly flooding to the Carolinas during the Independence Day holiday weekend. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cNo two storms are alike,\u201d said NOAA\u2019s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham. \u201cEvery storm presents unique, life-threatening hazards that can impact people in both coastal and inland communities. Have a plan in place, and know the actions you should take before, during and after the wide range of hazards that the hurricane season can bring.\u201d  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Atlantic basin tropical storm activity is expected to be elevated due to a combination of factors, including warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Seas, and an active West African Monsoon. ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue, meaning there is neither an El Nino nor La Nina to influence this season\u2019s storm activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"A<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The alphabetical list of 2025 Atlantic tropical cyclone names as chosen by the World Meteorological Organization with storms that have occurred so far this season (as of August 7, 2025) indicated by an orange slash through the name. Find a text version of this list at hurricanes.gov\/aboutnames.shtml#atl<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cMany of the factors we identified ahead of the season are still at play, and conditions are largely tracking along with our May predictions,\u201d said Matt Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA\u2019s National Centers for Environmental Prediction, part of the National Weather Service. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

NOAA\u2019s outlook for a below-average Eastern Pacific season \u2014 with 12-18 named storms \u2014 remains on track, but it did have a rapid start with nine named storms. The Central Pacific outlook remains unchanged, calling for 1-4 named storms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

About NOAA\u2019s Hurricane Season Outlook<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

NOAA\u2019s Hurricane Season Outlook is for overall seasonal activity and is not a landfall forecast. Landfalls are largely determined by short-term weather patterns, which are only predictable within about a week of a storm potentially reaching a coastline. NOAA\u2019s National Hurricane Center<\/a> provides tropical weather outlooks out to seven days in advance, provides track and intensity forecasts for individual storms and issues watches and warnings for specific tropical storms, hurricanes and the associated storm surge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Stay informed:<\/strong> Consult the National Hurricane Center website, hurricanes.gov<\/a>, for the latest about tropical storm and hurricane activity in the Atlantic and Pacific Ocean basins. You can also follow regular updates from NHC on X at @NHC_Atlantic<\/a> and on Facebook<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"A<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
Climate, weather, and water affect all life on our ocean planet. NOAA\u2019s mission is to understand and predict our changing environment, from the deep sea to outer space, and to manage and conserve America\u2019s coastal and marine resources. See how NOAA science, services, and stewardship benefit your community: Visit\u00a0noaa.gov<\/a>\u00a0for our\u00a0latest news and features<\/a>, and\u00a0join us on social media<\/a>.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

From the \u201cwe\u2019ll see, but it doesn\u2019t look promising so far\u201d department\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":393802,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"Discover NOAA's updated prediction for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season, forecasting above-normal activity with storms expected.","jetpack_seo_html_title":"2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA's Updated 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The whole post is factual and straightforward. Climate change is not\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0no-landfalls.png?fit=1200%2C668&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0no-landfalls.png?fit=1200%2C668&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0no-landfalls.png?fit=1200%2C668&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0no-landfalls.png?fit=1200%2C668&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0no-landfalls.png?fit=1200%2C668&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":420977,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=420977","url_meta":{"origin":393797,"position":5},"title":"Atlantic Hurricane Season\u00a02025","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"01\/11\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"By far the most complete and robust data we have for hurricanes is for those which have hit the US coast. The US Hurricane Research Division, which is part of the Federal agency NOAA, have data going back as far as 1851. According to them, hurricane data is pretty reliable\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Atlantic Hurricane Season\"","block_context":{"text":"Atlantic Hurricane Season","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=atlantic-hurricane-season"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/AQNQjjXjEchEt8PH6BUA5CzyQwvjuBh7BLKw7e3mxeI-BXCg02t4Ebxu13GaLV187gsAp8zLOY0pbktHwuik-A3hoo0xvh-w-V_BGN7WwCd_0T56WyFGWRjqdXhlEC_5cLfZQS7JnW5ZVPo0oLrFO2IREMsXlA.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/AQNQjjXjEchEt8PH6BUA5CzyQwvjuBh7BLKw7e3mxeI-BXCg02t4Ebxu13GaLV187gsAp8zLOY0pbktHwuik-A3hoo0xvh-w-V_BGN7WwCd_0T56WyFGWRjqdXhlEC_5cLfZQS7JnW5ZVPo0oLrFO2IREMsXlA.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/AQNQjjXjEchEt8PH6BUA5CzyQwvjuBh7BLKw7e3mxeI-BXCg02t4Ebxu13GaLV187gsAp8zLOY0pbktHwuik-A3hoo0xvh-w-V_BGN7WwCd_0T56WyFGWRjqdXhlEC_5cLfZQS7JnW5ZVPo0oLrFO2IREMsXlA.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/AQNQjjXjEchEt8PH6BUA5CzyQwvjuBh7BLKw7e3mxeI-BXCg02t4Ebxu13GaLV187gsAp8zLOY0pbktHwuik-A3hoo0xvh-w-V_BGN7WwCd_0T56WyFGWRjqdXhlEC_5cLfZQS7JnW5ZVPo0oLrFO2IREMsXlA.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/AQNQjjXjEchEt8PH6BUA5CzyQwvjuBh7BLKw7e3mxeI-BXCg02t4Ebxu13GaLV187gsAp8zLOY0pbktHwuik-A3hoo0xvh-w-V_BGN7WwCd_0T56WyFGWRjqdXhlEC_5cLfZQS7JnW5ZVPo0oLrFO2IREMsXlA.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/393797","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=393797"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/393797\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":393806,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/393797\/revisions\/393806"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/393802"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=393797"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=393797"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=393797"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}