{"id":391371,"date":"2025-07-29T09:28:57","date_gmt":"2025-07-29T07:28:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=391371"},"modified":"2025-07-29T09:29:06","modified_gmt":"2025-07-29T07:29:06","slug":"ceres-satellite-data-suggests-low-climate-sensitivity","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=391371","title":{"rendered":"CERES Satellite Data Suggests Low Climate Sensitivity"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"Dramatic<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Anthony Watts<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

From the Friends of Science Society<\/a> Newsletter, where they give our own Willis Eschenbach props and suggestions for his important recent work \u2013 Anthony<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Clouds and the Earth\u2019s Radiant Energy System (CERES) project<\/a> provides satellite-based observations of Earth\u2019s radiation budget and clouds. CERES instruments on several satellites measure longwave and shortwave radiation from the Earth. The longwave radiation is the radiation emitted upward to space from the Earth\u2019s surface and clouds. The upward shortwave radiation is the reflected solar radiation which doesn\u2019t enter the climate system. If the outgoing longwave radiation is less than the absorbed solar radiation, there is a positive top-of-atmosphere radiative imbalance (imbalance) which increases the global average temperature.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"A
Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is a measure of how much the Earth\u2019s global average surface temperature will eventually increase in response to a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. Image by Anthony Watts<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Willis Eschenbach used the CERES database, which gives the monthly radiative fluxes in each 1\u00b0 latitude by 1\u00b0 longitude starting March 2000, to calculate<\/a> the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) to greenhouse gases. He produced a graph of imbalance versus the surface temperature by 1\u00b0 latitude by 1\u00b0 longitude with time averaged over 24 years. Eschenbach applied a lowess fit<\/a> to the data. He calculated the slope of that fit and calculated the area weighted imbalance per degree of temperature change.  Eschenbach asks \u201cHow much does the earth have to warm up to restore the 3.7 watts per square meter (W\/m2<\/sup>) of TOA radiation imbalance that is said to result from a doubling of CO2<\/sub> (2xCO2<\/sub>)?\u201d Willis says the amount of warming required to rebalance the imbalance is called the ECS, but I believe that isn\u2019t correct. The imbalance is not at an equilibrium state but is the result of a continual increase of greenhouse gases.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The transient climate response (TCR) is the change in temperature after a doubling of CO2<\/sub> at a constant increase of a 1%\/year, which would result in a doubling in 70 years. The actual average CO2<\/sub> increase from 2000 to 2024 was 0.567%\/year. Willis calculates the imbalance at 6.6 W\/m2<\/sup> per \u00b0C of surface temperature change. This equates to a TCR 3.7\/6.6 = 0.56 \u00b0C, which is the TCR at 0.567%\/year CO2<\/sub> increase. I call this the \u201cslowTCR\u201d, to distinguish it from the normal TCR with a 1%\/yr CO2<\/sub> increase. Using a simple 1-D climate model tuned to 3-D models, with CO2<\/sub> increasing at the actual rate, I calculated that the slowTCR of 0.56 \u00b0C corresponds to an ECS of 0.68 \u00b0C, which seem much too low compared to other observation-based estimates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I did a similar calculation using the same CERES data. Each data point is 1\u00b0 latitude by 4\u00b0 longitude. I applied a 4th-order polynomial fit to the average 25-year data (16200 data points) as shown in this graph<\/a>. I made another graph<\/a> of the slope of the fitted curve and calculated a global average imbalance of 3.95 W\/m2<\/sup> per \u00b0C of surface temperature change, which corresponding to a slowTRC of 0.94 \u00b0C and an ECS of 1.14 \u00b0C. The lowess fit heavily discounts data further away from the mean to discount outliers. The polynomial fit might be better as all the data is of equally high quality. Changing the best fit method has a large effect on the results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Several papers, see here<\/a> and , here<\/a>, argue that cloud cover can change due to atmospheric circulation changes caused by a temperature change. The analysis by Eschenbach and myself using time averaged CERES data doesn\u2019t account for this possible effect and assumes that any potential temperature-caused air circulation changes will not significantly change the relationship between imbalance and temperature over the next few decades of climate change. Therefore, I did the same calculation using the four coldest years of the CERES data (2000, 2001,2008, 2011) and the four warmest years (2018, 2019,2023, 2024). The global average temperature difference between these year groups is 0.68 \u00b0C. If the air circulation changes were causing more warming, the result of the warm years would show a lower imbalance change per temperature change than the cold years. In fact, the warm years analysis has a slightly smaller change of 0.13 W\/m2<\/sup>\/\u00b0C, so it appears that this effect is leading to more warming. Therefore, the method we used to estimate ECS is likely inaccurate. It is not a simple task to estimate the ECS.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

From the\u00a0Friends of Science Society\u00a0Newsletter, where they give our own Willis Eschenbach props and suggestions for his important recent work \u2013 Anthony<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":391375,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"Explore how CERES data reveals Earth's climate sensitivity and the implications of CO2 on global temperatures.","jetpack_seo_html_title":"Understanding Earth\u2019s Climate Sensitivity: Insights from CERES","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691836845,691829997,691819127,691818432,691836842,691836843,691836844],"class_list":{"0":"post-391371","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-atmospheric-circulation","9":"tag-carbon-dioxide-co","10":"tag-climate-sensitivity","11":"tag-clouds","12":"tag-earths-radiant-energy-system-ceres","13":"tag-radiative-fluxes","14":"tag-surface-temperature-change","16":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/AQMYbziJPlrNfPw2fMRJSk9XYLefd1KxspQL-TrOX9jYRkF0-tyDdM5MrlJOBPPBzpD6ebOxbZbmOgsTAC3-o7v5RDmM91gO9hdtwDLqC0fPadckbZp46VIkQNXeefytpqp_gCHmsU4-s4bPOcrM-d9E8xbskg.jpeg?fit=1280%2C1280&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1DOr","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":336492,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=336492","url_meta":{"origin":391371,"position":0},"title":"CERES team presentations at the DDP conference in El Paso, TX, July 2024","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"15\/07\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The CERES team were kindly invited to contribute not just one, but three presentations at the Doctors for Disaster Preparedness (DDP)\u2019s 42nd annual conference. This year it was hosted in El Paso, TX and the theme was \u201cAre We in a Hybrid War on Science and the West?\u201c.","rel":"","context":"In \"CERES team\"","block_context":{"text":"CERES team","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=ceres-team"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/15628779830_875c4f3759_k.jpg?fit=1200%2C636&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/15628779830_875c4f3759_k.jpg?fit=1200%2C636&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/15628779830_875c4f3759_k.jpg?fit=1200%2C636&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/15628779830_875c4f3759_k.jpg?fit=1200%2C636&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/15628779830_875c4f3759_k.jpg?fit=1200%2C636&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":380952,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=380952","url_meta":{"origin":391371,"position":1},"title":"Not All That Sensitive","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"30\/05\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The sensitivity of the surface to changes in absorbed radiation is a central, critical question in climate science. The claim is that the change in global average temperature is equal to the change in absorbed radiation times the \u201cequilibrium climate sensitivity\u201d, abbreviated as ECS. The ECS is assumed to be\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"absorbed radiation\"","block_context":{"text":"absorbed radiation","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=absorbed-radiation"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/0ChatGPT-Image-30.-Mai-2025-19_08_36.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/0ChatGPT-Image-30.-Mai-2025-19_08_36.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/0ChatGPT-Image-30.-Mai-2025-19_08_36.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/0ChatGPT-Image-30.-Mai-2025-19_08_36.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":338319,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=338319","url_meta":{"origin":391371,"position":2},"title":"Unconventional Sign Conventions","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"02\/08\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The CERES project has advanced the state-of-the-art in Earth Radiation Budget (ERB) observations through improved accuracy of the CERES instruments and extensive use of coincident higher spatial resolution spectral imager measurements on both low-Earth orbit and geostationary platforms. 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