{"id":390488,"date":"2025-07-24T09:07:07","date_gmt":"2025-07-24T07:07:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=390488"},"modified":"2025-07-24T09:07:08","modified_gmt":"2025-07-24T07:07:08","slug":"where-are-the-updated-ndcs","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=390488","title":{"rendered":"Where Are The Updated\u00a0NDCs?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Paul Homewood<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
https:\/\/www.climatewatchdata.org\/ndc-tracker<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Paris Agreement requires countries to submit new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) every five years, reflecting progressively higher ambition and taking into account each country\u2019s capacity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With COP30 just months away, all of the 197 countries that belong to the United Nations were supposed to have submitted updated national climate plans to the UN<\/a> by February this year. These plans outline how each country will cut its greenhouse gas emissions by 2035 in line with the Paris Agreement<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But as the ClimateWatch map shows above, only 27 countries, accounting for only 21% of global emissions have bothered to do so.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Worse still for those bothered about such things, one of the 27 is the US, who submitted its plan before Trump took office and promptly withdrew from Paris! I think we can safely assume their NDC is now in the bin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inevitably the UK heads the list of lemmings. And as Climate Action Tracker<\/a> explain, many of the new NDCs represent lower ambitions, not higher. They comment about Brazil, for instance:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Brazil submitted a target to reduce emissions between 59\u201367% below 2005 levels by 2035. Assessing the ambition of this target has been difficult due to the lack of transparency on how much the land sector sink will contribute to the target, given the country\u2019s need for urgent reductions in the energy sector.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This results in an extraordinarily wide range of estimated emissions from all other sectors (excl. LULUCF) that are consistent with the NDC target. The lack of transparency is a clear issue for climate integrity \u2013 the public and the scientific community need to be able to understand what a government is proposing to do and in the present situation, Brazil\u2019s NDC provides no clarity on this. We conclude that Brazil\u2019s 2035 NDC target is not 1.5\u00b0C compatible.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Canada too are fudging their targets:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Canada\u2019s 2035 NDC sets a target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 45\u201350% below 2005 levels by 2035. However, this target is based on a \u2018gross-net\u2019 approach, where reductions from the land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector are counted towards achievement, even though LULUCF is excluded from the baseline. This approach reduces the pressure to achieve real reductions in fossil fuel emissions and introduces uncertainty into the stringency of the target.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Indeed, according to them, the UK is the only bright spot!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even the EU, it seems, is haggling over whether to allow the purchase of international carbon credits to offset emissions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It goes without saying that there are no updated NDCs from China, India or any of the other major emitting developing Asian nations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Paris Agreement requires countries to submit new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) every five years, reflecting progressively higher ambition and taking into account each country\u2019s capacity.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":390492,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691836763,691833140,691833142,691820492,691824179],"class_list":{"0":"post-390488","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-climatewatch","9":"tag-cop30","10":"tag-nationally-determined-contributions-ndcs","11":"tag-paris-agreement","12":"tag-united-nations-un","14":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/49563f71-a6b5-4f56-9335-0e58ceb9ef6e.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1DAc","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":360101,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=360101","url_meta":{"origin":390488,"position":0},"title":"Brazil\u2019s Paris Pledge Lies in\u00a0Tatters","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"02\/01\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Brazil adopted the Paris Agreement and submitted its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to the UNFCCC in 2016 and its Updated NDC in 2020 in support of its adaptation commitments and continued economic and social development agendas. Through its NDC, Brazil has committed to reduce its GHG emissions by 37% below\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Brazil\"","block_context":{"text":"Brazil","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=brazil"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0Brazils-Paris-Pledge.png?fit=1200%2C628&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0Brazils-Paris-Pledge.png?fit=1200%2C628&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0Brazils-Paris-Pledge.png?fit=1200%2C628&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0Brazils-Paris-Pledge.png?fit=1200%2C628&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0Brazils-Paris-Pledge.png?fit=1200%2C628&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":408184,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=408184","url_meta":{"origin":390488,"position":1},"title":"The End of\u00a0Paris?","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"14\/10\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"A comparison of the 30 countries that emit more than 0.5% of global greenhouse (GHG) emissions (see the European Commission\u2019s emissions database) with the UN\u2019s Nationally Determined Contributions Registry\u00a0reveals that 21 of them failed to register updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) as required by Article 3 of the 2015 Paris\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"below 2\u00b0C\"","block_context":{"text":"below 2\u00b0C","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=below-2c"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0AQPluMKe4OA4YE-gOvDPk9E36GD-xfpWqermNvH7hie1Oqmo8xuzL6VSM9OMjIV1TczL4gVhjPU-3BYkPS42nLt9jgOfvJeg2EvRsRqb9CDqC2twLfRLmt73q7CuLsxE-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C678&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0AQPluMKe4OA4YE-gOvDPk9E36GD-xfpWqermNvH7hie1Oqmo8xuzL6VSM9OMjIV1TczL4gVhjPU-3BYkPS42nLt9jgOfvJeg2EvRsRqb9CDqC2twLfRLmt73q7CuLsxE-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C678&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0AQPluMKe4OA4YE-gOvDPk9E36GD-xfpWqermNvH7hie1Oqmo8xuzL6VSM9OMjIV1TczL4gVhjPU-3BYkPS42nLt9jgOfvJeg2EvRsRqb9CDqC2twLfRLmt73q7CuLsxE-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C678&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0AQPluMKe4OA4YE-gOvDPk9E36GD-xfpWqermNvH7hie1Oqmo8xuzL6VSM9OMjIV1TczL4gVhjPU-3BYkPS42nLt9jgOfvJeg2EvRsRqb9CDqC2twLfRLmt73q7CuLsxE-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C678&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0AQPluMKe4OA4YE-gOvDPk9E36GD-xfpWqermNvH7hie1Oqmo8xuzL6VSM9OMjIV1TczL4gVhjPU-3BYkPS42nLt9jgOfvJeg2EvRsRqb9CDqC2twLfRLmt73q7CuLsxE-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C678&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":360211,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=360211","url_meta":{"origin":390488,"position":2},"title":"Mexico\u2019s Emissions Con\u00a0Trick","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"03\/01\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Mexico is another country which continues to increase emissions. 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The resulting targeted emissions in 2030 would be higher than they were in 2015!","rel":"","context":"In \"carbon dioxide (CO\u2082)\"","block_context":{"text":"carbon dioxide (CO\u2082)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=carbon-dioxide-co%e2%82%82"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0mexico-city-smog1.webp?fit=1200%2C501&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0mexico-city-smog1.webp?fit=1200%2C501&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0mexico-city-smog1.webp?fit=1200%2C501&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0mexico-city-smog1.webp?fit=1200%2C501&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0mexico-city-smog1.webp?fit=1200%2C501&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":413255,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=413255","url_meta":{"origin":390488,"position":3},"title":"EU To Make Climate Education\u00a0Mandatory","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"15\/11\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"EARTHDAY.ORG (EDO), the global organizer of the Earth Day movement\u2014observed by more than one billion people each April 22\u2014celebrates the European Union\u2019s landmark decision to integrate climate education into school curricula from kindergarten through grade 12, as part of its 2025 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to the Paris Agreement.","rel":"","context":"In \"climate education\"","block_context":{"text":"climate education","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-education"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Orwell-1984-Ministry-of-Truth.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Orwell-1984-Ministry-of-Truth.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Orwell-1984-Ministry-of-Truth.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Orwell-1984-Ministry-of-Truth.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Orwell-1984-Ministry-of-Truth.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":365560,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=365560","url_meta":{"origin":390488,"position":4},"title":"What\u2019s going to happen at\u00a0COP30?","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/02\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Less than a year ago I posted a short article asking the above question, but about COP29. 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