{"id":390438,"date":"2025-07-23T16:35:37","date_gmt":"2025-07-23T14:35:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=390438"},"modified":"2025-07-23T16:35:38","modified_gmt":"2025-07-23T14:35:38","slug":"no-more-easy-ride-for-wind-and-solar-obbb-guidance-risks-ahead","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=390438","title":{"rendered":"No More Easy Ride for Wind and Solar (OBBB guidance, risks ahead)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Master Resource<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By\u00a0<\/em>Lisa Linowes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

New wind and solar projects are expected to decline sharply over the next two years as the One Big Beautiful Bill\u2019s strict tax credit rules, supply chain restrictions, and aggressive enforcement drive up costs and risk. With subsidies set to expire after 2027 for new projects, the decades-long era of easy tax-driven renewable development is coming to an end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cUnder the new law, eligibility for the Production Tax Credit<\/a> (PTC) and Investment Tax Credit<\/a> (ITC) has become far more complex and legally uncertain. That\u2019s by design. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act prioritizes strengthening America\u2019s energy system with reliable, dispatchable power\u2014not tax-driven projects that weaken the grid\u2019s resilience.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBB)<\/a> marks a major shift in U.S. energy policy\u2014one that places American taxpayers and national interests squarely at the center of federal energy incentives. For too long, generous tax credits for wind, solar, and battery projects disproportionately benefited developers and tax equity investors, often with little scrutiny over whether those projects served meaningful economic or national objectives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Under the new law, eligibility for the Production Tax Credit<\/a> (PTC) and Investment Tax Credit<\/a> (ITC) has become far more complex and legally uncertain. That\u2019s by design. The OBBB prioritizes strengthening America\u2019s energy system with reliable, dispatchable power\u2014not tax-driven projects that weaken the grid\u2019s resilience.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For tax equity investors\u2014whose participation depends on predictable tax credit monetization\u2014this new environment is especially risky. Without assurance that a project will ultimately qualify, many may refuse to invest. Legal opinions that once provided comfort may now come with significant qualifications<\/a>, leaving developers and investors navigating far more uncertain terrain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the heart of this shift are three critical risks: stricter scrutiny of what qualifies as \u201cbeginning construction,\u201d tough new supply chain rules aimed at eliminating dependence on Foreign Entities of Concern (FEOCs), and an aggressive enforcement mandate delivered by executive order<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The sections below explain how these reforms work together to protect taxpayers, reduce federal exposure to questionable projects, and ensure that any future renewable development serves America\u2019s long-term economic and national security priorities\u2014not just the financial interests of developers and investors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Preventing Construction Timeline Gaming<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

One of the most immediate risks centers on how\u2014and when\u2014a renewable energy project is deemed to have \u201cbegun construction.\u201d The OBBB codifies the IRS\u2019s longstanding tests<\/a>\u2014the Physical Work Test and the 5 percent Safe Harbor\u2014as they existed on January 1, 2025. But codification should not be mistaken for certainty. Key terms like \u201cphysical work of a significant nature\u201d remain undefined in both statute and guidance, giving Treasury ongoing discretion to interpret or narrow their application.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Timing is critical. Projects that begin construction between July 4, 2025, and July 4, 2026, have a four-year window to complete construction and be placed in service while still qualifying for credits. Any project that starts on or after July 5, 2026, faces a hard deadline\u2014completion by the end of 2027\u2014or it forfeits eligibility for the PTC and ITC. This compressed timeline is likely to sharply reduce new project starts after July 4, 2026. (See Table)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This looming deadline creates predictable pressure on developers to lock-in their construction start dates during the 12-month window following enactment. However, developers and investors must understand the limits of the safe harbor protections. The four-year safe harbor only applies to the continuity requirement\u2014that is, assuming construction genuinely began, the IRS will not second-guess whether the project progressed continuously if it meets the deadline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But the IRS still retains full authority to examine whether construction genuinely \u201cbegan\u201d in the first place. If the facts suggest that a developer\u2019s claimed start of construction was superficial, premature, or staged merely to preserve tax credit eligibility, the IRS may disallow credits retroactively\u2014regardless of whether the four-year window was met.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Developers and tax equity investors must be prepared to substantiate not only that they met the timeline but that they genuinely satisfied the start-of-construction standard with credible, documented evidence of real construction activity. Anything less leaves the project\u2014and the tax credits\u2014exposed to challenge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reckoning for Foreign Supply Chains<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The second major compliance challenge comes from the OBBB\u2019s new restrictions on the use of materials and components sourced from Foreign Entities of Concern<\/a>. For years, renewable developers relied on opaque global supply chains\u2014especially in China\u2014for solar panels, wind turbine parts, and battery components. These foreign sources often have ties to forced labor, military-linked entities, or regimes hostile to U.S. interests.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wind and solar projects that start construction in 2026 and expect PTC or ITC support must meet a strict Material Assistance Cost Ratio<\/a> (MACR) threshold: at least 40% of direct material costs must come from non-prohibited sources. For projects starting construction in 2027 the ratio increases to 45%.[1]<\/a> Failing to meet the threshold disqualifies the project from federal tax credits.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This compliance burden will drive many developers to accelerate their construction start dates into 2025, before the FEOC restrictions kick in. The OBBB\u2019s statutory anti-circumvention language grants Treasury sweeping authority to conduct audits and deny credits subject to lookback periods up to six years even if construction tests appear satisfied\u2014based on \u201cfacts and circumstances.\u201d Activities that once sufficed, such as stockpiling equipment or off-site prep work, may no longer be viewed as legitimate. Developers who start construction in 2026 must secure sworn certification from every supplier\u2014under penalty of perjury\u2014that no component or subcomponent was produced by, on behalf of, or controlled by a prohibited foreign entity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Date<\/strong><\/td>Policy\/Restriction Triggered<\/strong><\/td>Impact<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Before 2025;
January 1 2025 -July 3, 2025<\/strong><\/td>		Prior to OBBB Enactment<\/td>Not impacted by OBBB
<\/td><\/tr>
July 4, 2025<\/strong><\/td>OBBB Enactment Date<\/td>Developers will likely rush to \u201cbegin construction\u201d to qualify under existing tax credit rules before new restrictions hit.<\/td><\/tr>
July 4, 2025 \u2013 July 4, 2026<\/strong><\/td>12-Month \u201cBegin Construction\u201d Window<\/td>Projects started in this window get a 4-year completion window and avoid post-2026 restrictions, but risk heightened scrutiny over whether construction genuinely began.<\/td><\/tr>
January 1, 2026<\/strong><\/td>FEOC Restrictions Begin<\/td>Projects must begin complying with Foreign Entity of Concern (FEOC) sourcing rules \u2014 starting with a 40% U.S. or allied-sourced material threshold for wind\/solar projects.<\/td><\/tr>
July 5, 2026<\/strong><\/td>Post-Window Construction Restriction<\/td>Projects started on or after this date must be placed in service by the end of 2027 \u2014 eliminating long construction timelines and likely curtailing new starts.<\/td><\/tr>
Six-Year Clawback Window<\/strong><\/td>IRS Enforcement Period<\/td>The IRS can audit and claw back tax credits up to 6 years on FEOC sourcing violations, heightening long-term compliance risks.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Executive Order: A Broader Mandate for Strict Enforcement<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

On July 7, 2025, President Trump issued an Executive Order (E.O.) amplifying the OBBB\u2019s enforcement agenda. The E.O. directs the Treasury Department to take \u201call action as the Secretary deems necessary\u201d to prevent manipulation of both the FEOC compliance requirements and the construction start tests\u2014even in cases where the statute itself is silent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The E.O. reinforces the OBBB\u2019s core objectives but does not expand Treasury\u2019s legal authority beyond what the statute provides. Instead, the EO signals the administration\u2019s clear intent to enforce the law aggressively, particularly regarding \u201cbegin construction\u201d compliance and foreign supply chain restrictions. While the EO cannot create new penalties or rewrite statutory definitions, its real impact lies in shaping agency behavior\u2014prioritizing strict audits, tougher guidance, and heightened regulatory oversight. In this sense, the E.O. magnifies the compliance risk developers and investors face under the OBBB, even though it does not alter the legal framework itself.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The E.O.\u2019s mandate ensures that even technically compliant projects may face rigorous scrutiny\u2014and potential retroactive challenge\u2014if the government questions the substance of their construction start or supplier certifications.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Conclusion: The Reckoning Has Arrived<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The OBBB and its companion Executive Order create a regulatory environment defined by aggressive oversight, stricter compliance demands, and real financial consequences. The dual burden of proving construction compliance and navigating complex foreign supply chain restrictions\u2014often years after tax credits are claimed\u2014will transform clean energy finance into a riskier, more disciplined endeavor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For investors, the stakes are higher than ever. Without solid legal opinions, verifiable supplier chains, and consistent enforcement policies, many may choose to exit the market. For those who stay, the cost of risk will rise\u2014along with the overall cost of renewable energy deployment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And that\u2019s exactly the point. For years, critics warned that renewable subsidies enriched private developers while delivering uncertain public value. The OBBB responds to those concerns by closing loopholes, demanding verifiable construction, and limiting reliance on hostile foreign suppliers. We can expect the result to be fewer speculative projects, more disciplined accounting, and a market correction long overdue. For Americans seeking reliable, affordable, and sovereign energy\u2014this is the reckoning they\u2019ve been waiting for.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2014 \u2014 \u2014 \u2014 \u2014 \u2014<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lisa Linowes is an energy policy analyst and executive director of WindAction Group<\/a>, where she monitors utility-scale renewable energy development and the public policies that shape its deployment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

[1]<\/a> For energy storage projects, the MACR threshold begins at 55% in 2026 and rises by 5 percentage points annually, reaching 75% for projects beginning after 2029.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

New wind and solar projects are expected to decline sharply over the next two years as the One Big Beautiful Bill\u2019s strict tax credit rules, supply chain restrictions, and aggressive enforcement drive up costs and risk. With subsidies set to expire after 2027 for new projects, the decades-long era of easy tax-driven renewable development is coming to an end.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":390441,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691836753,691835795,691836752,691836754,691818818,691818728],"class_list":["post-390438","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-investment-tax-credit-itc-2","tag-one-big-beautiful-bill","tag-production-tax-credit-ptc-2","tag-protect-taxpayers","tag-tax-credits","tag-wind-and-solar","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/AQMVGYL0dROptMX3xxysa6wrofx3QTC76QbsXh5T5yWF7xAOkHV7imJ1wMpWzC-BFAXaSVHQ3nM1h_5FEQnBlyfuiMJD-xQqqir0ZLfuZ3bZEAZvxAm40ezARDGXvq0kLVgtY3inkwi8fSATb14o5LN3rFMFw.jpeg?fit=1280%2C1280&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1Dzo","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":432806,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=432806","url_meta":{"origin":390438,"position":0},"title":"Energy Realists Saved the US Grid (Alex\u00a0Epstein)","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"03\/20\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Last year, America was already in a serious electricity reliability crisis. 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Anytime you screw with the market, you get screwy results, and this is titanic screwing. Watching it could be great fun.","rel":"","context":"In \"Renewable projects\"","block_context":{"text":"Renewable projects","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=renewable-projects"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/ChatGPT-Image-13.-Juni-2025-09_53_14.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/ChatGPT-Image-13.-Juni-2025-09_53_14.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/ChatGPT-Image-13.-Juni-2025-09_53_14.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/ChatGPT-Image-13.-Juni-2025-09_53_14.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/ChatGPT-Image-13.-Juni-2025-09_53_14.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/390438","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=390438"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/390438\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":390443,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/390438\/revisions\/390443"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/390441"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=390438"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=390438"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=390438"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}