{"id":390410,"date":"2025-07-23T09:23:56","date_gmt":"2025-07-23T07:23:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=390410"},"modified":"2025-07-23T09:23:57","modified_gmt":"2025-07-23T07:23:57","slug":"claim-climate-crisis-food-price-inflation-delivered-victory-to-president-trump","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=390410","title":{"rendered":"Claim: Climate Crisis Food Price Inflation Delivered Victory to President Trump"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Essay by\u00a0<\/strong>Eric Worrall<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nothing to do with Biden and Kamala\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Rising food prices driven by climate crisis threaten world\u2019s poorest, report finds<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

High cost of staples due to extreme weather could lead to more malnutrition, political upheaval and social unrest<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sarah Butler<\/a>
Mon 21 Jul 2025 09.01 AEST<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

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\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

New research links last year\u2019s surges in the price of potatoes in the UK, cabbages in South Korea, onions in India, and cocoa in Ghana to weather extremes that \u201cexceeded all historical precedent prior to 2020\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It found food price spikes can have a wider economic impact, making it harder for economies to keep down overall inflation and so, for example, bring interest rates down. A hot dry spring in the UK this year, for example, partly drove unexpectedly high UK inflation figures<\/a> published last week, dampening expectations for further interest rate cuts this summer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The report also suggests \u201chigh rates of inflation can directly alter election outcomes in modern democracies\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Maximilian Kotz, a Marie Curie postdoctoral research fellow at Barcelona Supercomputing Center and the lead author of the report, said: <\/strong>\u201cIt is clear the cost of living played a role in last year\u2019s election in the US.<\/strong>\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He added: \u201cThese effects are going to continue to become worse in the future.<\/strong> Until we get to net zero emissions extreme weather will only get worse, but it\u2019s already damaging crops and pushing up the price of food all over the world.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cPeople are noticing, with rising food prices No 2 on the list of climate impacts they see in their lives, second only to extreme heat itself.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026Read more:\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/business\/2025\/jul\/21\/rising-food-prices-driven-by-climate-crisis-threaten-worlds-poorest-report-finds<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

The study referenced by the article (I think);<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Climate extremes, food price spikes, and their wider societal risks<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Maximilian Kotz, Markus Donat, Tom Lancaster, Miles Parker, Pete Smith, Anna Taylor Smith and Sylvia H Vetter<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Accepted Manuscript online 13 June 2025 \u2022 \u00a9 2025 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Article information<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Abstract<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

2024 was the hottest year on record, with global temperatures exceeding 1.5\u00b0C above preindustrial climate conditions for the first time and records broken across large parts of Earth\u2019s surface. Among the widespread impacts of exceptional heat, rising food prices are beginning to play a prominent role in public perception, now the second most frequently cited impact of climate change experienced globally, following only extreme heat itself. Recent econometric analysis confirms that abnormally high temperatures directly cause higher food prices, as impacts on agricultural production translate into supply shortages and food price inflation. These analyses track changes in overall price aggregates which are typically slow-moving, but specific food goods can also experience much stronger short-term spikes in response to extreme heat. In this perspective, we document numerous examples from recent years in which food prices of specific goods spiked in response to climate extremes. By evaluating the extremity of the associated climate conditions, we thereby build a global and climatological context for this phenomenon. We further review the knock-on societal risks which these effects may bring with the ongoing intensification of extremes under climate change. These range from increasing economic inequality and the burden on health systems, as well as destabilising monetary and political systems. We discuss challenges and priorities for research and policy to address these risks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Read more:\u00a0https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1748-9326\/ade45f\/meta<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

The main study highlights the risk for low-income households.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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A catalyst for wider societal risks<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Importantly, these climate-driven food price spikes can aggravate risks across a range of sectors of society. First, rising food prices have direct implications for food security, particularly for low-income households.<\/strong> This can result in a) households spending the same but buying less (either going hungry or depending on sources of charity); b) spending the same but buying cheaper options (typically cutting out nutritious foods like fruits and vegetables which are more expensive sources of calories) c) spending an even higher proportion of their income on food (with knock on effects on other areas of essential expenditure). These effects can be strongly regressive given the substantial disparities in the share of income spent on food by low- and high-income households. For example, in the USA the lowest income quintile spends approximately 33% of income on food compared to 8% in the highest income quintile. The fact that larger price increases occur in hotter and typically poorer countries will further amplify these effects<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fourth, food price inflation associated with climate-extremes may come to bear increasing political relevance. Anecdotal evidence from across history often cites food price increases as a precursor to political unrest and social upheaval (from the French and Russian revolutions of the 18th and 20th centuries, to the 2008\/09 food crisis and 2011 Arab Spring). Such links are substantiated further by evidence showing a robust relationship between food prices and social unrest at monthly time-scales. Moreover, high rates of inflation can directly alter election outcomes in modern democracies. For example, high inflation reduced support for incumbent Democrats in the 2024 US election<\/strong>, and boosted support for extremist, anti-system and populist parties in elections held in advanced economies since 1948. These effects can be particularly strong when inflation affects real wages, as is the case with food prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026Read more: Same link as above<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

The suggestion climate change is a major driver of food inflation is absurd, given the impact\u00a0climate policies<\/em>\u00a0in the USA and elsewhere have on farm input and food distribution prices. For example, California, arguably the most extreme green state in the union, farmers and truckers pay more for diesel that pretty much anywhere else in the USA. Such prices are a consequence of California\u2019s regulatory hostility towards fossil fuel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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EIA diesel prices. Source\u00a0EIA.gov<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

These higher input prices, driven by state regulations, also appear to be impacting food prices in California, along with all the other environmental regulations California inflicts on farmers. California with its benign climate and fertile farmlands should have the cheapest food prices in the union, but that isn\u2019t the case.<\/p>\n\n\n

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Grocery Basket Prices by State. Source\u00a0World Population Review<\/a>, Fair Use, Low Resolution Image to Identify the Subject.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Obviously diesel prices aren\u2019t the only factor, California\u2019s overregulation of industry and radical minimum wage policies also play a part. But diesel prices are important to farming and shipping of produce.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

California governor Gavin Newsom appears to have belatedly realised his administration could be the next victim of climate policy inflation voter backlash, if California does not change course.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Gavin Newsom Begs Regulators To Keep Refineries In Biz After California Dems Ran Industry Out Of Town<\/a><\/blockquote>