{"id":390171,"date":"2025-07-22T15:05:25","date_gmt":"2025-07-22T13:05:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=390171"},"modified":"2025-07-22T15:05:26","modified_gmt":"2025-07-22T13:05:26","slug":"climate-oscillations-10-aleutian-low-beaufort-sea-anticyclone-albsa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=390171","title":{"rendered":"Climate Oscillations 10: Aleutian Low \u2013 Beaufort Sea Anticyclone (ALBSA)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Andy May<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Aleutian Low \u2013 Beaufort Sea Anticyclone climate index or ALBSA<\/a> is designed to compare the Aleutian Low Pressure and the Beaufort Sea High Pressure Centers. The intent is to relate air circulation patterns in the North Pacific and Arctic to climate and the timing of spring sea ice and snow melt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Calculation method:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The ALBSA index is calculated using 4 points from the NCEP\/NCAR Reanalysis Dataset: The following 850mb geopotential height<\/a> points are used in the calculation:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

N<\/strong>: 75\u00b0 N, 170\u00b0 W<\/p>\n\n\n\n

S<\/strong>: 50\u00b0 N, 170\u00b0 W<\/p>\n\n\n\n

E<\/strong>: 55\u00b0 N, 150\u00b0 W<\/p>\n\n\n\n

W<\/strong>: 55\u00b0 N, 200\u00b0 W (160\u00b0 E)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ALBSA = [E \u2013 W] \u2013 [N \u2013 S]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Use of the ALBSA index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Christopher Cox<\/a> and his colleagues at NOAA developed ALBSA as an indicator of snowmelt timing in the Pacific Arctic on the North Slope of Alaska (Cox, et al., 2019). The timing is influenced by the marine air drawn (advected) to the Beaufort Sea Arctic region from the Aleutian low pressure region. When air is drawn from the Aleutians to the Beaufort Sea, it warms the area, and an early snow melt is observed on the North Slope of Alaska. The pattern illustrated in figure 1 is for 2002 when an early snowmelt was observed in May.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"
Figure 1. The air circulation pattern for May 2002, when the North Slope snow melted early. The four points used in the computation of the ALBSA index are identified, the data used for the calculation is from the\u00a0NCEP-NCAR reanalysis dataset.<\/a>\u00a0The precise points used are identified in the text above. The contours are temperature (K) and the arrows are wind vectors at 850 mb (~1.5 km). The blue dot is Utqia\u0121vik and the red dot is Oliktok, both towns are in Alaska. The dashed brown line is the high-pressure ridge. Source: (Cox, et al., 2019).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Figure 1 illustrates the typical circulation pattern for years with early melting snow and ice. The air from the Aleutian low pressure region moves eastward and then trends northward through the Bering Strait to the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas. The average ALBSA 850 mb geopotential height (GPH) anomaly in May 2002 was about 69 meters and for the entire spring (March-June) it was 91.1 meters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For comparison the same map is presented for 1988 as figure 2, when the snowmelt was late. In that year it did not start until June.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"
Figure 2. A map of the ALBSA Index in 1988, a late snowmelt year. Notice the circulation is not through the Bering Strait, but to Northern Canada. The blue arrow is the Beaufort Sea anticyclone (\u201cBSA\u201d), with easterly winds, it only appears in late years. These winds delay the melt. \u201cAL\u201d identifies the Aleutian Low Pressure region. Source: (Cox, et al., 2019).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

The major characteristic of late years is the presence of the Beaufort Sea Anticyclone (BSA), this pushes cold Arctic air to the North Slope which delays melting. For the month of June, the ALBSA 850 mb geopotential height (GPH) anomaly was 7.9 meters and for the 1988 spring it was -90.3 meters. That is the North-South difference was much larger than the east-west difference in 850 mb geopotential height.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Like many other climate oscillations, the ALBSA index has been trending positive in recent decades. That means the Beaufort Sea Anticyclone has been weakening, causing a warmer North Slope. This is illustrated in figure 3.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Figure 3. Both the spring ALBSA (gray) and the 5-year smoothed spring ALBSA (orange) are plotted. The late snowmelt year 1988, and the early snowmelt year of 2002 are marked. In addition, the 1977 and 1997 PDO climate shifts from\u00a0post 8\u00a0<\/a>are marked.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

As illustrated in figure 1, the 2002 spring had an early melt and no Beaufort Sea Anticyclone. In that year the May ALBSA anomaly was +68.9 m and the average spring ALBSA anomaly was +91.1 m, the melt occurred May 23. In 1988 the melt was very late, June 18, and the spring average ALBSA anomaly was -90.3 m. That spring had a strong Beaufort Sea anticyclone, which kept the North Slope of Alaska cold for a longer period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The correlation between ALBSA and HadCRUT5 is poor, and the trends do not match. However, it does correlate decently with the NPI, which was discussed in post #8<\/a>. NPI and ALBSA are compared in figure 4. They are not perfectly correlated but they both trend positively since the 1980s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Figure 4. A comparison of the ALBSA spring 850-mb GPH anomaly, both one-year and five-year averages to the full-year and five year average NPI from\u00a0post #8<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

ALBSA correlates with snowmelt in Northern Alaska and the onset of sea ice melting in the adjacent seas. It also captures some of the variability in the NPI.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Discussion<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The timing of snow and sea ice melting is important because the albedo of ice and snow is very high, whereas the albedo of meltwater is very low. This contrast makes a significant difference in the absorption of solar radiation and the resulting warming rate of the surface and lower troposphere as the sun re-enters the polar sky in the spring. Measurements of absorbed energy on the North Slope of Alaska have shown that early melts, for example May 13, 2016, can absorb 30% or more solar energy than late melts, for example June 18, 2017 (Cox C., et al., 2018). Further, as sea ice melts, it allows heat trapped under the ice to escape into the atmosphere.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

AR6<\/a> does not mention ALBSA or the NPI<\/a> or discuss if they are reproduced in the CMIP6 climate models. However, given that the models do not reproduce the NAO or AO (see post 9<\/a>) or the Aleutian Low very well (AR6, page 1381) we assume that ALBSA is not reproduced well by the models. The PDO<\/a> is discussed in AR6, and it is related to both the NPI and ALBSA. The PDO is very poorly reproduced in the CMIP6 climate models (AR6<\/a>, page 427 & 503). AR6 often refers to the PDO as \u201cPDV\u201d and claims that since the CMIP6 models cannot duplicate it, it must be random internal variablity, even though the PDO oscillations are statistically significant (Mantua, et al., 1997) & (Ebbesmeyer, et al., 1990).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is logical that ALBSA affects the pattern of Northern Hemisphere warming and cooling, but it does not correlate well with HadCRUT5. The next post will discuss the Oceanic Ni\u00f1o Index or ONI<\/a>, which is used to define the El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a ENSO states.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Download the bibliography here<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Previous posts in this series:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Musings on the AMO<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Bray Cycle and AMO<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Climate Oscillations 1: The Regression<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Climate Oscillations 2: The Western Hemisphere Warm Pool (WHWP)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Climate Oscillations 3: Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Area<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Climate Oscillations 4: The Length of Day (LOD)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Climate Oscillations 5: SAM<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Climate Oscillations 6: Atlantic Meridional Model<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Climate Oscillations 7: The Pacific mean SST<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Climate Oscillations 8: The NPI and PDO<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Climate Oscillations 9: Arctic & North Atlantic Oscillations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Aleutian Low \u2013 Beaufort Sea Anticyclone climate index or\u00a0ALBSA\u00a0is designed to compare the Aleutian Low Pressure and the Beaufort Sea High Pressure Centers. The intent is to relate air circulation patterns in the North Pacific and Arctic to climate and the timing of spring sea ice and snow melt.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":390182,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691836718,691836719,691818153,691835905],"class_list":{"0":"post-390171","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-aleutian-low","9":"tag-beaufort-sea-anticyclone-climate-index","10":"tag-climate-models","11":"tag-climate-oscillations","13":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/0AQPuLKs2CQGbfYkSqLzLa-0RIwmY8F9ORWiykYa_b8prYj70ilKc3ldJ0DWXuJdXy6K5x0srT-WmWrzKjMl7GmIUdge7KaUanHcl0EQjC354pkMtFPtA87JVc_oZL0IKoA-FmrRa_m80UmnAhcdXrunqX48H-Q-1.jpeg?fit=1280%2C1280&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1Dv5","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":192396,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=192396","url_meta":{"origin":390171,"position":0},"title":"Where Did Okhotsk Sea Ice Go?","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"19\/03\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"A post last month noted that Arctic ice extent in February unusually exceeded 15M km2 (15 Wadhams).\u00a0 This was despite slower than usual recovery of ice in Sea of Okhotsk.\u00a0 That early 2022 peak ice extent has passed and will now stand as 2022 annual maximum. 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