{"id":387204,"date":"2025-07-06T13:27:52","date_gmt":"2025-07-06T11:27:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=387204"},"modified":"2025-07-06T13:27:54","modified_gmt":"2025-07-06T11:27:54","slug":"met-office-caught-deliberately-choosing-an-unrealistic-scenario-to-predict-climate-doomsday","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=387204","title":{"rendered":"Met Office Caught Deliberately Choosing an Unrealistic Scenario to Predict Climate Doomsday"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From The Daily Sceptic<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By\u00a0Will Jones<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Revved up by the orgy of climate alarmism opportunities supplied by the recent heatwave, the Met Office has taken to making apocalyptic forecasts for the year 2070. In the Telegraph<\/em>, Matt Ridley takes the national forecaster to task<\/a> for basing these doomy predictions on modelling even the IPCC rejects. Here\u2019s an excerpt<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

The Met Office exists to forecast the weather. But increasingly it seems bored by the day job so it likes to lecture us about climate change. And here it seems to have been embarrassingly duped by activists. Go on its climate pages and you find a forecast for the year 2070, that summers will be between one and six degrees warmer and \u201cup to\u201d 60% drier, depending on the region. A lot of wriggle room in those caveats, note.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then it admits: \u201cWe base these changes on the RCP8.5 high emissions scenario.\u201d Aha! Unbelievably, shockingly, this national forecasting body has chosen as its base case for the future of weather a debunked, highly implausible set of assumptions about the world economy that was never intended to be used this way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

RCP8.5 is one of five projected futures for the world economy this century, dreamt up by economists. Here is what it assumes. First, the world becomes addicted to coal, burning 10 times \u2013 yes, 10 times! \u2013 as much coal in 2100 as we did in 2000 and even using coal to make fuel for aircraft and cars. Yes: that is really what it says. It projects that fully half of all the world\u2019s energy will be supplied by coal in 2100.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Second, it assumes that the world population will have swelled to 12 billion people by 2100, way more than any demographer thinks is likely. Third, it assumes that innovation will somehow dry up so there\u2019s hardly any new technology to make our lives more fuel-efficient \u2013 and we won\u2019t even try to cut emissions. In short, this scenario is barking mad.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Don\u2019t take my word for it. Here\u2019s what Carbon Brief<\/em>, an activist website, has to say: \u201cThe creators of RCP8.5 had not intended it to represent the most likely \u2018business as usual\u2019 outcome. \u2026 Its subsequent use as such represents something of a breakdown in communication between energy systems modellers and the climate modelling community.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warned that RCP8.5 should not be used as a forecast. And here\u2019s its chief creator, Keywan Riahi: \u201cI wished I would have been clearer with what I meant by \u2018business as usual\u2019.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Worth reading in full<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Revved up by the orgy of climate alarmism opportunities supplied by the recent heatwave, the Met Office has taken to making apocalyptic forecasts for the year 2070.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":387208,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691819134,691818153,691819743,691820826,691821240,691821642,691818808,691830969],"class_list":["post-387204","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-climate-alarmism","tag-climate-models","tag-climate-propaganda","tag-extreme-temperatures","tag-heatwave","tag-ipcc-intergovernmental-panel-on-climate-change","tag-met-office","tag-uk-weather","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/OIG-30.jpg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1CJe","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":257828,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=257828","url_meta":{"origin":387204,"position":0},"title":"Hot Summer? \u2013 Met Office Clowns Have Not Got A\u00a0Clue!","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/17\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The\u00a0Met Office\u00a0has given its verdict on reports claiming that \u201cAfrican plumes\u201d could bring multiple\u00a0heatwaves\u00a0to the UK this summer with temperatures in excess of 35C.","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0shutterstock_691981369.jpg?fit=1200%2C797&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0shutterstock_691981369.jpg?fit=1200%2C797&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0shutterstock_691981369.jpg?fit=1200%2C797&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0shutterstock_691981369.jpg?fit=1200%2C797&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0shutterstock_691981369.jpg?fit=1200%2C797&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":257636,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=257636","url_meta":{"origin":387204,"position":1},"title":"India\u2019s Heatwave A Year\u00a0On.","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/16\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"You will recall a heatwave in spring last year in India, with BBC claims of record temperatures in Delhi and Met Office claims that climate change is making such events 100 times more likely.","rel":"","context":"In \"BBC claims\"","block_context":{"text":"BBC claims","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=bbc-claims"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/077d89ef9cfd49629c3b3fdcc24a51abd.png?fit=1200%2C709&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/077d89ef9cfd49629c3b3fdcc24a51abd.png?fit=1200%2C709&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/077d89ef9cfd49629c3b3fdcc24a51abd.png?fit=1200%2C709&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/077d89ef9cfd49629c3b3fdcc24a51abd.png?fit=1200%2C709&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/077d89ef9cfd49629c3b3fdcc24a51abd.png?fit=1200%2C709&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":253941,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=253941","url_meta":{"origin":387204,"position":2},"title":"No, Great Britain News, 20\u00b0C Temperatures Will Not Cause Britons To \u2018Bake in a Heat Wave\u2019","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"04\/21\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Although the headline implies that the mini-heatwave is dangerous, \u201cUK weather: Mini-heatwave to see Britons bake in 20C heat as hot air sweeps in from Europe,\u201d data and the story itself say nothing of the kind.","rel":"","context":"In \"bake\"","block_context":{"text":"bake","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=bake"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0GBN_LOGO_MASTER_TAG_RGB-1.png?fit=1200%2C559&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0GBN_LOGO_MASTER_TAG_RGB-1.png?fit=1200%2C559&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0GBN_LOGO_MASTER_TAG_RGB-1.png?fit=1200%2C559&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0GBN_LOGO_MASTER_TAG_RGB-1.png?fit=1200%2C559&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0GBN_LOGO_MASTER_TAG_RGB-1.png?fit=1200%2C559&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":419835,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=419835","url_meta":{"origin":387204,"position":3},"title":"Richard Betts Fake Heatwave Deaths\u00a0Claim","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"01\/04\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Richard Betts, a prominent UK climate scientist (Head of Climate Impacts Research at the Met Office and Professor at the University of Exeter), appeared on Channel 4 News in early January 2026 discussing the UK's \"hottest year\" claims. During the segment, he reportedly referenced heat-related impacts, including an estimated 1,500\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"\u201chottest year evah in UK\u201d\"","block_context":{"text":"\u201chottest year evah in UK\u201d","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=hottest-year-evah-in-uk"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/AQN1IgTTruXGVL8rEJmXk1mFaL7h6055yzr_So3LYJeIS-BBmTdA2G90e6lR7OfcmmbwThzilUyTq7uDSHyz45tNhuk2312xa4lfRBCRRe3IzS7N_U5pq516WccdArWx.jpeg?fit=1200%2C916&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/AQN1IgTTruXGVL8rEJmXk1mFaL7h6055yzr_So3LYJeIS-BBmTdA2G90e6lR7OfcmmbwThzilUyTq7uDSHyz45tNhuk2312xa4lfRBCRRe3IzS7N_U5pq516WccdArWx.jpeg?fit=1200%2C916&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/AQN1IgTTruXGVL8rEJmXk1mFaL7h6055yzr_So3LYJeIS-BBmTdA2G90e6lR7OfcmmbwThzilUyTq7uDSHyz45tNhuk2312xa4lfRBCRRe3IzS7N_U5pq516WccdArWx.jpeg?fit=1200%2C916&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/AQN1IgTTruXGVL8rEJmXk1mFaL7h6055yzr_So3LYJeIS-BBmTdA2G90e6lR7OfcmmbwThzilUyTq7uDSHyz45tNhuk2312xa4lfRBCRRe3IzS7N_U5pq516WccdArWx.jpeg?fit=1200%2C916&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/AQN1IgTTruXGVL8rEJmXk1mFaL7h6055yzr_So3LYJeIS-BBmTdA2G90e6lR7OfcmmbwThzilUyTq7uDSHyz45tNhuk2312xa4lfRBCRRe3IzS7N_U5pq516WccdArWx.jpeg?fit=1200%2C916&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":332842,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=332842","url_meta":{"origin":387204,"position":4},"title":"Heatwave Alarm Season is Here – The Climate Realism Show\u00a0#114","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"06\/14\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"We see this every year, and we\u2019ll see it again this year as the feckless media regurgitates the heatwave hype. We will tackle this subject, as well as go over the Crazy Climate News of the Week. Tune in LIVE for the stream at 1 p.m. ET (noon CT) to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/0Screenshot-2024-06-14-185822.png?fit=1200%2C667&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/0Screenshot-2024-06-14-185822.png?fit=1200%2C667&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/0Screenshot-2024-06-14-185822.png?fit=1200%2C667&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/0Screenshot-2024-06-14-185822.png?fit=1200%2C667&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/0Screenshot-2024-06-14-185822.png?fit=1200%2C667&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":447301,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=447301","url_meta":{"origin":387204,"position":5},"title":"The 1947 Heatwave, Which The Met Office Keeps Quiet\u00a0About","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/29\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"We are told that these sort of temperatures are unheard of at this time of year and are only occurring because of climate change. Weather like this would have been impossible in the past, they infer. And it is an omen of what the future holds, as records successively get\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"1947 Heatwave\"","block_context":{"text":"1947 Heatwave","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=1947-heatwave"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-Copilot_The-1947-Heatwave-Which-The-Met-Office-Keeps-Quiet-About.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-Copilot_The-1947-Heatwave-Which-The-Met-Office-Keeps-Quiet-About.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-Copilot_The-1947-Heatwave-Which-The-Met-Office-Keeps-Quiet-About.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-Copilot_The-1947-Heatwave-Which-The-Met-Office-Keeps-Quiet-About.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/387204","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=387204"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/387204\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":387209,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/387204\/revisions\/387209"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/387208"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=387204"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=387204"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=387204"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}