{"id":386980,"date":"2025-07-04T17:50:00","date_gmt":"2025-07-04T15:50:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=386980"},"modified":"2025-07-04T17:50:01","modified_gmt":"2025-07-04T15:50:01","slug":"blessed-be-global-warming-there-were-more-big-cyclones-in-fiji-when-it-was-cold-200-years-ago","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=386980","title":{"rendered":"Blessed be global warming: There were more Big Cyclones in Fiji when it was cold 200 years ago"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From JoNova<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Jo Nova<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Cyclone Yasa, Fiji | Photo from Copernicus Sentinel-3 imagery<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The worst 53 cyclones that hit Fiji in the last 2,000 years were more common in the coldest times, not the warmest ones.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

We are told cyclones and extreme storms will be more intense<\/a> in a warmer world, will have stronger wind speeds, may retain their strength longer and do more damage, our homes will be uninsurable, and this is the new normal. But the evidence continues to grow that warm times are wonderful, and the last thing we want is a colder climate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There aren\u2019t many long records of cyclones in the South Pacific, which hasn\u2019t stopped climate experts blaming cars and burgers for horrible storms. But even though life on Earth depends upon understanding our climate, it\u2019s only now, after 40 years of panic, that finally that researchers have studied things like pebble layers, shell fragments, and coral rubble in Fiji to find out what has happened there in the past. Yanan Li and others drilled cores to find debris pushed 120m into the mangroves by the worst of the worst tropical cyclones.  Handily, they also had two bad storms recorded in the last century to calibrate what they found.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Awkwardly, the big storms were more common in the Little Ice Age. Basically, if we want fewer storms, we should pay people to burn oil and gas or at least give them a taxable discount for saving the world. *<\/p>\n\n\n\n

All those layers of rocks and shells and whatnot have been sitting there in the mud flats the whole time that the UN has been trying to save the world from \u201cclimate change\u201d:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Fig 3: The course anomaly (%) means the percentage of coarse particles in that layer that are > 63 micrometer. The sediment core they dug is in protected mudflats in mangroves that are 120m above the current high tide line. Storms surges rarely go that far.\u00a0 \u201cEvents\u201d means only major Cat 4-5 strength cyclones\/hurricanes per century. Obviously only the biggest storms (and presumably near direct hits) would leave sediments there. Some of the particles they found were > 1cm.\u00a0 Fiji gets a few named cyclones every year. But these won\u2019t have the energy to overtop the reef, break through mangroves, and carry sand and shells 120m inland.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

These results also match what researchers in Australian found (Haig, Nott and Reichart). Likewise other researchers, looking at the Indian Ocean found cyclones have been decreasing<\/a> as the world warmed in the last 70 years, which is also true in Australia since 1970<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
BOM\u00a0<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Instead of cyclones being driven by one kindergarten variable like sea-surface temperatures (or more stupidly, global<\/em> temperatures), it turns out that wind shear, humidity, local weather patterns, and things like La Nina conditions are probably a lot more important. If climate modelers had even the faintest clue of what drives the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, we could pretend to reduce storms by reducing La Nina conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Until then, any journalist claiming that extreme storms are the new-normal should be roasted for promoting misinformation, or just being a gormless mouthpiece for bankers, bureaucrats and The Blob.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Intense tropical cyclone activity over the past 2000 years at Bay of Islands, Fiji<\/a><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Yanan Li et al\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In this paper, we present a sedimentary record from a coastal karst basin in Bay of Islands, Vanua Balavu, Fiji to provide insight into the regional intense TC activity over the past two millennia. A total of 53 intense storm events captured by this site are identified using coarse fraction (>63 \u03bcm) anomalies in sediment core retrieved from the basin, yielding an overall average event frequency of 2.6 events\/century. Multiple centennial-scale quiescent periods (from 200 to 300 CE and 1000 to 1150 CE) and active periods (namely from 350 to 750 CE, 900 to 1000 CE, 1150 to 1250 CE, 1400 to 1500 CE, and 1650 to 2017 CE) are found in the reconstruction, and the most active interval spans from 1650 to 1800 CE at 4.5 events\/century.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Big storms appear to be less frequent in the medieval warm period too.  <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

A comparison between existing paleostorm records and climate forcing indices suggests that the southward displacement of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) during the Little Ice Age with more La Ni\u00f1a events is responsible for the basin-wide increasing of tropical cyclone activity in the South Pacific. Decline of TC occurrence in the western SP during the Medieval Climate Anomaly<\/strong> is attributed to the northward movement of SPCZ.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

*Obviously, we wouldn\u2019t pay people much<\/em> to emit CO2 because it wouldn\u2019t save us from the next Little Ice Age anyhow, but it will make plants grow, and that\u2019s worth something.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

REFERENCES<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Yanan Li et al (2025) Intense tropical cyclone activity over the past 2000 years at Bay of Islands, Fiji, Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, Volume 675<\/a>, 1 October 2025, 113090, https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.palaeo.2025.113090<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Haig, J., Nott, J. and Reichart, G. (2014)   Australian tropical cyclone activity lower than at any time over the past 550\u20131,500 years, Nature <\/em>505, 667\u2013671  doi:10.1038\/nature12882 [Abstract<\/a>]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Roose, S., Ajayamohan, R.S., Ray, P. et al.<\/em> Pacific decadal oscillation causes fewer near-equatorial cyclones in the North Indian Ocean. Nat Commun<\/em> 14<\/strong>, 5099 (2023).<\/a> https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41467-023-40642-x<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

We are told cyclones and extreme storms will be more intense in a warmer world, will have stronger wind speeds, may retain their strength longer and do more damage, our homes will be uninsurable, and this is the new normal. But the evidence continues to grow that warm times are wonderful, and the last thing we want is a colder climate.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":386988,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691829997,691818056,691836318,691818101,691826089,691836319,691819281,691821580,691827856,691836317],"class_list":{"0":"post-386980","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-carbon-dioxide-co","9":"tag-climate-change","10":"tag-coldest-times","11":"tag-cyclones","12":"tag-fiji","13":"tag-la-nina-conditions","14":"tag-little-ice-age","15":"tag-south-pacific-ocean","16":"tag-the-blob","17":"tag-worst-tropical-cyclones","19":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/0AQNE9m-vHY2t7WraL5DSk1JXgkxMzZfhaVDHKgXNooIqw78rE_GwnRL6-D_E0OXHArIjfyv3vqH_zw14HBKobSWHY1ihcptMxn0PRXJ01bT0Xj0j8u5Ivlq_4RZwR_X-Mcp5AOR2fqdYuLYtvTDINwOkOZx4-1.jpeg?fit=1280%2C1280&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1CFC","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":414817,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=414817","url_meta":{"origin":386980,"position":0},"title":"Stop Spreading False Alarms, Al Jazeera, Fijian Oyster Production Is Doing Well","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"26\/11\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"An article in Al Jazeera by Frankie Adkins, who covers climate and social justice issues, claims that climate change is harming Fiji\u2019s oyster (both pearl and meat) industry. This is flat-out false. As is true for oyster production globally, Fiji\u2019s pearl oyster and its nascent meat oyster industry have both\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Al Jazeera\"","block_context":{"text":"Al Jazeera","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=al-jazeera"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0oysters-4747796_1280.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0oysters-4747796_1280.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0oysters-4747796_1280.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0oysters-4747796_1280.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0oysters-4747796_1280.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":250136,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=250136","url_meta":{"origin":386980,"position":1},"title":"Sorry, Vanuatu, Trends Don\u2019t Support Climate Damages Claims in The Hague","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"29\/03\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"While Vanuatu claims is it particularly vulnerable to likely impacts of climate change, there are no specific harms it can attribute to human induced climate change.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/image-1229.png?fit=1200%2C674&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/image-1229.png?fit=1200%2C674&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/image-1229.png?fit=1200%2C674&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/image-1229.png?fit=1200%2C674&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/image-1229.png?fit=1200%2C674&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":352589,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=352589","url_meta":{"origin":386980,"position":2},"title":"Are Eastern Pacific Cyclones Become More Frequent or Stronger?","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"28\/11\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"During the past three days, I have received several calls from media folks asking the same question: Are storms like this week's \"bomb\" cyclone becoming stronger or more frequent due to global warming? 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The intensity question is left for future research. The researchers note that \u201aFor most tropical cyclone basins (regions where\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/00fsdds.jpg?fit=1005%2C836&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/00fsdds.jpg?fit=1005%2C836&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/00fsdds.jpg?fit=1005%2C836&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/00fsdds.jpg?fit=1005%2C836&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":394983,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=394983","url_meta":{"origin":386980,"position":5},"title":"CLAIM: North Atlantic faces more hurricane clusters as climate warms","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"13\/08\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"From Fudan University and the \u201cclustered climate science\u201d department comes this inanity. They can\u2019t show a trend in North Atlantic Hurricanes so they change the narrative to \u201cclusters\u201d of hurricanes. Of course, nobody could see such clusters before the satellite era, so what did they do? Make a \u201cprobabilistic framework\u201d\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0Screenshot-2025-08-13-203126.png?fit=1200%2C571&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0Screenshot-2025-08-13-203126.png?fit=1200%2C571&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0Screenshot-2025-08-13-203126.png?fit=1200%2C571&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0Screenshot-2025-08-13-203126.png?fit=1200%2C571&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0Screenshot-2025-08-13-203126.png?fit=1200%2C571&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/386980","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=386980"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/386980\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":386990,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/386980\/revisions\/386990"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/386988"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=386980"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=386980"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=386980"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}