{"id":385893,"date":"2025-06-30T09:57:00","date_gmt":"2025-06-30T07:57:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=385893"},"modified":"2025-06-30T09:57:01","modified_gmt":"2025-06-30T07:57:01","slug":"the-real-climate-science-crisis-cagw-hypothesis-lacks-scientific-evidence","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=385893","title":{"rendered":"The Real Climate Science Crisis: CAGW Hypothesis Lacks Scientific\u00a0Evidence"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Science Matters<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By\u00a0Ron Clutz<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

From C3 headlines The Real Climate Science Crisis: The Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming (CAGW) Hypothesis Is Without Scientific Evidence. <\/strong><\/a> Excerpts in italics with my added images.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For a hypothesis to reach<\/strong> the status of being a legit theory<\/strong>, it requires withstanding<\/strong> the onslaught of observed empirical evidence.<\/strong> The CAGW hypothesis is no such animal.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Known by its more contemporary aliases, such as\u201d climate crisis,\u201d \u201cclimate emergency,\u201d \u201cclimate collapse,\u201d or \u201cexistential threat,\u201d the\u00a0CAGW has zero empirical evidence to support it.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Unlike the related hypothesis regarding greenhouse gases (GHG) and global warming, at least the GHG hypothesis has warming global temperature data<\/strong> that somewhat coincides with increasing atmospheric CO2 levels<\/strong>, putting aside the growing possibility that the purported cause-and-effect direction is probably the reverse.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In order to reach a CAGW climate disaster, global warming
<\/strong>temperatures must change rapidly in an accelerating manner
that will initiate a \u2018tipping point\u2019 for the climate.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The rapid acceleration would present its occurrence in a continuous increasing of the slope<\/strong>, i.e., trend, of temperatures, such as monthly temperatures. Each subsequent month<\/strong> would represent a greater temperature magnitude increase<\/strong> than the month before, hypothetically.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

But those tipping point precursors are not occurring in the real-world climate.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

For example<\/strong>, it is agreed by all climate scientists that oceans<\/strong> play a very major role in the world\u2019s climate and its global temperatures due to their being both the world\u2019s largest carbon sink and its largest heat content storage.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, despite these characteristics, in totality, the global oceans HAVE NOT warmed since the year 2014<\/strong>. And certainly, there is no empirical evidence<\/strong> that oceans<\/strong> exhibit constant temperature increases of magnitude.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Quite the contrary<\/strong>, combined oceans exhibit a regular pattern of temperature decreases and increases,<\/strong> as the adjacent plot of NOAA\u2019s monthly ocean data indicates.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Specifically, this is a plot (dark blue) of moving 5-year temperature changes ending each month<\/strong> of the 60-year period from March 1963 through March 2023.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

[Explanation: the first data point<\/strong> is the temperature change for the 60 months ending on March 30, 1963<\/strong>; and the chart\u2019s last<\/strong> temperature change data point is for the five 5 years<\/strong> (i.e. 60 months) ending on March 2023<\/strong>.]<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

The chart also includes a plot (green) of the moving 60-month CO2 level changes over the same sixty year period<\/strong>, plus a linear trend for both CO2 changes and ocean temperature changes.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The trend of the 60-month CO2 changes<\/strong> significantly exceeds the slight positive trend of ocean<\/strong> temperature changes by a factor of 117x.<\/strong> This huge differential undercuts the belief that global warming is primarily the result of GHGs. Which is confirmed by<\/strong> the paltry R^2 of +0.06 \u2013 an almost non-existent relationship between 5-year atmospheric CO2 changes and 5-year changes in ocean temperature.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Not only are the large increases in CO2 levels not causing a concerning uptick<\/strong> of temperature change magnitude, it also<\/strong> has not<\/strong> lead to any type of acceleration,<\/strong> per the linear trend since 1963.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Specifically, with a trend of a tiny +0.0001\u00b0C,<\/strong> that would project out 20 years<\/strong> to be an increase of 5-year temperature changes to an insignificant amount of +0.024\u00b0C<\/strong> \u2013 definitely not an existential threat of \u2018runaway warming\u2019 or a CAGW \u2018climate crisis\u2019<\/strong> as portrayed by bureaucrats, politicians and Hollywood celebrities.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

So, if 5 years of increasing amounts of CO2 in the atmosphere barely influence 5-year changes in temperature over a 60-year span, either in magnitude or acceleration rate, then it is highly unlikely that this trace gas would cause a catastrophic climate disaster or an extinction event.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thus, it is fair to state that for all those scientists pushing a narrative of an imminent climate change catastrophe from CO2 without the requisite empirical evidence<\/strong>, this has become the real climate science crisis facing society.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

For a hypothesis to reach\u00a0the status of being a\u00a0legit theory, it\u00a0requires withstanding\u00a0the onslaught of\u00a0observed empirical evidence.\u00a0The\u00a0CAGW hypothesis is no such animal.<\/p>\n

Known by its more contemporary aliases, such as\u201d climate crisis,\u201d \u201cclimate emergency,\u201d \u201cclimate collapse,\u201d or \u201cexistential threat,\u201d the\u00a0CAGW has zero empirical evidence to support it.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691829997,691821747,691835404,691820424,691823916],"class_list":["post-385893","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-carbon-dioxide-co","tag-oceans","tag-scientific-evidence","tag-temperatures","tag-tipping-point","has-post-thumbnail","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1Co5","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":257887,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=257887","url_meta":{"origin":385893,"position":0},"title":"Objection! Warming Alarm is Hearsay, Lacking\u00a0Evidence.","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"17\/05\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"For a hypothesis to reach the status of being a\u00a0legit theory,\u00a0it\u00a0requires\u00a0withstanding the onslaught of\u00a0observed empirical evidence. The CAGW hypothesis is no such animal.","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0-Evidence.jpeg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0-Evidence.jpeg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0-Evidence.jpeg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0-Evidence.jpeg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0-Evidence.jpeg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":202922,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=202922","url_meta":{"origin":385893,"position":1},"title":"How We Got to Climate Crisis Hysteria","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"04\/06\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Background from previous post Rise and Fall of CAGW On January 8, 2018 Ross Pomeroy published\u00a0 at RealClearScience an interesting article\u00a0The Six Stages of a Failed Psychological Theory The Pomeroy essay focuses on theories in the field of psychology and describes stages through which they rise, become accepted, challenged and\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/0psych-theory-lc1.png?fit=1164%2C632&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/0psych-theory-lc1.png?fit=1164%2C632&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/0psych-theory-lc1.png?fit=1164%2C632&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/0psych-theory-lc1.png?fit=1164%2C632&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/0psych-theory-lc1.png?fit=1164%2C632&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":424976,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=424976","url_meta":{"origin":385893,"position":2},"title":"More On the Federal Judicial Center and the Attribution Scam","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"06\/02\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"As discussed in the previous post, the Federal Judicial Center\u2019s recently- updated Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence contains a new chapter on Climate Science. That chapter focuses on the promoting the hocus pocus of \u201cattribution\u201d studies that seek to blame every latest hurricane or flood or drought on human emissions\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"carbon dioxide (CO\u2082)\"","block_context":{"text":"carbon dioxide (CO\u2082)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=carbon-dioxide-co%e2%82%82"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/0-Federal-Judicial-Center-And-The-Attribution-Scam-1.jpg?fit=784%2C1168&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/0-Federal-Judicial-Center-And-The-Attribution-Scam-1.jpg?fit=784%2C1168&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/0-Federal-Judicial-Center-And-The-Attribution-Scam-1.jpg?fit=784%2C1168&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/0-Federal-Judicial-Center-And-The-Attribution-Scam-1.jpg?fit=784%2C1168&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":323585,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=323585","url_meta":{"origin":385893,"position":3},"title":"New Scientific Evidence That CO2 Emissions Can\u2019t Warm Atmosphere Because it is \u201cSaturated\u201d Published in Peer-Reviewed Journal","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"26\/04\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Further scientific evidence has emerged to suggest that the Earth\u2019s atmosphere is \u2018saturated\u2019 with carbon dioxide, meaning that at higher levels the \u2018greenhouse\u2019 gas will not cause temperatures to rise. A group of Polish scientists led by Dr. Jan Kubicki have published three papers recently, and according to the science\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Carbon dioxide\"","block_context":{"text":"Carbon dioxide","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=carbon-dioxide"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/075062-space-Earth-Sun-stars.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/075062-space-Earth-Sun-stars.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/075062-space-Earth-Sun-stars.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/075062-space-Earth-Sun-stars.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/075062-space-Earth-Sun-stars.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":429638,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=429638","url_meta":{"origin":385893,"position":4},"title":"Muddling the Judiciary\u2019s Understanding of Science","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/03\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"While an educational manual for federal judges was improved when a biased representation of climate change was removed, a remaining chapter on the fundamentals of science would poison the judiciary with quackery.","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate Alarmists\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate Alarmists","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-alarmists"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/02a8bce31-97cb-452a-b3d2-3f3a84bd77ce_1280x853.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/02a8bce31-97cb-452a-b3d2-3f3a84bd77ce_1280x853.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/02a8bce31-97cb-452a-b3d2-3f3a84bd77ce_1280x853.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/02a8bce31-97cb-452a-b3d2-3f3a84bd77ce_1280x853.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/02a8bce31-97cb-452a-b3d2-3f3a84bd77ce_1280x853.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":232284,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=232284","url_meta":{"origin":385893,"position":5},"title":"Meet Your President \u2013 Ron Davison, P. Eng.","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"03\/12\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Is climate change a big issue in your country and how do you notice this?","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/00IMG_8947-1200x1600-ron-i-hit-the-green-768x1024-1.webp?fit=768%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/00IMG_8947-1200x1600-ron-i-hit-the-green-768x1024-1.webp?fit=768%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/00IMG_8947-1200x1600-ron-i-hit-the-green-768x1024-1.webp?fit=768%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/00IMG_8947-1200x1600-ron-i-hit-the-green-768x1024-1.webp?fit=768%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/385893","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=385893"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/385893\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":385910,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/385893\/revisions\/385910"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=385893"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=385893"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=385893"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}