{"id":385409,"date":"2025-06-27T17:51:23","date_gmt":"2025-06-27T15:51:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=385409"},"modified":"2025-06-27T17:51:24","modified_gmt":"2025-06-27T15:51:24","slug":"climate-propaganda-breakthrough-binary-data-creates-an-illusion-of-sudden-shifts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=385409","title":{"rendered":"Climate Propaganda Breakthrough? \u201c\u2026 binary data creates an illusion of sudden shifts \u2026\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Essay by\u00a0<\/strong>Eric Worrall<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inducing a motivational sense of acute loss in the general public might just be a matter of messaging.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Why climate change fades into the background \u2013 and how to change that<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The public is tuning out the seemingly slow warming of the world, but it doesn\u2019t have to be that way, argue Grace Liu<\/strong> and Rachit Dubey<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Rachit Dubey<\/a> and Grace Liu<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

For a long time, many climate scientists and advocates held onto an optimistic belief: when the impacts of global warming became undeniable, people and governments would finally act decisively. Perhaps a devastating hurricane, heatwave or flood \u2013 or even a cascade of disasters \u2013 would make the severity of the problem impossible to ignore, spurring large-scale action. Yet, even as disasters mount, climate change remains low on voters\u2019 priority lists and policy responses are tepid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That led us to ask: could binary climate data \u2013 yes-or-no indicators such as \u201clake froze\u201d vs \u201cno freeze\u201d \u2013 make people sit up and take notice better than graphs showing gradual temperature rise?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We tested this idea in a series<\/a> of experiments. Participants were shown one of two graphs: one displayed a fictional town\u2019s rising winter temperatures; the other showed whether its lake froze each year. Importantly, both graphs captured the same underlying climate trend. But people\u2019s responses were very different.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why? We found<\/a> that binary data creates an illusion of sudden shifts. When people saw a series of winters when the lake froze, followed by years when it didn\u2019t, they perceived a clear \u201cbefore\u201d and \u201cafter\u201d, even though the change was gradual.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Grace Liu is at Carnegie Mellon University in Pennsylvania and Rachit Dubey is at UCLA<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

The abstract of the study.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Article
Published: 17 April 2025<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Binary climate data visuals amplify perceived impact of climate change<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Grace Liu<\/a>, Jake C. Snell<\/a>, Thomas L. Griffiths<\/a> & Rachit Dubey<\/a> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nature Human Behaviour<\/em><\/a> (2025)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Abstract<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

For much of the global population, climate change appears as a slow, gradual shift in daily weather. This leads many to perceive its impacts as minor and results in apathy (the \u2018boiling frog\u2019 effect). How can we convey the urgency of the crisis when its impacts appear so subtle? Here, through a series of large-scale cognitive experiments (N<\/em>\u2009=\u2009799), we find that presenting people with binary climate data (for example, lake freeze history) significantly increases the perceived impact of climate change (Cohen\u2019s\u00a0d<\/em>\u2009=\u20090.40, 95% confidence interval 0.26\u20130.54) compared with continuous data (for example, mean temperature). Computational modelling and follow-up experiments (N<\/em>\u2009=\u2009398) suggest that\u00a0binary data enhance perceived impact by creating an \u2018illusion\u2019 of sudden shifts.<\/strong>\u00a0Crucially, our approach does not involve selective data presentation but rather compares different datasets that reflect equivalent trends in climate change over time.\u00a0These findings<\/strong>, robustly replicated across multiple experiments,\u00a0provide a cognitive basis for the \u2018boiling frog\u2019 effect and offer a psychologically grounded approach for policymakers and educators to improve climate change communication while maintaining scientific accuracy.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Read more (paywalled):\u00a0https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41562-025-02183-9<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

The scientists behind this research seem to be struggling with their own audience issues. They were pushing the same argument back in April.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Claim: Climate Apathy is Outpacing the Climate Crisis<\/a><\/blockquote>