{"id":382578,"date":"2025-06-10T17:59:14","date_gmt":"2025-06-10T15:59:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=382578"},"modified":"2025-06-10T17:59:15","modified_gmt":"2025-06-10T15:59:15","slug":"the-conversations-greenland-glacier-retreat-hype-isnt-supported-by-history-or-data","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=382578","title":{"rendered":"The Conversation\u2019s Greenland Glacier Retreat Hype Isn\u2019t Supported by History or Data"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From ClimateRealism<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Anthony Watts<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

A June 3, 2025, article in The Conversation, titled \u201cGreenland\u2019s melting ice caps reveal the true extent of climate change<\/a>,\u201d claims that retreating glaciers and melting ice are transforming Greenland\u2019s coastline, providing proof of the severity of man-made climate change. The article states, \u201c[t]his rapid reduction not only has consequences for Greenland\u2019s 56,000 inhabitants, but also on a global scale, as it affects rising sea levels and the balance of the planet\u2019s climate systems.\u201d This claim is highly misleading. A closer look at the actual data reveals that while Greenland\u2019s ice does melt seasonally, the net loss is vastly overstated in terms of both context and consequence. The evidence shows that the total ice volume in Greenland is so immense that these melt events barely register on the global scale.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Greenland\u2019s ice sheet holds about 2.9 million cubic kilometers of ice. Each year, it experiences a melt season during the summer, followed by an accumulation season during the long, dark winter. This is not new. It has been happening for centuries. According to Climate at a Glance<\/a>, even the much-hyped 2019 melt season, one of the highest in recent memory, amounted to just 0.1% of Greenland\u2019s total ice mass as seen in the figure below. That amount is hardly \u201crevealing the true extent of climate change.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
A comparison of presentations of satellite data capturing Greenland\u2019s ice mass loss. The image on the right shows changes in Greenland\u2019s ice mass relative to its total ice mass. Sources: The data plotted in these graphs are from the Ice Sheet Mass Balance Inter-Comparison Exercise, a joint exercise by NASA and the European Space Agency.\u00a0Graphs originally by Willis Eschenbach. Adapted and annotated by Anthony Watts.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Conversation article leans heavily on the premise that ice loss has \u201coutpaced previous estimates by 20%\u201d\u2014but this is little more than statistical smoke. When the baseline estimates are revised upward due to better satellite technology or changes in modeling assumptions, we must ask: is the ice truly disappearing faster, or are we simply observing it with a more exaggerated lens?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Next, we\u2019re told that retreating glaciers are redrawing the coastline and that a 2,500 km increase in Arctic coastline over 20 years is somehow an emergency. Historically glacier retreat and expansion are a natural part of the glacial lifecycle. Glaciers advance and retreat depending on precipitation and temperature\u2014more snowfall means advance, less snowfall or greater melt means retreat. In Greenland, the snow accumulation zone remains robust. According to a peer-reviewed study in Nature Geoscience<\/em><\/a>, snowfall over interior Greenland has actually increased in recent decades. This underscores a fundamental point: it\u2019s precipitation, not temperature alone, that controls the size of glaciers. Snowfall feeds glaciers, and unless you\u2019re tracking that, your melt panic doesn\u2019t paint the complete picture.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The article also dances around the issue of sea level rise but stops short of quantifying it\u2014likely because the numbers would undermine the alarmism. If Greenland lost ice at the 2019 rate every year (which it doesn\u2019t), sea level would rise just 1.5 inches per decade. This amount is not outside the range of historic natural variability and would certainly not prove catastrophic. Sea level has been rising since the end of the last ice age and there\u2019s no evidence to suggest we\u2019re seeing anything outside of that long-term trend. In fact, research shows that Greenland has been warmer in the past and recent research shows<\/a> that Greenland has been ice free in the past, even when atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations were much lower than at present.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The authors also mention melting permafrost and coastal erosion as evidence of climate danger. Again, this cherry-picks the worst-case scenarios without noting that permafrost thawing is hyper-local and varies widely with terrain, vegetation cover, and hydrology. Even if permafrost thaws in some coastal locations, it has little to do with the Greenland ice sheet and more to do with local conditions\u2014and yes, cyclical climate patterns that predate SUVs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The authors also cherry-pick glacier data focusing on retreating glaciers, while ignoring that fact that many of Greenland\u2019s glaciers are stable or even advancing. According to NASA\u2019s GRACE satellite data and other datasets summarized at Climate Realism<\/a>, short-term variations in glacier movement are influenced by bedrock geometry, oceanic oscillations, and weather\u2014not just temperature. Claims that glacier retreat is somehow \u201cproof\u201d of anthropogenic climate change are unsupported by a full review of the data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Let\u2019s also address the fallacy of linear extrapolation present throughout the article. The authors assume that a trend observed over 20 years can be extended indefinitely into the future. This violates basic principles of climate variability. Greenland has experienced warmer periods in the past, such as the Medieval Warm Period, when Norse settlers farmed in what is now frozen tundra<\/a>. The idea that today\u2019s trends are unprecedented is simply false. Ice loss and glacier retreat have happened before\u2014and they have reversed before.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finally, we come to climate modeling. The authors put faith in climate models to \u201cproject future scenarios,\u201d but research shows that climate models have consistently overestimated warming and underestimated natural variability. As documented at Watts Up With That<\/a>, these models are not validated forecasting tools but speculative simulations filled with assumptions. The supposed \u201cintegration\u201d of remote sensing with models doesn\u2019t correct for bias\u2014it compounds it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In conclusion, the narrative spun by The Conversation<\/em> is a classic case of selective science wrapped in climate alarmism. Greenland\u2019s ice sheet is vast, resilient, and far from being in crisis. Summer melt is a normal seasonal event. Glaciers retreat and advance due to a complex mix of factors, primarily snowfall\u2014not just warming. And the supposed sea level implications are trivial when compared to the dire tone of the article.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shame on The Conversation<\/em> for parroting climate panic without rigorous scrutiny. If the story\u2019s writers had bothered to examine the full scope of glaciological science\u2014or even take a glance at precipitation trends and long-term natural variability\u2014they\u2019d see that the ice caps aren\u2019t a smoking gun for a human-caused climate catastrophe. Greenland\u2019s glaciers are just doing what they\u2019ve done throughout history, waxing and waning along with changing climatic, oceanic, and regional conditions, not threatening to inundate the world.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A June 3, 2025, article in The Conversation, titled \u201cGreenland\u2019s melting ice caps reveal the true extent of climate change,\u201d claims that retreating glaciers and melting ice are transforming Greenland\u2019s coastline, providing proof of the severity of man-made climate change. The article states, \u201c[t]his rapid reduction not only has consequences for Greenland\u2019s 56,000 inhabitants, but also on a global scale, as it affects rising sea levels and the balance of the planet\u2019s climate systems.\u201d This claim is highly misleading. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":382584,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818153,691818252,691835739,691835741,691835738,691822640,691821854,691835740],"class_list":{"0":"post-382578","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-climate-models","9":"tag-greenland","10":"tag-melting-ice","11":"tag-nasas-grace","12":"tag-retreating-glaciers","13":"tag-satellite-data","14":"tag-the-conversation","15":"tag-total-ice-mass","17":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/00Screenshot-2025-06-10-175023.png?fit=1233%2C944&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1BwC","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":226777,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=226777","url_meta":{"origin":382578,"position":0},"title":"No New York Times, Melting Ice in Greenland Isn\u2019t a Serious Threat","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"01\/11\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"While the NYT might give a good story here of observations via airplane flyovers and quotes from locals that say they\u2019ve seen ice disappear, it is all anecdotal, and not science.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/image-19.png?fit=1200%2C694&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/image-19.png?fit=1200%2C694&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/image-19.png?fit=1200%2C694&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/image-19.png?fit=1200%2C694&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/image-19.png?fit=1200%2C694&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":208895,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=208895","url_meta":{"origin":382578,"position":1},"title":"Claim: Coastal Glacier Retreat Linked to Climate Change","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"17\/07\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Peer-Reviewed Publication UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS AT AUSTIN IMAGE:\u00a0EQIP SERMIA, LIKE MANY COASTAL GLACIERS IN GREENLAND, HAS RETREATED IN THE LAST TWO DECADES. NEW RESEARCH FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS INSTITUTE FOR GEOPHYSICS AND GEORGIA TECH PROVIDES A WAY TO DETERMINE HOW MUCH CLIMATE CHANGE IS INFLUENCING LARGE-SCALE GLACIAL MELTING.\u00a0view\u00a0more\u00a0\u00a0CREDIT: JOHN\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/image-131.png?fit=1024%2C512&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/image-131.png?fit=1024%2C512&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/image-131.png?fit=1024%2C512&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/image-131.png?fit=1024%2C512&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":287937,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=287937","url_meta":{"origin":382578,"position":2},"title":"Greenland Ice Varies, Don\u2019t Panic 2023\u00a0Update","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"14\/11\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The Greenland ice sheet is more than 1.2 miles thick in most regions. 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