{"id":382520,"date":"2025-06-10T13:51:24","date_gmt":"2025-06-10T11:51:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=382520"},"modified":"2025-06-10T13:51:26","modified_gmt":"2025-06-10T11:51:26","slug":"groan-expletive-deleted","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=382520","title":{"rendered":"GROAN! [expletive deleted]"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Anthony Watts<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is no such thing as a climate disaster!<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Tufts University \u201cSchool of Nutrition Science\u201d and the \u201cweather is not climate\u201d department, comes this inanity dressed up as peer reviewed science.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A forward-looking approach to climate disaster preparation<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

With flooding and heatwaves on the rise, certain vulnerable communities must learn to expect the unexpected, say researchers.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vulnerable communities in the Southeastern United States must look to the future, not the past, to prepare for climate disasters, according to researchers at the Feinstein International Center<\/a>, located at the Gerald J. and Dorothy R. Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy<\/a> at Tufts University.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a recent paper published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society<\/em><\/a>, the researchers document substantially higher risk of extreme temperatures and flooding in the Southeast U.S. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The researchers\u2019 work, which was supported by a NASA cooperative grant, also includes a proposed framework to help these communities better prepare for disasters they have not yet experienced but are likely to encounter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cDisaster planning based on historical events is like driving forward while only looking in the rearview mirror,\u201d says principal investigator Erin Coughlan de Perez<\/a>, research director at Feinstein and Friedman School associate professor. \u201cMany communities are planning for what they have seen in the past, only slightly worse. They need to be preparing for things they haven\u2019t seen at all.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the entire region is at risk for extreme weather events, some communities also have a \u201chigh potential for surprise,\u201d say the researchers, who include The Fletcher School graduate students Bethany Tietjen, F20, and Jenna Clark, A21, as well as Amy Jaffe, a non-resident senior fellow at the Climate Policy Lab.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThese are communities where the overall risk has increased over time, but the community hasn\u2019t experienced one of these severe weather events in recent memory,\u201d says Coughlan de Perez. This makes them potentially poorly prepared for future disasters, or \u201csitting ducks,\u201d according to the researchers\u2019 framework.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analyzing five counties, researchers found them all to be \u201csitting ducks\u201d when it comes to an extreme heat event. According to the study, Montgomery County, AL, Yazoo County, MS, Madison Country, TN, Warren County, KY, and Terrebonne Parish, LA, have gotten lucky in recent years and not had significant heatwaves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWhat our models showed is that temperatures have been rising gradually over the years, with one year maybe being really hot, but because the risk has been changing slowly, people living in these communities may not have noticed it,\u201d Coughlan de Perez says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When it comes to flooding, researchers concluded that Yazoo County is also a \u201csitting duck.\u201d The other four communities fall into what the researchers call the \u201cliving memory\u201d category, meaning there is a recent flooding event that people can remember, which can encourage people to stay prepared for future events. \u201cFlooding events have also increased in frequency during the rainiest months of the year, but not every community has experienced catastrophic flooding,\u201d Coughlan de Perez says. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In what the researchers categorize as \u201cfading memory\u201d communities, a particular weather event has become less frequent, and people barely remember it. \u201cBoston used to have frequent extreme cold snaps in the winter, for example, but that happens less often now,\u201d Coughlan de Perez says. Similarly, in \u201crecent rarity\u201d communities, people might remember a particular weather event\u2014but the likelihood of it happening again is also relatively low.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In their analysis, the authors used large weather models of historical weather events between 1981-2021 to examine the five Southeastern U.S. counties, which were a combination of urban and rural communities. \u201cIt\u2019s a roll of the die whether they have experienced extreme weather events yet or not. Extreme heat and flooding are in their futures,\u201d Coughlan de Perez says. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Preparation may include identifying those at greatest risk; setting up accessible cooling centers for those who are homeless or don\u2019t have air conditioning; educating the public about evacuation plans and potential shelters for floods; putting state or local heat protections in place for outdoor workers; establishing communication systems to alert residents to the dangers of high daytime and overnight temperatures or impending floods; and other measures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Tufts team is working with the American Red Cross in multiple locations to improve disaster planning, but Coughlan de Perez notes that state and local policies addressing extreme heat and flooding are often limited and need to be developed further.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the meantime, Coughlan de Perez says, \u201cOur ultimate goal is to provide a framework to help all communities prepare for weather events they may not have experienced before but have a high likelihood of facing in the future.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This work was supported by a NASA cooperative grant titled \u201cToday\u2019s Risk of Extreme Events\u201d (Agreement 80NSSC22K1706). Complete information on authors, methodology and conflicts of interest is available in the published paper. The content is the sole responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the funder.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

Journal Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

10.1175\/BAMS-D-23-0297.1 <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

From Tufts University \u201cSchool of Nutrition Science\u201d and the \u201cweather is not climate\u201d department, comes this inanity dressed up as peer reviewed science.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":382523,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691821382,691820674,691818544,691831875],"class_list":{"0":"post-382520","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-climate-disaster","9":"tag-extreme-heat","10":"tag-flooding","11":"tag-weather-models","13":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/428cb5e678da63e8f316391bc0d6116d-1.jpg?fit=2520%2C1460&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1BvG","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":371240,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=371240","url_meta":{"origin":382520,"position":0},"title":"How to stop being surprised by extreme weather? 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