{"id":381946,"date":"2025-06-07T14:00:01","date_gmt":"2025-06-07T12:00:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=381946"},"modified":"2025-06-07T14:00:02","modified_gmt":"2025-06-07T12:00:02","slug":"new-york-electric-power-trends","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=381946","title":{"rendered":"New York Electric Power Trends"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Roger Caiazza<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Recently the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) released Power Trends 2025<\/a>.  This is the NYISO\u2019s annual description of factors influencing New York State\u2019s power grid and wholesale electricity markets.  It suggests that there are looming issues with New York\u2019s aspirational net-zero transition plans that must be similar to transition plans at all other jurisdictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Overview<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2019 Climate Leadership & Community Protection Act<\/a> (Climate Act) legislation established a \u201cNet Zero\u201d target (85% reduction in GHG emissions and 15% offset of emissions) by 2050.  Since then, the State has been trying to implement the Scoping Plan recommendations through regulations, proceedings, and legislation.  One law is Public Service Law Section 66-P Establishment of a renewable energy program<\/a> that requires the Public Service Commission to establish a program to meet the interim targets for 70% of the energy delivered in 2030 \u201cshall be generated by renewable energy systems\u201d and that \u201cby the year two thousand forty the statewide electrical demand system will be zero emissions\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Power Trends Resources<\/a> landing page provides documentation and links to the Power Trends 2025<\/a> report itself, and a Power Trends Fact Sheet<\/a>.  A press release<\/a> offers a third summary of the report.  This post describes the takeaways promoted by NYISO in those documents.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reliability Margins<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Fact Sheet, Power Trends Report, and Press Release emphasize a concern about declining reliability margins.  The Press Release explains:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Generator deactivations are outpacing new supply additions. Electrification programs and new large-load customers associated with economic development initiatives are pushing projected demand higher. Together, these forces are also narrowing reliability margins across New York and increasing the risk of future reliability needs.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Recent Power Trend reports have included the declining reliability margins issue.  The following figure shows last year\u2019s status compared to this year.  The decline in margin is mostly because fossil units are retiring faster than zero emissions replacements are coming on-line. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Source:\u00a0Power Trends 2025<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Fossil Plants<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

All three NYISO documents note that the average age of the fossil fleet is increasing.  They also point out the advantages of modernizing old fossil facilities.  The Press Release explains: \u201cRepowering aging power plants can lower emissions, meet rising consumer demand, and provide reliability benefits to the grid that are needed to integrate additional clean energy resources.\u201d  The declining margin and the age of the fossil plants reflects a lack of foresight by New York agencies that have been pressuring existing power plants to reduce emissions or shut down. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Power Trends states that: \u201cRepowering aging power plants can lower emissions, meet rising consumer demand, and provide reliability benefits to the grid that are needed to integrate additional clean energy resources.\u201d  The New York Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC) has rejected several repowering applications to replace existing old generators with modern new facilities because of the Climate Act.  Unfortunately, there is no direct link between the proposed facilities and a particular reliability issue, so DEC rejected the applications.  This is an example of poor New York energy planning because the permit decisions were considered in isolation not in the context of the needs of the electric system.  While I applaud the fact that this is a recommendation of Power Trends, it is also fair to ask why the NYISO did not intervene in the repowering applications. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

New Load Growth<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future reliability margins will also be affected by new load growth.\u00a0 The Fact Sheet and Report note that \u201cNew high-tech, AI and data center projects are having an impact on future electric demand and load growth\u201d.\u00a0 Figure 1 from the Report notes that 2,567 MW of new load capacity is needed by 2035 and the document notes that other projects could add around 1,900 MW of capacity after that.\u00a0 I am disappointed that the NYISO Report did not mention that these new load centers require constant energy and\u00a0clean power<\/a>\u00a0that is free from electrical noise, surges, voltage spikes, and drops.\u00a0 Those needs exacerbate the challenge of the Public Service Law Section 66-P \u201cEstablishment of a renewable energy program\u201d requirements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Source:\u00a0Power Trends 2025<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Winter Shift<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The three NYISO documents all note that the peak loads are projected to shift to the winter from the summer.  The Press Release notes that:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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New York is projected to become a winter-peaking electric system by the 2040s, driven primarily by electrification of space heating and transportation. On the coldest days, the availability of natural gas for power generation can be limited, and interruptions to natural gas supply will introduce further challenges for reliable electric grid operations.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

There is another unmentioned complication with winter peaking.  When the Public Service Law Section 66-P \u201cEstablishment of a renewable energy program\u201d electric system that relies on wind and solar generating resources is in place, the winter solar availability is much lower than in the summer.  This is another challenge that I think the Power Trends report should have acknowledged.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Competitive Market<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Fact Sheet, Power Trends Report, and Press Release all extoll the power of competitive markets to support the transition while maintaining reliability and minimizing consumer costs.  The NYISO is a product of the de-regulated competitive market. The report explains that: \u201cWe are committed to administering and overseeing the competitive electricity markets as the most cost-effective way to attract and retain new resources to meet our reliability needs as we transition to a decarbonized grid.\u201d  I do not share their optimistic outlook for the market\u2019s ability to attract and retain new resources.  At this time, it is not clear what kind of resources and how much of those resources are needed, so the presumption that they can design a market to attract those resources is questionable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Interconnection Process<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The three NYISO documents all note that there are interconnection issues.  The Press Release states: \u201cNew supply, load, and transmission projects are seeking to interconnect to the grid at record levels. NYISO\u2019s interconnection processes continue to evolve to balance developer flexibility with the need to manage the process to more stringent timeframes.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is an issue that is directly within the purview of NYISO, and it is a problem.  Power Trends describes proposed modifications to the process but does not acknowledge that there are fundamental issues.  Many of the new projects are inverter-based resources<\/a> and integrating this new category of resources is problematic for grid stability and reliability.  Regulatory frameworks are under development to address this problem, and this has contributed to the interconnection delays.  I do not understand why NYISO did not mention that problem.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Discussion<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The most recent edition of Power Trends warns of significant issues facing the New York electric system.  While I think that NYISO has become more forthcoming in this edition than previous reports about the severity and consequences of the problems, I am still disappointed with the report for several reasons.  In the first place, it is still necessary to read between the lines in all their reports to understand that they know there are enormous challenges associated with the transition to a renewable energy electric system.  I think that is a disservice to the residents of New York.  A truly independent agency should explicitly describe the reliability and affordability difficulties facing the electric system without holding back. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

I am also disappointed that the Power Trends document did not describe specific Climate Act-related issues that I mentioned in the description above.  In my opinion the biggest reliability challenge for any electric system dependent upon weather reliant resources is the necessity of a new category of electric system support technology that can be reliably dispatched to provide both energy and capacity over long durations with no emissions.  NYISO calls this resource the Dispatchable Emissions-Free Resource (DEFR) and notes that they are \u201ccrucial for meeting energy demands when intermittent renewable sources like solar and wind are unavailable.\u201d  However, DEFR was only mentioned in passing.  The consequences of the challenges that we don\u2019t know what DEFR will work and we don\u2019t know how much DEFR is needed were not discussed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finally, I wish that NYISO would be more assertive in New York energy policy matters.   It is understandable given the bully-tactics of previous Administrations<\/a> but New York State needs to hear from the experts.  For example, Power Trends notes that we need to do repowering of existing fossil power plants, but NYISO did not intercede directly to advocate for repowering applications that were rejected. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Conclusion<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Power Trends 2025<\/a>  report provides an excellent overview of New York State\u2019s power grid and wholesale electricity markets.  There are suggestions that the State\u2019s mandate to go to zero emissions is in trouble,  Unfortunately, NYISO does not consolidate all the warning signs about Climate Act implementation, nor does it call out state policies that are exacerbating problems.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ultimately the problem is that New York has no comprehensive energy plan.  The Climate Act <\/a>Scoping Plan<\/a> is just a list of technologies that describe an electric system that is zero-emissions.  However, there is no feasibility study that shows how it will work nor has the Hochul Administration reconciled the differences between the Scoping Plan and NYISO resource outlooks.  As it stands now, the Administration plan is to build as many wind and solar facilities as possible and hope someone works out how they are supposed to be integrated into the electric system.  When that does not work, I predict the NYISO will be blamed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Roger Caiazza blogs on New York energy and environmental issues at Pragmatic Environmentalist of New York<\/a>.  The opinions expressed in this post do not reflect the position of any of his previous employers or any other organization he has been associated with.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Recently the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) released\u00a0Power Trends 2025.\u00a0 This is the NYISO\u2019s annual description of factors influencing New York State\u2019s power grid and wholesale electricity markets.\u00a0 It suggests that there are looming issues with New York\u2019s aspirational net-zero transition plans that must be similar to transition plans at all other jurisdictions.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":381952,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691835666,691818154,691829254,691818836,691835665,691818181],"class_list":{"0":"post-381946","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-department-of-environmental-conservation-dec","9":"tag-net-zero","10":"tag-new-york-independent-system-operator-nyiso","11":"tag-new-york-state","12":"tag-power-trends-2025","13":"tag-renewable-energy","15":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/OIG-20.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1Bmq","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":245757,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=245757","url_meta":{"origin":381946,"position":0},"title":"New York Independent System Operator Information for Policy Makers","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"26\/02\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The implementation plan for New York\u2019s\u00a0Climate Act \u201cNet Zero\u201d target (85% reduction and 15% offset of emissions) by 2050 is underway.\u00a0","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/image-850.png?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/image-850.png?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/image-850.png?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/image-850.png?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/image-850.png?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":333237,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=333237","url_meta":{"origin":381946,"position":1},"title":"Get Out the Popcorn \u2013 NYS Heat Wave Might Affect the Grid","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"18\/06\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) recently issued its Power Trends which is billed as their \u201cannual analysis of factors influencing New York State\u2019s power grid and wholesale electricity Markets\u201d. This post highlights the expectation that electricity supplies will \u201cbe adequate to meet expected summer demand under baseline conditions,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"heatwave\"","block_context":{"text":"heatwave","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=heatwave"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/00-NYS-Heat-Wave-Might-Affect-the-Grid-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C798&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/00-NYS-Heat-Wave-Might-Affect-the-Grid-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C798&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/00-NYS-Heat-Wave-Might-Affect-the-Grid-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C798&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/00-NYS-Heat-Wave-Might-Affect-the-Grid-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C798&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/00-NYS-Heat-Wave-Might-Affect-the-Grid-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C798&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":408586,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=408586","url_meta":{"origin":381946,"position":2},"title":"NYISO Weighs in on The New York State Draft Energy Plan","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"16\/10\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"NYISO is the New York Independent System Operator \u2014 the not-for-profit entity created to manage New York State\u2019s electrical grid. 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Neighboring states have multi-state ISOs (i.e., PJM and ISO-NE) to do\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"\u201cdispatchable emissions-free resources\u201d (DEFRs)\"","block_context":{"text":"\u201cdispatchable emissions-free resources\u201d (DEFRs)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=dispatchable-emissions-free-resources-defrs"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/AQMetzDdI3XmBgpHxmS-EAYNW5lIHVTcZwZHeG7x44SA6BomvA1_41CStkXorXV6iaTy6f9KfafT4jjd-neHsijX6S5XF4_3u1EPWy938E698mxd1iO0y84W6m5JYQz-dNj8U_nvAxiXv6F0_yQcm5RFgHTsEg.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/AQMetzDdI3XmBgpHxmS-EAYNW5lIHVTcZwZHeG7x44SA6BomvA1_41CStkXorXV6iaTy6f9KfafT4jjd-neHsijX6S5XF4_3u1EPWy938E698mxd1iO0y84W6m5JYQz-dNj8U_nvAxiXv6F0_yQcm5RFgHTsEg.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/AQMetzDdI3XmBgpHxmS-EAYNW5lIHVTcZwZHeG7x44SA6BomvA1_41CStkXorXV6iaTy6f9KfafT4jjd-neHsijX6S5XF4_3u1EPWy938E698mxd1iO0y84W6m5JYQz-dNj8U_nvAxiXv6F0_yQcm5RFgHTsEg.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/AQMetzDdI3XmBgpHxmS-EAYNW5lIHVTcZwZHeG7x44SA6BomvA1_41CStkXorXV6iaTy6f9KfafT4jjd-neHsijX6S5XF4_3u1EPWy938E698mxd1iO0y84W6m5JYQz-dNj8U_nvAxiXv6F0_yQcm5RFgHTsEg.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/AQMetzDdI3XmBgpHxmS-EAYNW5lIHVTcZwZHeG7x44SA6BomvA1_41CStkXorXV6iaTy6f9KfafT4jjd-neHsijX6S5XF4_3u1EPWy938E698mxd1iO0y84W6m5JYQz-dNj8U_nvAxiXv6F0_yQcm5RFgHTsEg.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":334423,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=334423","url_meta":{"origin":381946,"position":3},"title":"New York State June 2024 Heat Wave Summary","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"24\/06\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Before the heat wave started this week my article, Get Out the Popcorn \u2013 NYS Heat Wave Might Affect the Grid, about the potential impact on the New York State grid was published. 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The analysis included astoundingly biased claims of the effects of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. 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