{"id":380515,"date":"2025-05-28T17:46:03","date_gmt":"2025-05-28T15:46:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=380515"},"modified":"2025-05-28T18:40:27","modified_gmt":"2025-05-28T16:40:27","slug":"weaponizing-uncertainty-climate-scientists-admit-they-dont-know-then-demand-you-obey-anyway","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=380515","title":{"rendered":"Weaponizing Uncertainty: Climate Scientists Admit They Don\u2019t Know\u2014Then Demand You Obey Anyway"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Charles Rotter<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"
https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/d41586-025-01552-8<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

It would be nearly impossible to fabricate a better fictional demonstration of motivated reasoning than the May 2025 Nature<\/em> commentary titled \u201cHurricane risk in a changing climate \u2014 the role of uncertainty\u201d<\/a><\/strong> by Adam Sobel and Kerry Emanuel. In fact, if one needed a primary source to study how scientific ambiguity can be massaged into policy certainty, this article would serve beautifully.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The authors begin by acknowledging the obvious:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cthere\u2019s also a lot that we don\u2019t know<\/em>\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

about how climate change affects hurricanes. This initial concession gives the impression of intellectual humility. Yet what follows is a masterclass in rhetorical misdirection\u2014a piece that deserves to be taught in schools, not for its science, but for its persuasive structure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rather than treating uncertainty as a reason for caution, Sobel and Emanuel treat it as a trigger for urgency. They write,<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cIn general, uncertainty increases risk<\/em>\u201d.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

This sounds profound until you realize it\u2019s a tautology masquerading as logic. More uncertainty does not inherently increase actual<\/em> risk\u2014it increases the range of possible outcomes<\/em>. But in the world of policy-driven science, this range is always framed around the worst case.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is how one turns \u201cknown unknowns\u201d into leverage for sweeping intervention.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The authors proceed to break down various hurricane risk factors<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cin roughly decreasing order of confidence<\/em>,\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

a rhetorical trick designed to create a gradient of believability. It starts strong\u2014with precipitation\u2014then deteriorates into hedging and handwaving, without ever breaking the narrative thread.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On rainfall<\/strong>, they write:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cScientists are confident that rainfall associated with hurricanes will increase in a warmer climate<\/em>\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

because<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cmore water vapour can be held in a warmer atmosphere<\/em>\u201d.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

This is true in theory. But the authors make no effort to quantify it, nor do they explain how this theoretical increase translates into measurable damages\u2014particularly when modern infrastructure, forecasting, and drainage systems have vastly improved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On coastal flooding<\/strong>, the authors rely heavily on sea-level rise, noting that \u201c<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

global sea level has risen by around 20 centimetres since pre-industrial times<\/em>\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

and that flooding<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cwould have been less<\/em>\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

a century earlier during events like Hurricane Sandy. But they gloss over local variability, subsidence, and historical storms of equal or greater magnitude. Context is everything\u2014and here, it\u2019s notably absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Theoretical Constructs and the Mirage of Consensus<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

One of the more revealing passages deals with wind speeds<\/strong>. The authors admit that<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cthe wind-intensity increase is harder to observe than sea-level rise<\/em>,\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

yet assert,<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cmultiple lines of evidence support an increase in wind speeds as an important factor contributing to increased risk<\/em>\u201d.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

That\u2019s not science; that\u2019s theology. Evidence that can\u2019t be reliably observed shouldn\u2019t be used to underwrite regulatory or economic policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On storm frequency<\/strong>, they are more candid:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cResearchers do not yet fully understand what controls the global frequency of hurricanes, and models produce conflicting predictions<\/em>\u201d.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

But instead of urging restraint, they dive deeper into the weeds of uncertainty, hoping the complexity will obscure the weakness of the claim.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Atlantic hurricane uptick? Not due to greenhouse gases, they say\u2014it\u2019s likely<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cmore a response to decreasing air pollution than to increasing greenhouse gases<\/em>\u201d.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

This claim directly contradicts the mainstream narrative that CO2 is the prime villain. And yet, they deploy it only to claim that the hurricane surge is real\u2014even if the carbon culprit isn\u2019t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A Moving Goalpost, Expertly Camouflaged<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Their discussion of aerosol impacts is perhaps the article\u2019s most candid moment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cIn the mid-twentieth century, aerosols\u2026 had a cooling effect by reflecting solar radiation away from Earth<\/em>,\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

they explain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cThis effect has reduced as clean-air policies have taken hold. Simply put, more solar radiation means warmer seas<\/em>\u201d.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Fair enough\u2014but what follows is the quiet pivot:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cIf that explanation is true, it implies that the recent increase in Atlantic hurricane intensity is unlikely to continue<\/em>,\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

yet also \u201c<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

that the dearth of Atlantic hurricane activity in the 1970s and 1980s is unlikely to be repeated<\/em>\u201d.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

In short: whatever happens, the authors\u2019 thesis remains valid. Heads they win, tails you still lose.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is textbook motivated reasoning. The causal arrow is bent and twisted until it points wherever the authors need it to\u2014toward more funding, more intervention, more regulation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Models, Models Everywhere\u2014And Not a Truth to Hold<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Finally, they return to models.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cEarth-system models project that greenhouse gases will tend to further increase equatorial eastern Pacific sea temperatures\u2026 This is consistent with the expectation of low Atlantic hurricane activity in coming decades,<\/em>\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

they write\u2014only to immediately undercut it:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cBut observations have instead demonstrated the opposite<\/em>\u201d.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

So let\u2019s tally that up: the models say one thing, reality says another, and the authors still walk away claiming credibility. In any other field, this would trigger a re-evaluation of assumptions. In climate science, it\u2019s just another paragraph.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Conclusion: The Climate Policy Ouroboros<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The final message of the piece is a kind of circular logic loop: uncertainty justifies concern, concern justifies policy, and policy then retroactively validates the concern.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cOur overall opinion is that present US hurricane hazard is greater than the longer-term historical average<\/em>,\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

the authors write, due to<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cwell-understood factors that increase hazard and poorly understood ones that might increase it<\/em>\u201d.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Translation: we don\u2019t know what we don\u2019t know, but let\u2019s act as if we do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is not empirical science. This is moral theater, staged with peer-reviewed props. It takes a complicated, poorly understood, regionally inconsistent phenomenon like hurricane frequency and repackages it as a policy cudgel.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

And therein lies the real danger. Not from the storms\u2014but from the political winds that follow them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

It would be nearly impossible to fabricate a better fictional demonstration of motivated reasoning than the May 2025\u00a0Nature\u00a0commentary titled\u00a0\u201cHurricane risk in a changing climate \u2014 the role of uncertainty\u201d\u00a0by Adam Sobel and Kerry Emanuel. In fact, if one needed a primary source to study how scientific ambiguity can be massaged into policy certainty, this article would serve beautifully.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":380520,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818056,691818153,691831522,691824261,691818104,691835417,691818521],"class_list":["post-380515","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-climate-change","tag-climate-models","tag-coastal-flooding","tag-frequency-of-hurricanes","tag-hurricanes","tag-policy-driven-science","tag-sea-level-rise","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/OIG2-40.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1AZl","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":244445,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=244445","url_meta":{"origin":380515,"position":0},"title":"Wrong, Phys.org, Atmospheric Rivers and Hurricanes are Not Getting Worse","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"02\/19\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Atmospheric rivers are a natural part of the West coast\u2019s climate, and neither historic data, nor recent trend data, indicate that the frequency or severity of those events are increasing.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/image-473.png?fit=1200%2C673&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/image-473.png?fit=1200%2C673&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/image-473.png?fit=1200%2C673&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/image-473.png?fit=1200%2C673&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/image-473.png?fit=1200%2C673&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":246258,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=246258","url_meta":{"origin":380515,"position":1},"title":"No, Axios, Future U.S. Hurricane Damage Losses Will Not be Driven by Climate Change","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"03\/01\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The article is misleading. 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