{"id":379873,"date":"2025-05-25T12:05:33","date_gmt":"2025-05-25T10:05:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=379873"},"modified":"2025-05-25T12:05:35","modified_gmt":"2025-05-25T10:05:35","slug":"warming-but-far-from-global","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=379873","title":{"rendered":"Warming, But Far From Global"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Guest Post by<\/em><\/strong> Willis Eschenbach<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

My mind wanders in curious back byways. I got to thinking about the \u201cglobal\u201d part of \u201cglobal warming\u201d. Over the past ~ quarter century, according to the CERES satellite data, here\u2019s where the world has warmed and where it has cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"
Figure 1. Areas of warming and cooling as shown by the CERES satellite dataset. White contours outline the areas that are cooling.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Now, before you get all passionate about how \u201cnobody predicted that global warming would actually be global\u201d<\/em>, that\u2019s true \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 and it\u2019s also true that nobody predicted that India, South Africa, most of Northern Africa and South America, the North Atlantic, and the Southern Ocean would cool over that period, in some cases by a degree or more per decade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nor can any scientist or computer model explain WHY those specific areas and not other areas are cooling \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So I thought I\u2019d take a look at what the models are saying about that same time period, March 2000 to February 2024. I used the models from the Computer Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) in order to give the models every possible advantage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why is that an advantage? Well, because the historical data that they are trained to replicate goes from 1850 to 2014. It\u2019s only in 2015 and later that they are actually predicting the future. Up until 2014, they have all the available observational data to train their model against.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, I went and got the surface air temperature outputs for 39 different models from the marvelous\u00a0KNMI data site<\/a>. Here are the first 12 of them, the rest are pretty much of a muchness.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n
\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n
\n
\"\"
Figure 2. Areas of warming and cooling as shown by twelve of the CMIP6 climate models. As in Figure 1, white contours outline the areas that are cooling. Note that by an error, I did not change the labels on the charts from my default, which is W\/m2, to the proper label, which is \u00b0C\/decade. Mea maxima culpa, but the creation of the graphics was quite laborious, so I\u2019m not going to redo them<\/em>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

As you can see, the results are what you\u2019d call \u201call over the map\u201d. The global trends range from ~ 0.10 \u00b0C per decade up to ~ 0.40 \u00b0C per decade. And every one of them shows very different areas and amounts of heating and cooling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now, the prevailing theory is that you get a more accurate answer by averaging what they call an \u201censemble\u201d of models. I\u2019ve never believed that one bit; that seems like crazy talk. Average a bunch of bad models that disagree with each other to get a valid result?

Really?

But that\u2019s what the climate megabrains do, so I averaged the 39 models to see what that looks like. Here\u2019s that result.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"
Figure 3. Areas of warming as shown by the average of 39 of the CMIP6 climate models.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Now you may be wondering, where are the white contours outlining the areas that are cooling?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The answer is \u2026 there are none.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because the areas of cooling predicted by each model are somewhat randomly scattered around the planet and the overall projection is one of warming, when you average them all, you end up with no average cooling anywhere \u2026 et voil\u00e0, you have \u201cglobal\u201d warming.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Funny how that works out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With warmest wishes for everyone, I remain,

Yr. obt. svt.,<\/p>\n\n\n\n

w.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

PS: As always, I ask that when you comment, you quote the exact words you are referring to<\/strong>. It avoids endless misunderstandings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

My mind wanders in curious back byways. I got to thinking about the \u201cglobal\u201d part of \u201cglobal warming\u201d. Over the past ~ quarter century, according to the CERES satellite data, here\u2019s where the world has warmed and where it has cooled.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":379775,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691835302,691818153,691821710,691828489,691818087],"class_list":{"0":"post-379873","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-ceres-satellite-data","9":"tag-climate-models","10":"tag-climate-myths","11":"tag-computer-model-intercomparison-project-6-cmip6","12":"tag-global-warming","14":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/0ChatGPT-Image-24.-Mai-2025-20_11_35.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1AOZ","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":426924,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=426924","url_meta":{"origin":379873,"position":0},"title":"CERES Data Shocker: Clouds and Albedo Changes Account for All Modern Warming","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"18\/02\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Nikolov and Zeller use NASA CERES satellite data on planetary albedo (Earth's reflectivity) and compare it to their semi-empirical model, which downplays or replaces the traditional greenhouse effect with a thermodynamic pressure-based explanation for atmospheric warming.","rel":"","context":"In \"albedo changes\"","block_context":{"text":"albedo changes","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=albedo-changes"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/AQMONR7W1WkelAFxbQi9d6Gzi-8zRmMnp2HM4reHPiL577qKJZLwz7XGiVCukBMSy3WS8GdaxT_O5lT9aicR80qDPRyke9m4jvhiilhH6UMudJ-OQkQWDESym3DfMlU548jP6hNBJFGHHSR7SHuCFRqBzw6YQA-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/AQMONR7W1WkelAFxbQi9d6Gzi-8zRmMnp2HM4reHPiL577qKJZLwz7XGiVCukBMSy3WS8GdaxT_O5lT9aicR80qDPRyke9m4jvhiilhH6UMudJ-OQkQWDESym3DfMlU548jP6hNBJFGHHSR7SHuCFRqBzw6YQA-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/AQMONR7W1WkelAFxbQi9d6Gzi-8zRmMnp2HM4reHPiL577qKJZLwz7XGiVCukBMSy3WS8GdaxT_O5lT9aicR80qDPRyke9m4jvhiilhH6UMudJ-OQkQWDESym3DfMlU548jP6hNBJFGHHSR7SHuCFRqBzw6YQA-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/AQMONR7W1WkelAFxbQi9d6Gzi-8zRmMnp2HM4reHPiL577qKJZLwz7XGiVCukBMSy3WS8GdaxT_O5lT9aicR80qDPRyke9m4jvhiilhH6UMudJ-OQkQWDESym3DfMlU548jP6hNBJFGHHSR7SHuCFRqBzw6YQA-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/AQMONR7W1WkelAFxbQi9d6Gzi-8zRmMnp2HM4reHPiL577qKJZLwz7XGiVCukBMSy3WS8GdaxT_O5lT9aicR80qDPRyke9m4jvhiilhH6UMudJ-OQkQWDESym3DfMlU548jP6hNBJFGHHSR7SHuCFRqBzw6YQA-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":340498,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=340498","url_meta":{"origin":379873,"position":1},"title":"\u00a0Scientists: 100% Of 2000-2023 Warming Explained By Solar Forcing\u2026Human Climate Forcing \u2018Does Not Exist In Reality\u2019","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"24\/08\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"A new, observation-based study makes extensive use of satellite data (CERES) to quantify the driving mechanism behind the global surface air temperature (GSAT) warming throughout the first 24 years of the 21st century.","rel":"","context":"In \"EEI [Earth\u2019s Energy Imbalance]\"","block_context":{"text":"EEI [Earth\u2019s Energy Imbalance]","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=eei-earths-energy-imbalance"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/01868412.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/01868412.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/01868412.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/01868412.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/01868412.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":283364,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=283364","url_meta":{"origin":379873,"position":2},"title":"IPCC Global Warming Reports Underestimated Role of Sun in Warming:\u00a0Study","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"15\/10\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"IPCC reports based on failed computer climate models underestimated the role of the Sun in global warming. From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT By Paul Homewood Reports on global warming issued by the United Nations\u2019 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) underestimate the role of the Sun in\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Center for Environmental Research and Earth Science (CERES)\"","block_context":{"text":"Center for Environmental Research and Earth Science (CERES)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=center-for-environmental-research-and-earth-science-ceres"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0shutterstock_21401530.jpg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0shutterstock_21401530.jpg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0shutterstock_21401530.jpg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0shutterstock_21401530.jpg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0shutterstock_21401530.jpg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":277214,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=277214","url_meta":{"origin":379873,"position":3},"title":"It\u2019s The Asphalt, Stupid! New Study Suggests Global Warming Mostly An Urban Problem","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"04\/09\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"A new study published in the scientific peer-reviewed journal,\u00a0Climate, by 37 researchers from 18 countries suggests that current estimates of global warming are contaminated by urban warming biases.","rel":"","context":"In \"CERES Science\"","block_context":{"text":"CERES Science","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=ceres-science"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-141.png?fit=1024%2C614&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-141.png?fit=1024%2C614&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-141.png?fit=1024%2C614&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-141.png?fit=1024%2C614&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":254686,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=254686","url_meta":{"origin":379873,"position":4},"title":"The Mysterious AR6 ECS, Part 2, the Impact of Clouds","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"26\/04\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The yearly net impact of clouds on outgoing and incoming radiation varies over one W\/m2\u00a0from year-to-year, according to CERES satellite data.[1]\u00a0AR6 tells us that cloud feedbacks, to GHG surface warming, are the largest source of uncertainty in their assessment of the warming in the past century as we can see\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"AR6 ECS\"","block_context":{"text":"AR6 ECS","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=ar6-ecs"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00cumulus-cloud-1428590128Abv-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00cumulus-cloud-1428590128Abv-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00cumulus-cloud-1428590128Abv-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00cumulus-cloud-1428590128Abv-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00cumulus-cloud-1428590128Abv-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":277031,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=277031","url_meta":{"origin":379873,"position":5},"title":"Observational and theoretical evidence that cloud feedback decreases global warming","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"03\/09\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Well, I decided to take a shot at publishing my views on the cloud feedback response to increases in surface warming. I wrote it up and sent it for peer review to the Journal of Climate.","rel":"","context":"In \"Atlantic\"","block_context":{"text":"Atlantic","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=atlantic"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/00stratwarming.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/00stratwarming.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/00stratwarming.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/00stratwarming.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/00stratwarming.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/379873","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=379873"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/379873\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":379888,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/379873\/revisions\/379888"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/379775"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=379873"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=379873"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=379873"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}