{"id":378776,"date":"2025-05-19T13:05:53","date_gmt":"2025-05-19T11:05:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=378776"},"modified":"2025-05-19T13:05:54","modified_gmt":"2025-05-19T11:05:54","slug":"the-atmosphere-is-now-in-neutral","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=378776","title":{"rendered":"The Atmosphere is Now in Neutral"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Cliff Mass Weather Blog<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By CliffMass<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Midway through May is a good time to check on the status of El Nino\/La Nina, since its status becomes clearer at this time of the year and will have a major impact on the weather of next winter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

NOAA’s latest forecast is out….and I will describe it below.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

El Nino and La Nina are on the opposite poles of the same phenomenon:  the shift of the waters of the central tropical Pacific from warmer than normal (El Nino), to near normal (Neutral of La Nada), to below normal (La Nina).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A plot of the sea surface temperatures in this critical area (the Ni\u00f1o3.4 area) is shown below (actually the differences from normal).  After experiencing the cool waters this winter (La Nina), we are now in neutral territory.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n
\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

The correlation of the tropical water temperature with our weather during the summer is weak in any case, but winter is a different story.   <\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, what do the latest forecasts suggest? As shown below, although there is quite a range in predictions, the general trend is towards continued neutral conditions for the remainder of the year.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

What are the implications of neutral conditions for next winter?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Increased chances of a major wind event from an approaching midlatitude low-pressure system.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Increased chance of a strong atmospheric river that produces major flooding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bottom line: neutral years are known for their meteorological action.  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Midway through May is a good time to check on the status of El Nino\/La Nina, since its status becomes clearer at this time of the year and will have a major impact on the weather of next winter.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":378788,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"jetpack_seo_schema_type":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_wpcom_ai_launchpad_first_post":false,"_jetpack_hide_featured_image":false,"_jetpack_featured_image_duplicate_dismissed":0,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691835164,691818397,691820699],"class_list":["post-378776","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-el-nino-la-nina-3","tag-noaa","tag-sea-surface-temperatures","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1Axi","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":415590,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=415590","url_meta":{"origin":378776,"position":0},"title":"La Nina Strengthens: What are the Implications for this Winter?","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"12\/01\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"La Ni\u00f1a, associated with cool water over the tropical Pacific, has a significant impact on Northwest weather, influencing temperature, precipitation, and snowfall.\u00a0\u00a0","rel":"","context":"In \"ENSO (El Ni\u00f1o-Southern Oscillation)\"","block_context":{"text":"ENSO (El Ni\u00f1o-Southern Oscillation)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=enso-el-nino-southern-oscillation"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/00Screenshot-2025-12-01-181306.png?fit=1200%2C673&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/00Screenshot-2025-12-01-181306.png?fit=1200%2C673&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/00Screenshot-2025-12-01-181306.png?fit=1200%2C673&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/00Screenshot-2025-12-01-181306.png?fit=1200%2C673&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/00Screenshot-2025-12-01-181306.png?fit=1200%2C673&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":457605,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=457605","url_meta":{"origin":378776,"position":1},"title":"Outlook: Pacific El Ni\u00f1o and Atlantic Ni\u00f1a","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"07\/24\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Pacific El Ni\u00f1o: Strong and strengthening, likely to become very strong this fall\/winter. 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