{"id":378617,"date":"2025-05-16T16:43:46","date_gmt":"2025-05-16T14:43:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=378617"},"modified":"2025-05-16T16:43:47","modified_gmt":"2025-05-16T14:43:47","slug":"james-hansen-climate-cassandra-or-science-salesman","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=378617","title":{"rendered":"James Hansen: Climate Cassandra or Science Salesman?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Charles Rotter<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

One would think that James Hansen\u2014once lionized as the father of modern climate alarmism\u2014might bask in the limelight after a fresh round of histrionics about Earth hurtling toward a \u201cpoint of no return.\u201d Instead, we find him on the pages of his latest blog-style polemic, \u201cLarge Cloud Feedback Confirms High Climate Sensitivity\u201d<\/a><\/em>, complaining that he\u2019s being ostracized<\/em> by the very media and institutions he helped train to bark on command every time the CO2 concentration ticks up another ppm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cA strange phenomenon occurred\u2026 almost uniformly, these reports dismissed our conclusions as a fringe opinion\u2026 Are there important repercussions for the public\u2026 indeed, for the future of all people? The answer\u2026 is \u2018yes.\u2019\u201d

https:\/\/www.columbia.edu\/~jeh1\/mailings\/2025\/CloudFeedback.13May2025.pdf<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

One might suggest that after decades of theatrics, people have simply stopped buying tickets to the same show.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But let\u2019s not be hasty. His newest round of publications deserves scrutiny, not for its recycled gloom, but for the increasingly acrobatic logic and interpretive liberties embedded within.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The \u2018Big FXcking Deal\u2019 and the Cloud Feedback Feedback<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the heart of Hansen\u2019s thesis is the observed decrease in Earth\u2019s albedo\u2014the fraction of sunlight reflected back into space. Hansen pegs this decline at 0.5% over the last two decades, translating to a 1.7 W\/m\u00b2 increase in absorbed solar radiation. This, he insists, proves that cloud feedback must be large and positive, confirming an equilibrium climate sensitivity of 4.5\u00b0C \u00b1 0.5\u00b0C<\/strong> for doubled CO2.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cEarth\u2019s albedo\u2026 has decreased about 0.5%\u2026 we described this change as a BFD\u2026 because it has staggering implications.\u201d

https:\/\/www.columbia.edu\/~jeh1\/mailings\/2025\/CloudFeedback.13May2025.pdf<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Hansen claims that the albedo change cannot be explained by greenhouse gases alone, nor by the \u201cdirect\u201d effects of aerosols. Instead, the culprit must be changes in clouds, which in turn, must be climate feedback.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cThe only substantial climate forcing affecting Earth\u2019s albedo is the \u2018indirect\u2019 aerosol forcing\u2026 most of the 1.7 W\/m\u00b2 increase of energy\u2026 must be due to climate feedbacks.\u201d

https:\/\/www.columbia.edu\/~jeh1\/mailings\/2025\/CloudFeedback.13May2025.pdf<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

This is an assertion in search of a mechanism. He observes warming and cloud changes, assumes causation from CO2 induced warming, and calculates a feedback strength that\u2014surprise\u2014matches his hypothesis. That\u2019s the very definition of motivated reasoning.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"
https:\/\/www.tandfonline.com\/doi\/full\/10.1080\/00139157.2025.2434494#abstract<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Aerosol Forcing as Narrative Spackle<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In his longer \u201cAcceleration\u201d paper, Hansen admits the models are not calibrated against measured aerosol data but against presumed outputs. This gap is pivotal\u2014he uses it to boost both climate sensitivity and his own sense of clairvoyance:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cAerosol forcing and climate sensitivity were wedded in an inappropriate shotgun marriage\u2026 we now seek to disentangle and expose their relationship with simple computations.\u201d

https:\/\/www.tandfonline.com\/doi\/full\/10.1080\/00139157.2025.2434494#abstract<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

He attributes most of the albedo decline to changes in cloud behavior, calling it \u201cproof\u201d of a strong, positive cloud feedback. But what\u2019s lacking is a mechanistic, independently validated causal chain linking CO2 increases to these cloud dynamics. The leap from observation to attribution is made with equations and assumptions, not with direct evidence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The models can fit any historical curve if aerosol parameters are set freely. And that\u2019s precisely what Hansen does\u2014he adjusts the inputs to make the models scream \u201ccatastrophe,\u201d then declares the match to observed warming a triumph of insight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The self-pity is especially ripe in the Cloud Feedback piece:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cCriticisms\u2026 did not address the physics in our three assessments\u2026 Instead, criticisms were largely ad hoc opinions, even ad hominem attacks\u2026 How can science reporting have descended to this level?\u201d

https:\/\/www.columbia.edu\/~jeh1\/mailings\/2025\/CloudFeedback.13May2025.pdf<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Hansen\u2019s argument structure is fundamentally circular: he assumes a high-sensitivity system, interprets ambiguous data to reinforce that view, and then treats the match as confirmation. That\u2019s not how robust hypothesis testing works.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here we have the scientist as prophet, rejected not because his models are unconvincing, but because the masses and the media are insufficiently enlightened. It\u2019s not that his arguments are speculative\u2014it\u2019s that the world is failing him.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hansen\u2019s paper is not so much a scientific analysis as it is a sermon. Every ambiguous result is resolved in favor of catastrophe. Every observational artifact is \u201cproof\u201d of more warming to come. Meanwhile, dissent is brushed off as ignorance, and uncertainty is never allowed to cut both ways.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

His \u201cproof\u201d of a large cloud feedback rests on little more than a curve fit, a CO2 narrative, and a theological certainty in the apocalypse. As a rhetorical performance, it has its good points. As a scientific argument, it\u2019s hollow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And that, to borrow from his own words, is the real \u201cBFD.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steve Milloy of Junk Science<\/a> notes:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

Climate is becoming a Greek tragedy: Climate hoax godfather James Hansen “confirms” that fewer clouds and more sunshine (vs. emissions) are directly causing warming. He also weeps that he has been cancelled by the “clique of scientists that the media rely on”: “Given the success\u2026 pic.twitter.com\/SnepfD4YuT<\/a>\u2014 Steve Milloy (@JunkScience) May 14, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

One would think that James Hansen\u2014once lionized as the father of modern climate alarmism\u2014might bask in the limelight after a fresh round of histrionics about Earth hurtling toward a \u201cpoint of no return.\u201d Instead, we find him on the pages of his latest blog-style polemic,\u00a0\u201cLarge Cloud Feedback Confirms High Climate Sensitivity\u201d, complaining that he\u2019s being\u00a0ostracized\u00a0by the very media and institutions he helped train to bark on command every time the CO2 concentration ticks up another ppm.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":378623,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691835127,691829997,691819134,691818056,691818153,691820453],"class_list":{"0":"post-378617","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-albedo-change","9":"tag-carbon-dioxide-co","10":"tag-climate-alarmism","11":"tag-climate-change","12":"tag-climate-models","13":"tag-james-hansen","15":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/0ChatGPT-Image-16.-Mai-2025-16_42_52.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1AuJ","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":414016,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=414016","url_meta":{"origin":378617,"position":0},"title":"Paris Agreement: Dead at Ten (James Hansen was right)","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"11\/20\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"COP30, a CO2-fest of sorts, is failing. Major emitters have not shown up. Virtually all nations and regions are in serious noncompliance with their Paris Agreement goals according to Climate Tracker, and the gap is widening. The new pitch is less about emissions as about the fantasy of cheap wind\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"carbon dioxide (CO\u2082)\"","block_context":{"text":"carbon dioxide (CO\u2082)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=carbon-dioxide-co%e2%82%82"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0AQOV1Ly_K6eqvIzDNauSgjSgzLJNmQSFah47CxlkRa7BXNUyW5gTuT0eCKMDeTlD5BkevoY7UzeabJGEBRjbqq4IXWIyezPeVI9K7tlmxHQkYg1Wa7etac7uyJrxeYwa-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C891&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0AQOV1Ly_K6eqvIzDNauSgjSgzLJNmQSFah47CxlkRa7BXNUyW5gTuT0eCKMDeTlD5BkevoY7UzeabJGEBRjbqq4IXWIyezPeVI9K7tlmxHQkYg1Wa7etac7uyJrxeYwa-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C891&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0AQOV1Ly_K6eqvIzDNauSgjSgzLJNmQSFah47CxlkRa7BXNUyW5gTuT0eCKMDeTlD5BkevoY7UzeabJGEBRjbqq4IXWIyezPeVI9K7tlmxHQkYg1Wa7etac7uyJrxeYwa-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C891&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0AQOV1Ly_K6eqvIzDNauSgjSgzLJNmQSFah47CxlkRa7BXNUyW5gTuT0eCKMDeTlD5BkevoY7UzeabJGEBRjbqq4IXWIyezPeVI9K7tlmxHQkYg1Wa7etac7uyJrxeYwa-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C891&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0AQOV1Ly_K6eqvIzDNauSgjSgzLJNmQSFah47CxlkRa7BXNUyW5gTuT0eCKMDeTlD5BkevoY7UzeabJGEBRjbqq4IXWIyezPeVI9K7tlmxHQkYg1Wa7etac7uyJrxeYwa-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C891&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":286651,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=286651","url_meta":{"origin":378617,"position":1},"title":"James Hansen Hots it Up Even Higher","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"11\/05\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"According to a new\u00a0paper\u00a0in\u00a0Oxford Open Climate Change, the strategies humanity must pursue to reduce climate change will have to include more than reducing greenhouse gases. This new paper comes from the \u201cfather of global warming\u201d James Hansen. From Watts Up With That? 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This review of it 35 years later indicates that Hansen\u2019s testimony was largely just hot air, which no doubt contributed to the legendary stuffiness of the Senate hearing room that day.","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0014014819_0.jpg?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0014014819_0.jpg?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0014014819_0.jpg?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0014014819_0.jpg?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0014014819_0.jpg?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":424513,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=424513","url_meta":{"origin":378617,"position":3},"title":"Celebrating Paris Climate Agreement at Ten? (postmodernism in action)","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"02\/03\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"\u201c[The Paris agreement]\u00a0is a fraud really, a fake. It\u2019s just bullshit for them to say: \u2018We\u2019ll have a 2C warming target\u00a0and then try to do a little better every five years.\u2019 It\u2019s just worthless words\u2026. 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As it turns out, June 2023 was 1.53\u00b0F\u00a0cooler\u00a0in the U.S. than June 1988.","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-350.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-350.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-350.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-350.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":210717,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=210717","url_meta":{"origin":378617,"position":5},"title":"Hansen on Climate\/Energy Policy: An Evaluation and Rebuttal","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"07\/28\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"By Robert Bradley Jr.\u00a0 \u201c\u2026 fossil fuels are a convenient, condensed source of energy that has helped raise living standards throughout much of the world.\u201d\u201cWe must all be aware that demands for effective policies will yield only superficial change as long as the role of special interests in government remains\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/image-363.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/image-363.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/image-363.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/image-363.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/image-363.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/378617","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=378617"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/378617\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":378624,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/378617\/revisions\/378624"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/378623"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=378617"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=378617"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=378617"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}