{"id":377982,"date":"2025-05-12T09:37:35","date_gmt":"2025-05-12T07:37:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=377982"},"modified":"2025-05-12T09:37:37","modified_gmt":"2025-05-12T07:37:37","slug":"noaas-forecast-model-has-a-drop-out-problem","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=377982","title":{"rendered":"NOAA’s Forecast Model Has A Drop Out Problem"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Cliff Mass Weather Blog<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By CliffMass<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Many weather scientists have noted that NOAA’s global weather prediction model, the GFS, is now in fourth place, behind the European Center, the UK Meteorology Office, and the Canadians.   <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is pretty depressing considering the U.S. spends more on weather prediction research and development than all those groups combined.<\/strong>  This NOAA global model is the foundation of U.S. operational weather prediction efforts; thus, Americans are experiencing inferior weather forecasts as a result.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

But it is worse than that.<\/strong>  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

NOAA global predictions have a severe “drop out” problem in which there are sharp, precipitous declines in forecast skill.  Major declines in skill not shared by other major weather prediction centers.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Let me show you.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Below are the skills of various modeling systems from April over the northern hemisphere.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

It evaluates the ability of models to get things right in the middle of the troposphere…around 18,000 ft (500 hPa pressure)–for a day 6 forecast.    1 indicated perfect score.  Above about .8 the forecast is quite useful.  Below ~.65 not so much.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The best forecast is the European Center (red line), while the US model (black line) is generally much less skillful.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note that sometimes the US model skill drops like a rock to below .7 and on one date to below .6.  <\/strong>These are drop outs…and represent severe loss of skill.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note that the European model almost never does the same.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

During the past few days (May 3-4), the U.S. model had another loss of skill (day 5 is shown in this graphic, with red being the US model, blue and black the European Center).\u00a0 Very bad.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Certain atmospheric flow patterns appear to give the US model a hard time.\u00a0 \u00a0One of them is an\u00a0omega block<\/strong>, in which a ridge (high) has two troughs (lows) on both sides.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

In fact, we had a version of this during the past week (see below)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Important:  this dropout problem has been going on for years and has nothing to do with budget cutbacks, fired personnel, or some weather balloons not being launched. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Let us be clear.   The U.S. needs a vital, state-of-science NOAA, with weather prediction capabilities that are the best that weather science can provide.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Many of us in the weather community understand what is wrong with NOAA and have concrete ideas on how to fix this unfortunate situation.    I have written two published papers on the topic and have served on several national committees that provided strong recommendations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The current administration wants to fix NOAA and make American weather prediction “great again.”<\/strong>   But during the first months of their tenure, it has made serious errors, such as mindlessly firing junior staff.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Will they talk to the meteorological community to develop a science-informed plan that could greatly improve U.S. environmental prediction and do so at a lesser cost than today?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I hope so.  It would be a home run for the American people.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

_______<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Announcement<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I will hold a special online Zoom session at 10 AM on Saturday for Patreon supporters<\/a>.  Will answer questions, talk about the spring forecast, and perhaps discuss the current NOAA situation.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Many weather scientists have noted that NOAA’s global weather prediction model, the GFS, is now in fourth place, behind the European Center, the UK Meteorology Office, and the Canadians.\u00a0 \u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":377993,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691835015,691835013,691833237,691835016,691835014],"class_list":{"0":"post-377982","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-european-model","9":"tag-global-weather-prediction-model","10":"tag-noaa-national-oceanic-and-atmospheric-administration","11":"tag-us-model","12":"tag-weather-prediction","14":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/0xyakAi0.jpg?fit=2560%2C1440&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1Aku","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":418046,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=418046","url_meta":{"origin":377982,"position":0},"title":"NOAA deploys new generation of AI-driven global weather models\u00a0","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"21\/12\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"NOAA has launched a groundbreaking new suite of operational, artificial intelligence (AI)-driven global weather prediction models, marking a significant advancement in forecast speed, efficiency, and accuracy. 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