{"id":377982,"date":"2025-05-12T09:37:35","date_gmt":"2025-05-12T07:37:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=377982"},"modified":"2025-05-12T09:37:37","modified_gmt":"2025-05-12T07:37:37","slug":"noaas-forecast-model-has-a-drop-out-problem","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=377982","title":{"rendered":"NOAA’s Forecast Model Has A Drop Out Problem"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Cliff Mass Weather Blog<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By CliffMass<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Many weather scientists have noted that NOAA’s global weather prediction model, the GFS, is now in fourth place, behind the European Center, the UK Meteorology Office, and the Canadians.   <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is pretty depressing considering the U.S. spends more on weather prediction research and development than all those groups combined.<\/strong>  This NOAA global model is the foundation of U.S. operational weather prediction efforts; thus, Americans are experiencing inferior weather forecasts as a result.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

But it is worse than that.<\/strong>  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

NOAA global predictions have a severe “drop out” problem in which there are sharp, precipitous declines in forecast skill.  Major declines in skill not shared by other major weather prediction centers.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Let me show you.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Below are the skills of various modeling systems from April over the northern hemisphere.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

It evaluates the ability of models to get things right in the middle of the troposphere…around 18,000 ft (500 hPa pressure)–for a day 6 forecast.    1 indicated perfect score.  Above about .8 the forecast is quite useful.  Below ~.65 not so much.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The best forecast is the European Center (red line), while the US model (black line) is generally much less skillful.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note that sometimes the US model skill drops like a rock to below .7 and on one date to below .6.  <\/strong>These are drop outs…and represent severe loss of skill.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note that the European model almost never does the same.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

During the past few days (May 3-4), the U.S. model had another loss of skill (day 5 is shown in this graphic, with red being the US model, blue and black the European Center).\u00a0 Very bad.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Certain atmospheric flow patterns appear to give the US model a hard time.\u00a0 \u00a0One of them is an\u00a0omega block<\/strong>, in which a ridge (high) has two troughs (lows) on both sides.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

In fact, we had a version of this during the past week (see below)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Important:  this dropout problem has been going on for years and has nothing to do with budget cutbacks, fired personnel, or some weather balloons not being launched. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Let us be clear.   The U.S. needs a vital, state-of-science NOAA, with weather prediction capabilities that are the best that weather science can provide.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Many of us in the weather community understand what is wrong with NOAA and have concrete ideas on how to fix this unfortunate situation.    I have written two published papers on the topic and have served on several national committees that provided strong recommendations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The current administration wants to fix NOAA and make American weather prediction “great again.”<\/strong>   But during the first months of their tenure, it has made serious errors, such as mindlessly firing junior staff.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Will they talk to the meteorological community to develop a science-informed plan that could greatly improve U.S. environmental prediction and do so at a lesser cost than today?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I hope so.  It would be a home run for the American people.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

_______<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Announcement<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I will hold a special online Zoom session at 10 AM on Saturday for Patreon supporters<\/a>.  Will answer questions, talk about the spring forecast, and perhaps discuss the current NOAA situation.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Many weather scientists have noted that NOAA’s global weather prediction model, the GFS, is now in fourth place, behind the European Center, the UK Meteorology Office, and the Canadians.\u00a0 \u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":377993,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691835015,691835013,691833237,691835016,691835014],"class_list":["post-377982","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-european-model","tag-global-weather-prediction-model","tag-noaa-national-oceanic-and-atmospheric-administration","tag-us-model","tag-weather-prediction","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/0xyakAi0.jpg?fit=2560%2C1440&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1Aku","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":418046,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=418046","url_meta":{"origin":377982,"position":0},"title":"NOAA deploys new generation of AI-driven global weather models\u00a0","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"12\/21\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"NOAA has launched a groundbreaking new suite of operational, artificial intelligence (AI)-driven global weather prediction models, marking a significant advancement in forecast speed, efficiency, and accuracy. The models will provide forecasters with faster delivery of more accurate guidance, while using a fraction of computational resources.","rel":"","context":"In \"AIGEFS (Artificial Intelligence Global Ensemble Forecast System)\"","block_context":{"text":"AIGEFS (Artificial Intelligence Global Ensemble Forecast System)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=aigefs-artificial-intelligence-global-ensemble-forecast-system"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQO6K46xuENC17Rg4g1OXBaskwTJhHjNzIc_o6kDDOH5agHhLlIimiDaZfe0QtUtLYUfdMLbR5Grvz3XLpNGqCmlZErCwBDd2s8vHCT3eRDiMKReMBPt6C9ulMIp7t_QYAMeaHYksOr7gp5ckHWUhjQzC174DA.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQO6K46xuENC17Rg4g1OXBaskwTJhHjNzIc_o6kDDOH5agHhLlIimiDaZfe0QtUtLYUfdMLbR5Grvz3XLpNGqCmlZErCwBDd2s8vHCT3eRDiMKReMBPt6C9ulMIp7t_QYAMeaHYksOr7gp5ckHWUhjQzC174DA.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQO6K46xuENC17Rg4g1OXBaskwTJhHjNzIc_o6kDDOH5agHhLlIimiDaZfe0QtUtLYUfdMLbR5Grvz3XLpNGqCmlZErCwBDd2s8vHCT3eRDiMKReMBPt6C9ulMIp7t_QYAMeaHYksOr7gp5ckHWUhjQzC174DA.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQO6K46xuENC17Rg4g1OXBaskwTJhHjNzIc_o6kDDOH5agHhLlIimiDaZfe0QtUtLYUfdMLbR5Grvz3XLpNGqCmlZErCwBDd2s8vHCT3eRDiMKReMBPt6C9ulMIp7t_QYAMeaHYksOr7gp5ckHWUhjQzC174DA.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQO6K46xuENC17Rg4g1OXBaskwTJhHjNzIc_o6kDDOH5agHhLlIimiDaZfe0QtUtLYUfdMLbR5Grvz3XLpNGqCmlZErCwBDd2s8vHCT3eRDiMKReMBPt6C9ulMIp7t_QYAMeaHYksOr7gp5ckHWUhjQzC174DA.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":446161,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=446161","url_meta":{"origin":377982,"position":1},"title":"GOOD NEWS: NOAA predicts a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/23\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"NOAA released its official 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook on May 21, 2026, and it does call for a below-normal season.","rel":"","context":"In \"2026 Atlantic hurricane season\"","block_context":{"text":"2026 Atlantic hurricane season","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=2026-atlantic-hurricane-season"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-GOOD-NEWS-NOAA-predicts-a-below-normal-2026-Atlantic-hurricane-season.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-GOOD-NEWS-NOAA-predicts-a-below-normal-2026-Atlantic-hurricane-season.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-GOOD-NEWS-NOAA-predicts-a-below-normal-2026-Atlantic-hurricane-season.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-GOOD-NEWS-NOAA-predicts-a-below-normal-2026-Atlantic-hurricane-season.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-GOOD-NEWS-NOAA-predicts-a-below-normal-2026-Atlantic-hurricane-season.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":279071,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=279071","url_meta":{"origin":377982,"position":2},"title":"A Stunningly Good Hurricane Forecast","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"09\/17\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Numerical weather prediction has improved dramatically over the past decades, providing potent warnings for extreme weather, such as hurricanes. There are few better examples than the prediction of\u00a0Hurricane Lee, which will make landfall near the Maine\/New Brunswick border late Saturday.","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate-related deaths\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate-related deaths","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-related-deaths"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/0hurricane-lee-satellite-20230916-1251.jpg?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/0hurricane-lee-satellite-20230916-1251.jpg?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/0hurricane-lee-satellite-20230916-1251.jpg?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/0hurricane-lee-satellite-20230916-1251.jpg?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/0hurricane-lee-satellite-20230916-1251.jpg?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":429303,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=429303","url_meta":{"origin":377982,"position":3},"title":"A final comment on the blizzard: USA! GFS! USA! GFS!","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"03\/03\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"I want to show a storm that no one knows about, just like this past storm, if it where 150 miles to the east would not have been much The Feb 8, 1968, storm was the first time I ever heard my dad say,\u201d Think of all those snowflakes falling\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"blizzard\"","block_context":{"text":"blizzard","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=blizzard"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/0blizzard-USA-GFS-USA-GFS.jpg?fit=784%2C1168&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/0blizzard-USA-GFS-USA-GFS.jpg?fit=784%2C1168&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/0blizzard-USA-GFS-USA-GFS.jpg?fit=784%2C1168&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/0blizzard-USA-GFS-USA-GFS.jpg?fit=784%2C1168&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":253645,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=253645","url_meta":{"origin":377982,"position":4},"title":"David Dilley: Signals that global cooling is beginning | Tom Nelson Pod #97","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"04\/21\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"As the senior research scientist and forecaster for GWO, Mr. Dilley developed ClimatePulse Technology based on Geomagnetic Cycles of the earth-moon-and sun, and how these cycles align with historical, present day and future cycles of climate and weather.","rel":"","context":"In \"Air Force\"","block_context":{"text":"Air Force","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=air-force"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00Screenshot-2023-04-21-082941.png?fit=893%2C504&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00Screenshot-2023-04-21-082941.png?fit=893%2C504&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00Screenshot-2023-04-21-082941.png?fit=893%2C504&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00Screenshot-2023-04-21-082941.png?fit=893%2C504&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":259473,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=259473","url_meta":{"origin":377982,"position":5},"title":"NOAA predicts a near-normal 2023 Atlantic hurricane season","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/28\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Hurricanes are only neat and exciting when they are happening someplace else to someone else.\u00a0 Up close, they are dangerous even for those well prepared.","rel":"","context":"In \"Hurricanes\"","block_context":{"text":"Hurricanes","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=hurricanes"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0Hurricane-4.jpeg?fit=1200%2C745&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0Hurricane-4.jpeg?fit=1200%2C745&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0Hurricane-4.jpeg?fit=1200%2C745&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0Hurricane-4.jpeg?fit=1200%2C745&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0Hurricane-4.jpeg?fit=1200%2C745&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/377982","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=377982"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/377982\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":377994,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/377982\/revisions\/377994"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/377993"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=377982"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=377982"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=377982"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}