{"id":377958,"date":"2025-05-12T08:17:36","date_gmt":"2025-05-12T06:17:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=377958"},"modified":"2025-05-12T08:17:38","modified_gmt":"2025-05-12T06:17:38","slug":"bbc-think-they-know-more-about-hurricanes-than-noaa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=377958","title":{"rendered":"BBC Think They Know More About Hurricanes Than\u00a0NOAA"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Paul Homewood<\/p>\n\n\n\n

You may remember this BBC story about the Atlantic hurricane season last year, which then went into great length to claim that global warming warming is making more powerful:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/world-us-canada-42251921<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Their fake claim is totally at odds with what NOAA actually said earlier this year:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
https:\/\/www.gfdl.noaa.gov\/global-warming-and-hurricanes\/<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Disgracefully they even presented this graph, purportedly showing an explosion in the number of major hurricanes in the last three decades. The graph is, of course, fake because it compares satellite era data with pre-satellite, when many hurricanes were never spotted:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

They have now responded to my complaint, which pointed out NOAA\u2019s assessment:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We are sorry we were unable to resolve your concerns with our last email and hopefully this response will rectify that situation.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In considering your email\u2019s concerns we have looked at the article, other content on this issue and discussed the issues with the author of the BBC\u2019s report.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Please consider this response in tandem with our original response to your email of complaint.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regarding the comments your email makes about the graphic, we consider it is, it is an accurate representation of NOAA\u2019s dataset, and we have a footnote acknowledging that storm frequencies and intensities are less certain further back in time.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The article is clear that the number of tropical cyclones globally has likely not increased, and that long-term data is limited in some regions.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

We\u2019d also like to draw your attention to a key statement from the IPCC (an authoritative source on climate science) is \u201cIt is likely that the global proportion of Category 3\u20135 tropical cyclone instances has increased over the past four decades.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I have now sent my complaint up to the ECU. This is what I have written to them:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

The BBC article is principally about the Atlantic hurricane season, so the IPCC references to global trends which you quote have no relevance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As far as Atlantic trends are concerned, NOAA, who are the recognised authority in this area, are absolutely clear:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThere is no strong evidence of century-scale increasing trends in U.S. landfalling hurricanes or major hurricanes. Similarly for Atlantic basin-wide<\/em> hurricane frequency (after adjusting for changing observing capabilities over time), there is not strong evidence for an increase since the late 1800s in hurricanes, major hurricanes, or the proportion of hurricanes that reach major hurricane intensity.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cA number of measures of Atlantic hurricane activity have increased since 1980, but in the of case of metrics where much longer records are available, trends since 1980 are not representative of longer (e.g., century-scale) trends.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cthere is no significant long-term trend (since the 1880s) in the proportion<\/em> of hurricanes that become major hurricanes\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAs far as Category 4-5 intensity storms, basin-wide unadjusted storm counts show a pronounced increase since the mid-1940s (Bender et al., 2010), but those authors cautioned that the data from such earlier decades needs to be carefully assessed for data inhomogeneity problems before such trends can be accepted as reliable \u201c<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/www.gfdl.noaa.gov\/global-warming-and-hurricanes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other words, hurricanes are not getting stronger.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

You refer to an increase in hurricane intensity in the last 40 years, but this is just a recovery from a deep minimum in the 1960s to 80s, before which intensity was at similar levels to now:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cincreases in basin-wide hurricane and major hurricane activity since the 1970s are not part of a century-scale increase, but a recovery from a deep minimum in the 1960s\u20131980s.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41467-021-24268-5<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This deep minimum is connected to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), which NOAA explain:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cDuring warm phases of the AMO, the numbers of tropical storms that mature into severe hurricanes is much greater than during cool phases, at least twice as many<\/a>. Since the AMO switched to its warm phase around 1995, severe hurricanes have become much more frequent and this has led to a crisis in the insurance industry.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/www.aoml.noaa.gov\/phod\/faq\/amo_faq.php<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The AMO was in cold phase in the 1960s to 80s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As NOAA have stated, while there are short term cyclical ups and downs, they can find no evidence on longer term trends in the number of major hurricanes or the proportion which are major. Hurricanes are not getting more intense, in other words.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As for the graphic of major Atlantic hurricanes, you state that it is based on NOAA\u2019s dataset. However NOAA clearly state that many hurricanes were not spotted prior to the satellite era:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cHowever, the density of reporting ship traffic over the Atlantic was relatively sparse during the early decades of this record, such that if storms from the modern era (post 1965) had hypothetically occurred during those earlier decades, a substantial number of storms would likely not have been directly observed by the ship-based \u201cobserving network of opportunity\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/www.gfdl.noaa.gov\/global-warming-and-hurricanes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is also considerable evidence that hurricane intensity was under recorded in the pre satellite era because of observational limitations. One study by NOAA hurricane scientists found that of ten recent Cat 5 hurricanes, only two would have been recorded using 1940s technology. They concluded:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe results suggest that intensity estimates for extreme tropical cyclones prior to the satellite era are unreliable for trend and variability analysis\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/journals.ametsoc.org\/view\/journals\/clim\/25\/13\/jcli-d-11-00420.1.xml<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Plainly it is simply wrong to compare satellite era data with pre-satellite data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Of course the fact that Atlantic hurricanes have not been getting stronger rather makes a nonsense of the report\u2019s theories about warmer oceans. Either the theory is wrong or the seas were just as hot as now a century ago!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A conundrum for your Climate Reporter, I would suggest!<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

You may remember this BBC story about the Atlantic hurricane season last year, which then went into great length to claim that global warming warming is making more powerful<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":377966,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818389,691835008,691818087,691818104,691835007,691818397],"class_list":{"0":"post-377958","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-bbc","9":"tag-global-trends","10":"tag-global-warming","11":"tag-hurricanes","12":"tag-long-term-data","13":"tag-noaa","15":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/0difference-between-a-hurricane-and-tornado-Hurricane-Damage-scaled-1.jpeg?fit=2560%2C1706&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1Ak6","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":410910,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=410910","url_meta":{"origin":377958,"position":0},"title":"BBC Lie About Hurricane\u00a0Melissa","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"30\/10\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The frequency of very intense hurricanes such as Melissa is increasing This simply is not true.","rel":"","context":"In \"BBC\"","block_context":{"text":"BBC","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=bbc"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0Screenshot-2025-10-30-083734.png?fit=1200%2C679&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0Screenshot-2025-10-30-083734.png?fit=1200%2C679&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0Screenshot-2025-10-30-083734.png?fit=1200%2C679&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0Screenshot-2025-10-30-083734.png?fit=1200%2C679&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0Screenshot-2025-10-30-083734.png?fit=1200%2C679&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":230963,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=230963","url_meta":{"origin":377958,"position":1},"title":"BBC Hurricane Complaint","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"25\/11\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The third most active claim refers to Tropical Storms, not Hurricanes, so this needs to be corrected.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/image-874.png?fit=1024%2C576&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/image-874.png?fit=1024%2C576&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/image-874.png?fit=1024%2C576&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/image-874.png?fit=1024%2C576&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":420977,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=420977","url_meta":{"origin":377958,"position":2},"title":"Atlantic Hurricane Season\u00a02025","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"11\/01\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"By far the most complete and robust data we have for hurricanes is for those which have hit the US coast. 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