{"id":377615,"date":"2025-05-08T10:11:25","date_gmt":"2025-05-08T08:11:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=377615"},"modified":"2025-05-08T10:11:26","modified_gmt":"2025-05-08T08:11:26","slug":"wrong-phys-org-climate-change-isnt-causing-a-rise-in-lost-school-days","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=377615","title":{"rendered":"Wrong, Phys.org, Climate Change Isn\u2019t Causing A Rise in Lost School Days"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From ClimateRealism<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Anthony Watts<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

In a recent editorial published by Phys.org<\/a>, researchers claim that climate change is driving more powerful and frequent hurricanes, which in turn are causing widespread school closures labeling it an \u201coverlooked consequence\u201d of our supposedly worsening climate. This narrative is false. The available data shows no trend of increasing hurricane frequency or intensity due to human-induced climate change, and if the storms themselves aren\u2019t worsening, the claim that they are causing more missed school days due to climate change collapses under its own weight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The central claim that hurricanes are becoming more destructive and frequent due to climate change is contradicted by both long-term observational data and the official position of major scientific institutions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration\u2019s (NOAA) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL)<\/a>, there is no strong evidence of an increase in either the number or intensity of hurricanes globally due to human-caused climate change. In fact, NOAA writes:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt is premature to conclude with high confidence that increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations have had a detectable impact on Atlantic basin hurricane activity.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

NOAA, while careful to attribute a \u201cpossible\u201d increase in storm intensity in some basins, is consistent in stating that natural variability plays a dominant role in hurricane behavior, particularly in the Atlantic, where multidecadal oscillations\u2014like the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)<\/a>\u2014are primary drivers of activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moreover, NOAA\u2019s Historical Hurricane Tracks database<\/a> reveals that the frequency of U.S. landfalling hurricanes has not increased over the past century. What\u2019s more telling is that major hurricane (Category 3 and above) landfalls have remained steady or even declined slightly when viewed across long-term records. (See the figure, below)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Figure 1. This figure shows that global hurricane and tropical cyclone activity is not increasing. Even with the slight uptick in the number of tropical storms in 2021, it is still below the peak recorded in 1971. Source: Ryan N. Maue,\u00a0<\/em>\u201cGlobal Tropical Cyclone Activity,\u201d Climate Atlas<\/a>, accessed May 4, 2025.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

In fact, as Climate at a Glance: Hurricanes<\/em><\/a> notes, 2005 to 2016 marked the longest stretch in U.S. history without a major hurricane making landfall, a record-shattering 11-year hiatus. If climate change were fueling more severe hurricanes impacting the USA, where were they hiding for over a decade?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even the often-cited Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) agrees. Their AR6 Working Group I report<\/a> states there is \u201clow confidence\u201d in long-term (centennial-scale) increases in the frequency or intensity of hurricanes<\/strong>. That\u2019s not a skeptical website talking\u2014it\u2019s the IPCC itself admitting the data doesn\u2019t justify alarmism.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The authors of the Phys.org piece make the speculative leap from \u201cclimate-driven hurricanes\u201d to \u201cmissed school days.\u201d But their logic runs off the rails here. There\u2019s no credible evidence that links climate change to educational disruptions. Even if storm-related school closures are increasing in some areas, the cause is due to shifts in administrative policy, liability concerns, and enhanced emergency response protocols, rather than more intense weather.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Schools today have better warning systems in place for inclement weather and are quicker to close as a precaution than they were 20 or 30 years ago. In decades past, a Category 1 hurricane approaching the coast would maybe result in a weather warning; today it often leads to multi-day shutdowns, even in regions that escape the brunt of the storm. That change reflects institutional behavior\u2014not climatological shifts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hurricanes have always<\/em> disrupted coastal life, but because there is no evidence hurricane numbers or intensity have increased during the recent period of slight warming, it is impossible to attribute any increase in school closures to climate change induced hurricanes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This article is a textbook example of shoddy research dressed up as urgent policy insight. By stretching an already weak climate claim\u2014about worsening cyclones\u2014into an even more tenuous social consequence\u2014missed school days\u2014it commits the cardinal sin of science: drawing sweeping conclusions from flimsy, cherry-picked evidence. There is no measurable increase in hurricane strength or frequency. Therefore, there is no climate change driven crisis of school disruption. The authors of this editorial should get an \u201cF\u201d in climate literacy\u2014 for failing the scientific smell test. Readers deserve better than this kind of unsupported alarmism.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In a\u00a0recent editorial published by Phys.org, researchers claim that climate change is driving more powerful and frequent hurricanes, which in turn are causing widespread school closures labeling it an \u201coverlooked consequence\u201d of our supposedly worsening climate. This narrative is false. The available data shows no trend of increasing hurricane frequency or intensity due to human-induced climate change, and if the storms themselves aren\u2019t worsening, the claim that they are causing more missed school days due to climate change collapses under its own weight.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":377622,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691828920,691818056,691818101,691818104,691820922,691828892,691824536],"class_list":{"0":"post-377615","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-atlantic-multidecadal-oscillation-amo","9":"tag-climate-change","10":"tag-cyclones","11":"tag-hurricanes","12":"tag-intergovernmental-panel-on-climate-change-ipcc","13":"tag-national-oceanic-and-atmospheric-administrations-noaa","14":"tag-phys-org","16":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/image-102.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1Aez","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":244445,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=244445","url_meta":{"origin":377615,"position":0},"title":"Wrong, Phys.org, Atmospheric Rivers and Hurricanes are Not Getting Worse","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"19\/02\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Atmospheric rivers are a natural part of the West coast\u2019s climate, and neither historic data, nor recent trend data, indicate that the frequency or severity of those events are increasing.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/image-473.png?fit=1200%2C673&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/image-473.png?fit=1200%2C673&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/image-473.png?fit=1200%2C673&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/image-473.png?fit=1200%2C673&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/image-473.png?fit=1200%2C673&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":202543,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=202543","url_meta":{"origin":377615,"position":1},"title":"Wrong, LiveScience, Global Weather Not Worsening","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"02\/06\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Near the top of the search results on Google news for the term \u201cclimate change\u201d is a story from LiveScience claiming that climate change is causing worsening weather events globally, for example, flooding and drought, hurricanes, and cold snaps. 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