{"id":377452,"date":"2025-05-07T10:49:03","date_gmt":"2025-05-07T08:49:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=377452"},"modified":"2025-05-07T10:49:05","modified_gmt":"2025-05-07T08:49:05","slug":"sea-level-nasa-versus-noaa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=377452","title":{"rendered":"Sea Level: NASA Versus NOAA"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Willis Eschenbach<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I see that the NASA folks are busily putting the hype back into hyperventilate. Over at The Cool Down<\/em>, the news is headlined:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

NASA issues warning after sudden change in the ocean surprises scientists: \u2018Getting faster and faster\u2019<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

From the underlying NASA article<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

Global sea level rose faster than expected in 2024, mostly because of ocean water expanding as it warms, or thermal expansion. According to a NASA-led analysis, last year\u2019s rate of rise was 0.23 inches (0.59 centimeters) per year, compared to the expected rate of 0.17 inches (0.43 centimeters) per year.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe rise we saw in 2024 was higher than we expected,\u201d said Josh Willis, a sea level researcher at NASA\u2019s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in Southern California. \u201cEvery year is a little bit different, but what\u2019s clear is that the ocean continues to rise, and the rate of rise is getting faster and faster.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

YIKES! Be very scared!

Here\u2019s the image of the satellite-based sea level measurements that Josh Willis used to illustrate the change.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"
Figure 1. JPL sea level data. I haven\u2019t found the source for the data, which shows an annual swing over the course of each year of 5 to 20 mm.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Here\u2019s the first oddity. Take a look at this closeup of the above graphic.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"
Figure 2. Closeup of Figure 1<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

My problem is, I can\u2019t really tell what they are calling the \u201c2024 RISE\u201d. First, from the vertical black line it seems like they are measuring the annual swing \u2026 but why? Next, the vertical black line (presumably the 5.9 mm rise) covers less vertical distance than the vertical extent of the slanted green line showing the 4.3 mm rise. ??<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And how is the annual swing at all comparable to the actual rate of sea rise? Overall sea level rise has nothing to do with annual swings. What am I missing here?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Setting that conundrum aside for the moment, the NASA JPL\u2019s data is different from the NOAA Laboratory for Satellite Altimetry<\/a> data below.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"
Figure 3. NOAA graph showing the sea level along with the timing and overlaps of the satellites. Note the data in the top right corner.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

The JPL data is also different from the\u00a0University of Colorado Sea Level Research Group\u00a0<\/a>data. However, other than ending slightly before the end of the NOAA data, the Colorado data agrees with the NOAA data above.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"
Figure 4. Sea levels by satellite from the University of Colorado. Note that it agrees with the NOAA data shown in Figure 4.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Now, both the NASA graph and the Colorado graph above claim that the satellites show an acceleration of 0.083 mm\/yr^2. However, back in 2021,\u00a0I showed\u00a0<\/a>that the acceleration was nothing more than an artifact of improperly spliced satellites. Here\u2019s the money graph from that post.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"
Figure 5. 2021 graph of NOAA sea level data, showing the trend of each of the full individual satellite records and the overall trend.\u00a0<\/em>\u00a0SOURCE: NOAA\u00a0Excel Spreadsheet<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Note that there are two pairs of satellites, the early and the late pairs. The early pair shows ~ 2.6 mm\/year sea level rise. The late pair shows ~ 3.9 mm\/year rise. They have been improperly spliced together<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With the new claims by Josh Willis, I thought I\u2019d update that graph. Here\u2019s the 2025 version hot of the presses, using the updated version of the spreadsheet linked to just above. The bogus splice has just become more obvious.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"
Figure 6. Updated version of Figure 5, showing the trends of the records of each of the five satellite datasets.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Since 2021 they\u2019ve added another satellite, Sentinel 6MF. Both Jason 3 and Sentinel 6MF are active up until the present, so we have two overlapping records since 2021. You can see the overlap of the Jason 3 and the Sentinel data at the top right of the graph.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Obviously, the two earlier records in Figure 6 above are radically different from the succeeding three. I have no clue why. But it gets stranger. Remember that Josh Willis said that they expected a 4.3 mm\/year trend for 2024, but they found a 2024 trend of 5.9 mm\/year?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To begin with, they only expected  a 2024 trend of 4.3 mm per year because Josh Willis, as well as the Colorado researchers, think there\u2019s acceleration in the record. But the \u201cacceleration\u201d is an artifact of improper splicing. The actual individual satellite records in Figure 6 show no acceleration in either the earlier half or the later half of the time period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But the curious part is their claim that in 2024 the trend was 5.9 mm\/year, a very high rate of sea level rise \u2026 but when I investigated that, here\u2019s what I found.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"
Figure 7. Close-up of the last four years of the records shown in Figures 3, 4, and 6 above.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

I\u2019m sure you can see the oddity. Far from the sea level rise in 2024 being unusually large, according to both of the two satellites, the sea level fell<\/strong> in 2024 \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So I have no clue what Josh Willis was talking about when he was claiming that \u201cthe ocean continues to rise, and the rate of rise is getting faster and faster\u201d. <\/em>Overall, the actual tide gauges continue to show that there\u2019s no increase in the rate of rise. Absent the bogus splice, the two halves of the satellite record each say no increase in the rate of rise. And the NOAA and University of Colorado data both say sea levels fell in 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Over time, the disparity between the satellite record and the tide gauges continues to grow. The tide gauges still say the rise is around 1.8 mm per year or so. For the first two decades of the satellite records, they claimed about 2.6 mm per year, which was not too much more than tide gauges show, perhaps credible, but likely not.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since then, if we ignore the bogus splice, the last three satellites have claimed an instantaneous rise to a trend of ~ 4.0 mm per year \u2026 a rise that is totally discredited by the actual tide gauges. If the rise were that large, it would be seen in every tide gauge around the planet \u2026 but it\u2019s not seen in any of them. Here\u2019s an example:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

My theory is that for decades, they\u2019d predicted a catastrophic sea level rise as an inevitable and very damaging result of \u201cglobal warming\u201d. Here\u2019s a partial list:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2022 A 2004 Pentagon analysis warned that major European cities would be underwater by 2020 due to climate change, and that Britain would experience a \u201cSiberian\u201d climate due to the failure of the Gulf Stream<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2022 In 1988 James Hansen said that by 2028 the West Side Highway in New York would be underwater. In 2008, ABC News aired a special suggesting that New York City could be underwater by 2015 due to rising sea levels. Neither one came true.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2022 In 1988, Maldives environmental officials warned that their island nation would be completely underwater within 30 years (by 2018). The Maldives remain above water, and are building resort hotels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2022 Media reports and some scientists warned that Pacific coral atolls would be underwater before now due to sea level rise. However, the scientists forgot that Charles Darwin showed<\/a> that coral atolls are created<\/strong> by sea level rise, not destroyed by it. And studies (e.g., Webb & Kench, 2010<\/a>) have shown that ~ 80% of the atolls have experienced either a gain or no loss of land area since the 1940s despite rising sea levels.

The problem for the sea level alarmists is that, having made so many predictions of oceanic thermageddon from rising sea levels only to see them crash and burn, and now watching the climate grift slowly collapse, they have no choice other than to put their thumb on the scales. As Bill Shakescene remarked, \u201cThere is a tide in the affairs of men\u201d<\/em>, and although these good prognosticators thought the rising sea levels would \u201clead them on to destiny\u201d<\/em>, back here in the real world, they are now feeling the tide ebbing out from under their feet and getting very nervous.

There\u2019s an old lawyer\u2019s maxim that says:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cIf the facts are against you, argue the law. If the law is against you, argue the facts. If the law and the facts are against you, pound the table and yell like hell\u201d.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

I fear this is just Josh Willis pounding the table and yelling \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

TLDR Version?<\/strong> The claim of acceleration in the satellite sea level data is a false conclusion from an unjustifiable splicing process, and the claims of Josh Willis and the NASA JPL of a large sea level rise<\/strong> in 2024 are contradicted by a drop<\/strong> in the actual sea level data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Best to everyone on a sunny evening,

w.

Yeah, you\u2019ve heard it before:<\/strong> When you comment, please quote the words you\u2019re discussing. It avoids heaps of confusion.

Also: <\/strong>I\u2019m tired of the name-calling. I\u2019ll snip it without remorse.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I see that the NASA folks are busily putting the hype back into hyperventilate. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":377476,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818491,691834915,691833237,691820093],"class_list":{"0":"post-377452","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-nasa","9":"tag-nasas-jet-propulsion-laboratory-jpl","10":"tag-noaa-national-oceanic-and-atmospheric-administration","11":"tag-sea-level","13":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/0465754.jpg?fit=1920%2C1200&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1AbW","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":376840,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=376840","url_meta":{"origin":377452,"position":0},"title":"Time to Defund Climate Models?","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"30\/04\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"\u201cThe Trump administration is cutting funding for climate research across all federal departments\u2026. 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The solid horizontal line represents the linear relative\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"NASA\"","block_context":{"text":"NASA","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=nasa"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/0Extreme-Sea-Level-Rise-scaled-1.webp?fit=1200%2C836&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/0Extreme-Sea-Level-Rise-scaled-1.webp?fit=1200%2C836&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/0Extreme-Sea-Level-Rise-scaled-1.webp?fit=1200%2C836&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/0Extreme-Sea-Level-Rise-scaled-1.webp?fit=1200%2C836&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/0Extreme-Sea-Level-Rise-scaled-1.webp?fit=1200%2C836&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/377452","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=377452"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/377452\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":377478,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/377452\/revisions\/377478"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/377476"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=377452"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=377452"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=377452"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}