{"id":377297,"date":"2025-05-06T18:02:02","date_gmt":"2025-05-06T16:02:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=377297"},"modified":"2025-05-06T18:02:04","modified_gmt":"2025-05-06T16:02:04","slug":"narrative-based-evidence-making","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=377297","title":{"rendered":"Narrative Based Evidence Making`"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Opinion by Kip Hansen<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This essay was inspired by a phrase used by Ted N<\/a>o<\/a>rdhaus<\/a> ( and here<\/a> ) in his recent  piece at The Breakthrough Journal<\/a>  titled:  \u201cThe Worst Thing About the \u2018Climate Crisis\u2019 Is What It Does To Your Brain\u201d<\/a>.  Nordhaus used the phrase in this context:  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAnyone looking for academic studies, NGO, or government sources to validate these [ Climate Crisis ] claims will, of course, easily find them, such has been the scale of narrative based evidence making<\/strong> over the last several decades, underwritten by billions of dollars annually in environmental philanthropy. But that literature is shot through with dubious methods, speculative modeling, and wild projections of ostensible correlations between natural climate variations and all sorts of highly overdetermined social outcomes far into the<\/em> future<\/em> \u2026\u201d).<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Let me try to breakdown that phrase \u2013 narrative based evidence making \u2013to create a clear definition of it.<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Narrative<\/strong>:  In its simplest form, a narrative is the telling of a story<\/strong>, or the story itself. A narrative is just that, neither good nor bad, it is just a way of talking\/writing about something.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But there is another meaning of \u201cThe Narrative\u201d.  I have written about Editorial Narratives<\/a><\/em> (and here<\/a>, and by others here<\/a>):  my working definition is:  \u201cA mandated set of guidelines for the overriding storyline for any news item concerning a specified topic, including required statements, conclusions and intentional slanting towards a particular preferred viewpoint. A statement from the Editors of \u2018How this topic is to be presented.\u2019<\/em>\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Editorial Narratives are just one example.  The climate crisis news cabal running out of Columbia University, Covering Climate Now<\/a><\/em>, in conjunction with  the Columbia Journalism Review<\/a><\/em>,  The Nation<\/a><\/em> and The Guardian<\/a>, <\/em>held a conference in June of 2022 to establish a National Narrative for Climate Stories<\/strong> for all of its members news outlets. Those 2022 mandated uber-storylines looked like this:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1.  Climate is a crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2.  The Green New Deal is \u201ca plan to mobilize the United States to stave off climate disaster and, in the process, create millions of green jobs\u201d and \u201cthe GND has massive public support\u201d. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

3.  Climate is the \u201cbiggest story of our time\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

4.  Journalists should push the  \u201c\u2026warning that humanity has a mere 12 years to radically slash greenhouse-gas emissions or face a calamitous future in which hundreds of millions of people worldwide would go hungry or homeless or worse.\u201d  and that  \u201cour civilization today faces the prospect of extinction\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

You may recognize these storylines from reading your local newspaper or  watching TV news or listening to your local public news station.  It is far easier for journalists, print or radio or television, to use a pre-determined storyline than to do real original journalism, easier when told by one\u2019s editor to \u201cwrite a story about the flooding in Arkansas showing how it is an example of the Climate Crisis\u201d. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Climate is not the only topic that is subject to mandated Narratives.  One can find examples in every topic in which there is the slightest controversy when vested interests have a stake in policy decisions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The health field is a minefield of Narratives \u2013 mandated stories that medical\/health journals want to publish, which desire informs researchers what papers to write (if they wish to get published).  This often looks like \u201cfad science\u201d \u2013 research done on \u201chot topics\u201d. That\u2019s a real thing, of course, but Narratives in medicine and health are far more insidious [\u201dproceeding in a gradual, subtle way, but with harmful effects.\u201d].   One current example is \u201cPlastics are bad for health<\/a>. Plastics are everywhere<\/a>.  Plastics found in your<\/a> \u2026. \u201d. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

These Narratives have become  themselves the story<\/em>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

How does this happen? How does The Narrative become the story?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Narrative Based Evidence Making<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The editors, newspaper owners, the activists, the advocacy NGOs , federal  government agencies, Soros, Gates, Trump, Musk \u2013 anyone or any group with a bit of power or influence with the media \u2013 can create a Narrative.  (and, of course, others can equally create a Counter-Narrative).  Let\u2019s ignore all of the multitude of Political Narratives (which I find boring but some find them endlessly entertaining) and stick with  Scientific Narratives<\/em> \u2013 those that touch on and drive the \u201cdoing\u201d of science.  (Readers looking for a bit of fun can list current or past Scientific Narratives in the comments).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But just creating a Narrative does not mean it will pass the test of time or catch the its field-wide or public  imagination.  In order to get a Narrative to grow and gain power over the minds of funding agencies, journals, and the general public, it is necessary to engage in Narrative Based Evidence Making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This process is accomplished in science in a similar way it is accomplished in journalism.  One starts with<\/em> the Narrative.  Let\u2019s use \u201cPlastics are bad<\/em>.\u201d  Then one can cast about in one\u2019s lab and say to oneself:  How can I show that \u201cplastics are bad\u201d with my current research?  The current science fad is to \u201cfind\u201d microplastics in any- and everything (really, they look for and claim to find nanoplastics<\/a> \u2013 \u201csynthetic polymers with dimensions ranging from 1 nm to 1 \u03bcm  or a single micron<\/em>\u201d).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There are so many sub-Narratives to \u201cplastics are bad\u201d that almost any research that touches on the topic of plastics can readily be transformed, following by the Narrative, into \u201cnarrative based evidence<\/strong>\u201d that \u201cplastics are bad\u201d, especially now that there are so many other papers containing narrative based evidence of the \u2018fact\u2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

You see, the Narrative comes first.  Then one creates some evidence to support the Narrative.   Epidemiology<\/a> is one medical field that is most prone to Narrative Based Evidence Making \u2013 and the \u201cplastics\u201d examples are rife, the most recent being \u201cHeart disease deaths worldwide linked to chemical widely used in plastics<\/a>\u201d.  I won\u2019t bother to rip that paper to shreds \u2013 it is worthless, in my opinion, except as an example for this essay.  For more on the ills of epidemiology read or watch Matt Briggs\u2019<\/a> series: \u201cThe Excesses & Errors Of Epidemiology\u201d \u2013 I<\/a>, II<\/a>, and III<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Of course, in CliSci (Climate Science ), the vast majority of the \u201cnews worthy\u201d science is just this:  the result of Narrative Based Evidence Making<\/em>.  Think:  World Weather <\/a>Attribution<\/a>, an organization created for the sole purpose of Evidence Making (in support of the Climate Crisis Narratives). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Don\u2019t mistake the usual process of \u201cevidence finding<\/em>\u201d with the process of \u201cevidence making<\/em>\u201d.  They are two quite different activities. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Normal science goes (in an extremely simplified way):<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  1. Make an observation \u2013 see some evidence of something.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. Ask a pertinent question.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  3. Form a\u00a0hypothesis<\/strong>, or testable explanation.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  4. Make a prediction based on the hypothesis.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  5. Test the prediction (or by designing experiments or observations to potentially demonstrate that a hypothesis is false \u2013 following Hopper.).<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  6. Iterate: use the results to make new hypotheses or predictions.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    Narrative Based Evidence Making<\/strong> goes more like this:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \n
    1. Having been handed a clear mandated Narrative: \u201cX must cause Y\u201d (\u201cGiven that Climate Change Could Cause Floods\u00a0it follows that<\/em>\u00a0All Floods Have Been Caused by Climate Change\u201d)<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    2. Ask the question, \u201cWhat evidence can I find\/make that will\u00a0support<\/em><\/strong>\u00a0the Narrative?\u201d<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    3. Create through modelling and statistics, using existing data bases (cherry picked if necessary) or developing purpose-built data bases, evidence that seems to support the Narrative.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    4. Publish a paper that\u00a0asserts<\/a><\/strong>\u00a0[ \u201cto state (something) in a strong and definite way\u201d \u00a0] that your Evidence \u201cproves\u201d the Narrative.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    5. Repeat.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

      How many times have you read or heard \u201cWarmer air can hold more moisture\/water\u201d (which is true) used as evidence<\/strong><\/em> that some heavy rain event was caused by <\/em><\/strong>climate change induced warming? <\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Narrative Based Evidence Making often depends on true \u201cfactoids\u201d such as that to create so-called evidence for broader, often untrue or wildly exaggerated, Narratives. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Bottom Lines:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      1.  In many scientific fields today, Narrative Based Evidence Making<\/em> has become the norm, filling scientific journals with papers presenting evidence in support of some mandated and\/or preferred larger Narrative.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      2.  Narrative Based Evidence Making is a pernicious and pervasive perversion of Science \u2013 and should be called out at every opportunity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      3.  Sometimes, it can be tricky and harder to detect. Your Critical Thinking Skills knob must be turned to Full On<\/em> in self-protection.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      4.  Scientists and Researchers must be especially careful not to get caught up in this tempting trap: If I can show evidence supporting \u201cNarrative X<\/em>\u201d, my paper will find easy publication in a good journal, and my funding will increase.  The alternative being that if I present  evidence that refutes a mandated or popular Narrative, it will end up in the file drawer and my funding will dry up.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

      # # # # #<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Author\u2019s Comment:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      I recommend reading Nordhaus\u2019 Breakthrough piece<\/a>.  You will not agree with some of his assumptions about climate, but his read on the science behind the Climate Crisis is terrific.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Narrative Based Evidence Making<\/em> is so ubiquitous that is has become to be the [almost] accepted mode of doing science.  There is a lot of follow-on band-wagoning<\/a> that takes place once momentum builds behind some Narrative.  Not all Narratives are publicly obvious \u2013 some are created and promulgated far behind the scenes for reasons and purposes not in the public interest. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

      I\u2019d like to read your examples in the comments \u2013 either generally or links to specific papers as examples.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      If your comment is direct to me for reply, please begin with \u201cKip \u2013\u201c.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Thanks for reading.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      # # # # #<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      Narrative:\u00a0 In its simplest form, a narrative is\u00a0the telling of a story, or the story itself. A narrative is just that, neither good nor bad, it is just a way of talking\/writing about something.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":377301,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818056,691818102,691818849,691834611,691834889],"class_list":["post-377297","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-climate-change","tag-climate-crisis","tag-green-new-deal","tag-ngos-nongovernmental-organizations","tag-scientists-and-researchers","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/5f3c4f30cb34dc2ac325aab70c566517.jpeg?fit=1456%2C816&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1A9r","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":294554,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=294554","url_meta":{"origin":377297,"position":0},"title":"Dr. Matthew Wielicki: I Refuse to Stay Silent about Climate Change","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"01\/11\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Dr. Wielicki shares his story and encourages the next generation to reject the doomsday narrative and maintain hope for the future.","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0Screenshot-2024-01-11-131808.png?fit=1174%2C656&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0Screenshot-2024-01-11-131808.png?fit=1174%2C656&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0Screenshot-2024-01-11-131808.png?fit=1174%2C656&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0Screenshot-2024-01-11-131808.png?fit=1174%2C656&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0Screenshot-2024-01-11-131808.png?fit=1174%2C656&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":282057,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=282057","url_meta":{"origin":377297,"position":1},"title":"What Will it Take to Destroy the Climate Narrative? – In The Tank\u00a0#418","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/05\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Stopping Socialism TV with Justin and Donald The Heartland Institute's Donald Kendal, Jim Lakely, Chris Talgo are joined by Linnea Lueken for episode 418 of the In The Tank Podcast. 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