{"id":376624,"date":"2025-04-27T17:24:56","date_gmt":"2025-04-27T15:24:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=376624"},"modified":"2025-04-27T17:24:58","modified_gmt":"2025-04-27T15:24:58","slug":"early-atlantic-hurricane-season-predictions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=376624","title":{"rendered":"Early Atlantic Hurricane Season Predictions"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

News Note by\u00a0Kip Hansen<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The early predictions for this coming 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season have come out. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

From the group at CSU<\/a>, we have this:<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

\u201cSummary<\/a><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

We anticipate that the 2025 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have above-normal activity<\/strong>. Current La Ni\u00f1a conditions are likely to transition to ENSO neutral conditions in the next couple of months; however, there remains considerable uncertainty as to what the phase of ENSO will be this summer and fall. Sea surface temperatures across the eastern and central Atlantic are generally warmer than normal, but not as warm as they were last year at this time. A warmer-than-normal tropical Atlantic combined with likely ENSO neutral (or potential La Ni\u00f1a) conditions typically provides a more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification. We anticipate an above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean.<\/strong> As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season. Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

As usual, the CSU Tropical Cyclones, Radar, Atmospheric Modeling, and Software Team (TC-RAMS), t<\/strong>he team built by the late-great Bill Gray<\/a>, provides their reasoning and basis of their predictions below the summary on the page linked above.   <\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is additional data, including deeper historic data, in a StoryMap description of their forecast here: StoryMap<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

[What\u2019s a StoryMap?  See here<\/a>.]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Important for hurricane season prediction is the state of El Ni\u00f1o\/La Ni\u00f1a \u2013 here are the model predictions, provided by Columbia University\u2019s International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI)<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

[Author\u2019s Note:  Predicting ENSO requires models to use non-linear equations, multiple times, in models, which guarantees chaotic results (chaotic as in Chaos studies<\/a>). What we see above are the results of using the more-or-less the same input data, observations, fed into non-linear models, producing a wide spread of essentially chaotic results, which are then interpreted (the heavy red and green lines) by averaging those results, which by the end of Oct-Nov-Dec 2025,  are spread almost exactly evenly above and below zero.  They call result \u201cENSO Neutral\u201d]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From CSU\u2019s StoryMap<\/a>:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

 \u201cPROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS:<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
    \n
  1. Entire continental U.S. coastline \u2013 51% (average from 1880\u20132020 is 43%)<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. U.S. East Coast Including Florida Peninsula (south and east of Cedar Key, Florida) \u2013 26% (average from 1880\u20132020 is 21%)<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  3. Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle (west and north of Cedar Key, Florida) westward to Brownsville \u2013 33% (average from 1880\u20132020 is 27%)\u201d<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    Other predictions:<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

    Atmospheric G2 and The Weather Company have thei<\/a>r own forecast<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n

    \n
    \"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

    But where do those landfalling hurricanes strike?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

    Here\u2019s two interesting graphics I stumbled across, showing every U.S. \u00a0landfalling hurricane ever recorded, produced by Michael Ferragamo [\u00a0story here<\/a>\u00a0with the original images].<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    And just the US portion:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    There are some interesting blank spots along the Mid-Atlantic Coast including almost all of Virginia, Maryland and Delaware.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    And the mainstream media?  What is their response to this rather mundane news?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Here\u2019s the headlines folks:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Yale Climate Connections<\/a>:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u201cForecasters predict another active 2025 Atlantic hurricane season<\/strong> \u2014 Colorado State University\u2019s hurricane forecasting team is calling for yet another unusually active season with 17 named storms, nine hurricanes, and four major hurricanes.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    MSN:<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Forecasters Warn of Rough 2025 Hurricane Season: \u2018Start Preparing Now\u2019<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The Cool Down<\/a>:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Meteorologists share grim forecasts ahead of 2025 hurricane season: \u2018Everyone needs to start planning and preparing\u2019<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Yahoo! News<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Scientists sound the alarm over the looming 2025 hurricane season: \u2018An above-average probability\u2019<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The Weather Channel<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    First Major 2025 Hurricane Season Outlook Released: Slightly Above Average Activity Expected<\/strong> The team at Colorado State University said the season will be somewhat more busy than average due to the lack of El Ni\u00f1o.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Only the Weather Channel <\/a> makes an attempt to simply deliver the news.  CSU expects the 2025 season to be a tad more busy than \u201caverage\u201d, but less active than 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    And that\u2019s the news\u2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    # # # # #<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Author\u2019s Comment:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    It is not unexpected to see even these very early hurricane season predictions leading to a bit of overblown alarm in the press.  I suspect it would be the same regardless of the prediction \u2013 even \u201cbelow average\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    It is de rigueur <\/em>for all the media reports about hurricanes to point out that no matter what the prediction, your area being hit by a hurricane is a big deal, dangerous, and all should be prepared.  When we were living on our boat in hurricane country, we were always ready to run to a nearby hurricane hole <\/a> where we could tough it out in relative<\/em> safety.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The maps supplied by Michael Ferragamo are fascinating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Thanks for reading.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    # # # # #<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    It is not unexpected to see even these very early hurricane season predictions leading to a bit of overblown alarm in the press.\u00a0 I suspect it would be the same regardless of the prediction \u2013 even \u201cbelow average\u201d.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":376636,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691834385,691834752,691818825,691833580],"class_list":["post-376624","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-2025-hurricane-season","tag-chaos-studies","tag-la-nina-2","tag-model-predictions","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/0hurricaneseasongulfshores-ca7533cf-1920w.webp?fit=1920%2C1262&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1zYA","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":446161,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=446161","url_meta":{"origin":376624,"position":0},"title":"GOOD NEWS: NOAA predicts a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/23\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"NOAA released its official 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook on May 21, 2026, and it does call for a below-normal season.","rel":"","context":"In \"2026 Atlantic hurricane season\"","block_context":{"text":"2026 Atlantic hurricane season","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=2026-atlantic-hurricane-season"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-GOOD-NEWS-NOAA-predicts-a-below-normal-2026-Atlantic-hurricane-season.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-GOOD-NEWS-NOAA-predicts-a-below-normal-2026-Atlantic-hurricane-season.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-GOOD-NEWS-NOAA-predicts-a-below-normal-2026-Atlantic-hurricane-season.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-GOOD-NEWS-NOAA-predicts-a-below-normal-2026-Atlantic-hurricane-season.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-GOOD-NEWS-NOAA-predicts-a-below-normal-2026-Atlantic-hurricane-season.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":259473,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=259473","url_meta":{"origin":376624,"position":1},"title":"NOAA predicts a near-normal 2023 Atlantic hurricane season","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/28\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Hurricanes are only neat and exciting when they are happening someplace else to someone else.\u00a0 Up close, they are dangerous even for those well prepared.","rel":"","context":"In \"Hurricanes\"","block_context":{"text":"Hurricanes","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=hurricanes"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0Hurricane-4.jpeg?fit=1200%2C745&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0Hurricane-4.jpeg?fit=1200%2C745&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0Hurricane-4.jpeg?fit=1200%2C745&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0Hurricane-4.jpeg?fit=1200%2C745&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0Hurricane-4.jpeg?fit=1200%2C745&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":444596,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=444596","url_meta":{"origin":376624,"position":2},"title":"Scorecard: How Well Does NOAA\u2019s Hurricane Outlook Actually Perform? 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Every year, they seem to be eagerly awaiting devastating superstorms to prove them right. And the 2025 hurricane season looked ripe.","rel":"","context":"In \"climate agenda\"","block_context":{"text":"climate agenda","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-agenda"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/AQMXW0YglThsv7wV0_x8YBGe-KTMFXEZbLx55uX4giqPVsYBbjJrphvPDnIMfFejK-VgpspcFPYVP9-NVc9xCrw-NEZkd5R_tzC5UqJRW_RCsmQTqYPToAqUomZS_iTMgWPXHP33TOy56xLLQkrCLyLQjVaHQw.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/AQMXW0YglThsv7wV0_x8YBGe-KTMFXEZbLx55uX4giqPVsYBbjJrphvPDnIMfFejK-VgpspcFPYVP9-NVc9xCrw-NEZkd5R_tzC5UqJRW_RCsmQTqYPToAqUomZS_iTMgWPXHP33TOy56xLLQkrCLyLQjVaHQw.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/AQMXW0YglThsv7wV0_x8YBGe-KTMFXEZbLx55uX4giqPVsYBbjJrphvPDnIMfFejK-VgpspcFPYVP9-NVc9xCrw-NEZkd5R_tzC5UqJRW_RCsmQTqYPToAqUomZS_iTMgWPXHP33TOy56xLLQkrCLyLQjVaHQw.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/AQMXW0YglThsv7wV0_x8YBGe-KTMFXEZbLx55uX4giqPVsYBbjJrphvPDnIMfFejK-VgpspcFPYVP9-NVc9xCrw-NEZkd5R_tzC5UqJRW_RCsmQTqYPToAqUomZS_iTMgWPXHP33TOy56xLLQkrCLyLQjVaHQw.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/AQMXW0YglThsv7wV0_x8YBGe-KTMFXEZbLx55uX4giqPVsYBbjJrphvPDnIMfFejK-VgpspcFPYVP9-NVc9xCrw-NEZkd5R_tzC5UqJRW_RCsmQTqYPToAqUomZS_iTMgWPXHP33TOy56xLLQkrCLyLQjVaHQw.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/376624","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=376624"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/376624\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":376641,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/376624\/revisions\/376641"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/376636"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=376624"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=376624"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=376624"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}