{"id":374844,"date":"2025-04-12T10:35:04","date_gmt":"2025-04-12T08:35:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=374844"},"modified":"2025-04-12T10:35:06","modified_gmt":"2025-04-12T08:35:06","slug":"whose-co%e2%82%82-is-it-anyway-ocean-fizz-or-smokestack-blame","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=374844","title":{"rendered":"Whose CO\u2082 is it Anyway? Ocean Fizz or Smokestack Blame"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Jennifer Marohasy<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By\u00a0jennifer<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Picture this: it\u2019s a hot day, and you grab a soda can that\u2019s been in the sun. You crack it open\u2014psssht\u2014and CO\u2082 fizzes out, tickling your nose, maybe spraying your shirt if you\u2019re slow. It\u2019s a tiny chaos, a burst you can\u2019t control. Now imagine that fizz across the ocean\u2019s sun-warmed surface, covering 71% of Earth, bubbling CO\u2082 into the air we breathe. Wild, right? A bit mad. I reckon it\u2019s a missing piece of the climate puzzle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The IPCC pins it all on smokestacks\u201411 billion tonnes of carbon a year from fossil fuels. Even skeptics like the CO\u2082 Coalition echo this, leaning on guys like Ferdinand Engelbeen who do their maths by the consensus numbers<\/a> on this issue of CO\u2082 origins.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But they might have it all back to front and be leaving out ocean chemistry and biology. In fact, I\u2019m convinced they are.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Keeling Curve\u2014CO\u2082\u2019s climb from 280 to 420 ppm\u2014carries their blame. But what if the ocean\u2019s fizzing more than they think? Their rock-solid evidence could be mostly myth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

I\u2019ve been digging into this with Ivan Kennedy, my second guest for the webinar series \u2018Towards a New Theory of Climate Resilience\u2019. That was back in February and I\u2019m still to process the audio from this discussion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Instead, my focus has been on writing technical papers. Ivan and I are working through a hypothesis that could perhaps flip the climate script.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Engelbeen claims fossil fuels\u2019 isotopic fingerprint\u2014light \u00b9\u00b2C (isotope C12) dragging the air\u2019s \u00b9\u00b3C-to-\u00b9\u00b2C ratio from -6.5\u2030 (per mille)* to -8.5\u2030 since 1850\u2014is proof of coal and oil\u2019s guilt. Ocean CO\u2082, averaging 0\u2030 from deep waters, should nudge it up\u2014not down. Case closed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Except. That \u00b9\u00b2C\/\u00b9\u00b3C tale\u2019s shakier than they admit. What if the ocean\u2019s surface, warmed by the sun, fizzes CO\u2082 richer in \u00b9\u00b2C than the deep oceans 0\u2030?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Calcification\u2014limestone forming in seawater\u2014might churn out CO\u2082 at -10\u2030 or lower, diluting that delta 13 signal just like fossil fuels. It\u2019s not the deep ocean I\u2019m on about\u2014it\u2019s the top 65 meters, the mixed layer, where sunlight and warmth cause biological action. So much action that it has built the biosphere\u2019s great carbonate deposits, even the White Cliffs of Dover.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ivan and I talked some of this over\u2014Great Barrier Reef, North Pacific\u2014during our webinar (soon my first podcast\u2014thanks for waiting!). Calcification\u2019s no sleepy trick; it\u2019s a biological buzzsaw\u2014corals, algae, phytoplankton like coccolithophores churning limestone. In summer blooms, they might pump out tonnes of CO\u2082, light on \u00b9\u00b3C. Our Thermal Acid Calcification (TAC) hypothesis says nature\u2019s pitching in more than you might think.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ponder this next time you sip a soda: could the ocean be bubbling up a CO\u2082 twist?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

TAC\u2019s perhaps a second plank in my New Theory of Climate Resilience.\u00a0Subscribe<\/a>\u00a0for irregular updates, and to know about next webinars.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
In churn and current, me with that silver scuba air tank at the surface above the mixing layer at the Great Barrier Reef. And the top\/feature image is of my scuba buddies diving off the edge from Myrmidon Reef that is already at the edge, photographed by underwater photographer, scuba buddy and boat skipper Jenn Mayes.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

This is Part 2 of How Climate Works. Part 1 was with Bill Kininmonth. I never properly processed the audio from Part 1, and I accepted\u00a0the AI summary of our meeting click here<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
From a paper by Werner Berner et al. 1980. In Radiocarbon, Vol 22, No.2. pgs. 227-235. Suggesting higher carbon dioxide levels just a few thousand years ago.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

************
When we say deep ocean carbon is 0\u2030 (per mille), we\u2019re talking about its carbon isotope ratio, specifically the \u03b4\u00b9\u00b3C value. This is a measure of how much carbon-13 (\u00b9\u00b3C) is present relative to carbon-12 (\u00b9\u00b2C), compared to a standard reference.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In this case, 0\u2030 doesn\u2019t mean there\u2019s no carbon-13 in the deep ocean\u2014it means the ratio of \u00b9\u00b3C to \u00b9\u00b2C in deep ocean dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) is about the same as the standard reference, which is usually the Vienna Pee Dee Belemnite (VPDB). A \u03b4\u00b9\u00b3C of 0\u2030 indicates no enrichment or depletion of \u00b9\u00b3C relative to that standard.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now, why is deep ocean carbon around 0\u2030? It\u2019s because the deep ocean is a massive, well-mixed reservoir of carbon that\u2019s been cycled through various processes over long timescales. Surface ocean carbon starts with a \u03b4\u00b9\u00b3C of about +1 to +2\u2030 due to photosynthesis, where phytoplankton preferentially take up \u00b9\u00b2C, leaving the surface water slightly enriched in \u00b9\u00b3C. But as organic matter sinks and decays, it releases carbon back into the deep ocean. This process, along with the mixing of water masses, balances out the isotopic signature. The deep ocean ends up with a \u03b4\u00b9\u00b3C close to 0\u2030 because it reflects a long-term average of all these inputs\u2014biological, physical, and chemical\u2014without much net fractionation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In terms of carbon-13, this means the deep ocean has a pretty stable and \u201cneutral\u201d amount of \u00b9\u00b3C compared to the global carbon cycle. It\u2019s not heavily skewed like surface waters or organic matter (which can be -20\u2030 or lower due to that photosynthetic preference for \u00b9\u00b2C). So, a \u03b4\u00b9\u00b3C of 0\u2030 tells us the deep ocean is kind of a baseline, a big pool where carbon isotopes have settled into equilibrium over thousands of years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Picture this: it\u2019s a hot day, and you grab a soda can that\u2019s been in the sun. You crack it open\u2014psssht\u2014and CO\u2082 fizzes out, tickling your nose, maybe spraying your shirt if you\u2019re slow. It\u2019s a tiny chaos, a burst you can\u2019t control. Now imagine that fizz across the ocean\u2019s sun-warmed surface, covering 71% of Earth, bubbling CO\u2082 into the air we breathe. Wild, right? A bit mad. I reckon it\u2019s a missing piece of the climate puzzle.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":374845,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691819835,691829997,691834414,691826643,691824914],"class_list":{"0":"post-374844","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-carbon-cycle","9":"tag-carbon-dioxide-co","10":"tag-carbon-isotope","11":"tag-deep-ocean","12":"tag-ocean-acidification","14":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/0bubbles-Myrmidon.jpg?fit=2048%2C1365&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1zvS","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":374971,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=374971","url_meta":{"origin":374844,"position":0},"title":"Ocean CO2 Outgassing With Temperature","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"13\/04\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Over at Dr. Jennifer Marohasy\u2019s always interesting blog, she makes an interesting\u00a0claim\u00a0about ocean outgassing of CO2.","rel":"","context":"In \"carbon dioxide (CO\u2082)\"","block_context":{"text":"carbon dioxide (CO\u2082)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=carbon-dioxide-co%e2%82%82"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/0175377.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/0175377.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/0175377.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/0175377.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, 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https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/image-500.png?fit=1024%2C512&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/image-500.png?fit=1024%2C512&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":419425,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=419425","url_meta":{"origin":374844,"position":2},"title":"Slam Dunk: \u0394temp Drives \u0394co2, Ocean Biochemistry at\u00a0Work","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"02\/01\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"The phrase \"Slam Dunk: \u0394temp Drives \u0394co2, Ocean Biochemistry at Work\" appears to refer to the argument that changes in temperature (\u0394temp) primarily drive changes in atmospheric CO\u2082 levels (\u0394CO\u2082), with ocean biochemistry and physics playing a key role\u2014specifically through reduced CO\u2082 solubility in warmer seawater, leading to outgassing.","rel":"","context":"In \"carbon dioxide 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(about 17,000 gallons) of sodium hydroxide (NaOH, a strong alkaline substance, often called caustic soda or lye) into the Gulf of Maine over an area of roughly 1 km\u00b2. They also added a smaller\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"carbon dioxide (CO\u2082)\"","block_context":{"text":"carbon dioxide (CO\u2082)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=carbon-dioxide-co%e2%82%82"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/0-Ocean-Really.jpg?fit=784%2C1168&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/0-Ocean-Really.jpg?fit=784%2C1168&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/0-Ocean-Really.jpg?fit=784%2C1168&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/0-Ocean-Really.jpg?fit=784%2C1168&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":360805,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=360805","url_meta":{"origin":374844,"position":5},"title":"Unsettled Science: How Sun\u2019s Fluxes Affect Our\u00a0Climate","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"07\/01\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"NASA\u2019s Parker solar probe just completed\u00a0one of its primary multi-year mission objectives, with\u00a0the closest ever approach to the Sun. 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