{"id":374223,"date":"2025-04-08T08:09:24","date_gmt":"2025-04-08T06:09:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=374223"},"modified":"2025-04-08T08:09:26","modified_gmt":"2025-04-08T06:09:26","slug":"factoring-in-water-vapor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=374223","title":{"rendered":"Factoring in water vapor"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From CFACT<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Joe Bastardi<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Of course, if you are the opposite, you might believe this:<\/p>\n\n\n

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\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Shock! It comes from The Atlantic<\/em>. What they love to do is get snippets of the truth, then refuse to show the whole picture.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And while this does not apply to you, dear reader, you can\u2019t fix stupid when there is a good dose of dogma driving it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Climate models struggle to accurately predict climate patterns because they are primarily designed to detect warming trends. As I\u2019ll demonstrate in a future blog post, these models are ill-equipped to anticipate cooling periods. When faced with a potential cold spell, they simply adjust their feedback mechanisms, reset to a new warm baseline, and continue projecting upward temperature trends. This limitation stems from their inadequate representation of oceanic heat dynamics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In reality,  climate models can\u2019t keep up with what is happening in a precise way because temperatures are a 3rd derivative metric.  Wet bulb temperatures are much better, and saturation mixing ratios quantify much better what we should be looking at. Fat chance we would measure that, because it would become apparent CO2 has little if anything to do with the climate. The focus on temperature as the primary indicator of climate\u2014and the associated narrative of impending climate catastrophe pushed by certain agendas\u2014is misguided. This narrative seems to serve those with no productive purpose, who seek to impose top-down control or harbor a messianic complex craving for worship and power, sustained by years of relentless propaganda. Water vapor, in fact, accounts for nearly all of the observed phenomena.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The reluctance to deploy extensive, deep-reaching data collection devices across the oceans\u2014where the heat originates\u2014is telling. Current efforts, like buoys placed down to 6,000 feet every 100,000 square miles, are woefully insufficient given the oceans\u2019 critical role. This resistance resembles a religious stance: unquestioning and dismissive of challenges. Much like debating an evolutionist who might argue that a slow progression from monkey to man implies a flawed or nonexistent deity, the climate modeling community often sidesteps evidence that could expand their understanding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The relationship between water vapor and temperature offers a factor that contributes to what we observe.<\/p>\n\n\n

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\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Of course it does not take Nobel Prizes or PHDs, real or not, to see that relationship, which would be scary to anyone relying on some great mystery to continue their missive.  In fact, someone who got a D in geology can see this, though it likely would mean his reason to fly around in CO2 spewing private jets would be done.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As I\u2019ve highlighted in at least 20 prior blog posts, water vapor strongly correlates with significant temperature increases, particularly in the coldest, driest regions. For instance, an increase of just 0.1 gram\/kg of water vapor at -40\u00b0F can lead to a 10-degree temperature rise. This occurs because, in areas with minimal energy, even a small input can produce a large temperature shift\u2014temperature being a measure of energy. In contrast, the same energy input in a hot, energy-rich environment barely registers. This dynamic elegantly explains why current warming patterns resemble those of the Medieval Warm Period.<\/p>\n\n\n

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\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n
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\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Just look at Arctic temperatures. Almost all warming is in the coldest time of the year, when water vapor increase would have its greatest impact. It\u2019s still frigid, just well above normal. And at the time of the year it is warmest (temperatures average about 33), there is no warming.\u00a0 While you may not get as much ice increase in the winter, you don\u2019t have more melting in the summer.<\/p>\n\n\n

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\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

The temperature spike over the past two years can be readily attributed to a powerful Warm ENSO (El Ni\u00f1o-Southern Oscillation) event, known to cause abrupt increases, combined with the significant water vapor injected into the atmosphere by the Tonga eruption. Earlier temperature jumps can similarly be understood as the result of accumulated oceanic heat, which is then released during intense El Ni\u00f1o events. These events are triggered as a response to imbalances driven by ongoing ocean warming. By looking at Dr. Roy Spencer\u2019s chart, I have added. (Note: I do not know if Dr. Roy agrees, and I know he does not agree with my idea that since geothermal spreading started in the late 1980s, this might be a possible explanation for cumulative build up and the strong Ni\u00f1o response and corresponding rise.\u00a0 I am a big fan of Dr. Roy and understand his skepticism. So the chart is simply me pointing out these step ups.)<\/p>\n\n\n

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\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

1 is the 97-98 Super Ni\u00f1o<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2 is the 15-16 Super Ni\u00f1o<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3 is the recent double shot of water vapor love, the strong El Ni\u00f1o with Tonga<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The fact that the oceans from the decade of the 1950s to the 1980s while spreading around were still overall cold in different areas were still overall cold, should be enough to raise one\u2019s curiosity about what could have happened from the late 1980s on. I have discussed that many times, so I won\u2019t here. Suffice it to say the impact of CO2 on ocean warming, given the known saturation of the so-called feedback bands from 1951 on, and then the step-ups that started occurring almost 40 years later when geothermal appeared on the scene.<\/p>\n\n\n

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\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n
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\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Steady state rise of CO2, but the oceans were still cool all those years.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Again, for kicks and giggles, the geothermal input that preceded the rise, also a hint of causation.<\/p>\n\n\n

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\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

You don\u2019t have to believe this; I have found that many do not. Fine. We will get our test if we see the geothermal drops off and then the oceans follow.  There is likely to be other natural forcing and simply cyclical intersection of what could be multi-decade, century, etc.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

BUT IT\u2019S NOT CO2, but rather water vapor that is put into the air that may be the larger driver.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If you genuinely believe that CO2 is the primary driver of current warming or could somehow overshadow natural forces, you might fit into that group I mentioned earlier\u2014those with no real purpose, no way to earn a living, or an urge to impose control from above. Or, as I\u2019m starting to suspect, maybe it\u2019s some messianic complex craving for worship and power, fueled by years of relentless propaganda. It\u2019s not like we haven\u2019t seen that before in the course of human history.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For a couple of years, I\u2019ve been tossing around a hypothesis that\u2019s finally nearing a test phase. There are signs that geothermal activity might be tapering off. But here\u2019s the kicker: The data is so delayed it\u2019s ridiculous\u2014I\u2019ve got to wait four months just to see 2024\u2019s numbers. It\u2019s almost like it\u2019s intentional. This could explain why the oceans are heating up, yet we\u2019re stuck twiddling our thumbs. Regardless of what you think about that, the notion that climate models can nail down warming predictions without accounting for natural water vapor inputs is laughable. The recent warming spike proves CO2 isn\u2019t the culprit\u2014it obliterates that theory entirely. The surge happened right alongside a massive water vapor injection from the Tonga eruption and a strong El Ni\u00f1o.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Water vapor is an important driver of temperature. The ocean is pumping out that water vapor. Figure out what\u2019s heating the ocean\u2014and no, you don\u2019t have to take my word for it, the latest data shows the impact of CO2 has been exaggerated.  You have your answer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, adapt and move forward. Which I am sure CFACT readers think is a good idea.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Climate models struggle to accurately predict climate patterns because they are primarily designed to detect warming trends. As I\u2019ll demonstrate in a future blog post, these models are ill-equipped to anticipate cooling periods. When faced with a potential cold spell, they simply adjust their feedback mechanisms, reset to a new warm baseline, and continue projecting upward temperature trends. This limitation stems from their inadequate representation of oceanic heat dynamics.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":374250,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691829426,691829997,691818153,691834338,691818087,691829417,691819657],"class_list":{"0":"post-374223","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-arctic-temperatures","9":"tag-carbon-dioxide-co","10":"tag-climate-models","11":"tag-enso-el-nino-southern-oscillation","12":"tag-global-warming","13":"tag-the-atlantic","14":"tag-water-vapor","16":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/0Clouds-Blue-Sky.jpg?fit=2508%2C1672&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1zlR","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":367538,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=367538","url_meta":{"origin":374223,"position":0},"title":"New Study: Ocean Warming Is Supposed to Increase Water Vapor \u2013 But It\u2019s Been Declining Since 2008","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"25\/02\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"\u201cOur findings are unexpected: despite rising sea surface temperatures, global Eo [ocean evaporation\/water vapor] has decreased in the most recent decade.\u201d \u2013 Ma et al., 2025","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate models\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate models","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-models"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0process-water-vapour-atmosphere-video.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0process-water-vapour-atmosphere-video.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0process-water-vapour-atmosphere-video.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0process-water-vapour-atmosphere-video.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0process-water-vapour-atmosphere-video.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":421404,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=421404","url_meta":{"origin":374223,"position":1},"title":"Tropical Tropospheric Temperature Trends, 1979-2025: The Epic Climate Model Failure Continues","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"15\/01\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"As a follow-on to my\u00a0recent post\u00a0regarding global surface air temperature trends (1979-2025) and how they compare to climate models, this is an update on a similar comparison for tropical tropospheric temperature trends, courtesy of tabulations made by John Christy. It also represents an update to my popular\u00a0\u201cepic fail\u201d blog post\u00a0from\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG)\"","block_context":{"text":"anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=anthropogenic-greenhouse-gas-ghg"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/0Screenshot-2026-01-15-101000.png?fit=1200%2C602&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/0Screenshot-2026-01-15-101000.png?fit=1200%2C602&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/0Screenshot-2026-01-15-101000.png?fit=1200%2C602&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/0Screenshot-2026-01-15-101000.png?fit=1200%2C602&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/0Screenshot-2026-01-15-101000.png?fit=1200%2C602&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":303584,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=303584","url_meta":{"origin":374223,"position":2},"title":"New Study: Climate Models Get Water Vapor Wildly Wrong \u2013 A \u2018Major Gap In Our Understanding","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"20\/02\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"\u201cHere, we have demonstrated a major discrepancy between observation-based and climate model-based historical trends in near-surface atmospheric water vapor in arid and semi-ari regions.\u201d \u2013 Simpson et al., 2024","rel":"","context":"In \"climate modeling failure\"","block_context":{"text":"climate modeling failure","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-modeling-failure"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/15628779830_875c4f3759_k-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C636&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/15628779830_875c4f3759_k-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C636&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/15628779830_875c4f3759_k-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C636&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/15628779830_875c4f3759_k-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C636&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/15628779830_875c4f3759_k-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C636&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":367691,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=367691","url_meta":{"origin":374223,"position":3},"title":"New Study Reveals Unexpected Decline in Ocean Evaporation Amid Rising Sea Temperatures","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"26\/02\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"A recent study published in\u00a0Geophysical Research Letters, has turned up a surprising result: global ocean evaporation, a cornerstone of the hydrological cycle, has been declining since the late 2000s despite steadily warming sea surfaces. 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For wet-bulb temperatures and saturation mixing ratios would point the finger for\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate models\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate models","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-models"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/0Jack-Russell-Terrier-umbrella-beach.png?fit=1200%2C746&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/0Jack-Russell-Terrier-umbrella-beach.png?fit=1200%2C746&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/0Jack-Russell-Terrier-umbrella-beach.png?fit=1200%2C746&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/0Jack-Russell-Terrier-umbrella-beach.png?fit=1200%2C746&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/0Jack-Russell-Terrier-umbrella-beach.png?fit=1200%2C746&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/374223","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=374223"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/374223\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":374252,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/374223\/revisions\/374252"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/374250"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=374223"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=374223"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=374223"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}