{"id":373886,"date":"2025-04-06T11:47:24","date_gmt":"2025-04-06T09:47:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=373886"},"modified":"2025-04-06T11:47:26","modified_gmt":"2025-04-06T09:47:26","slug":"of-emissions-and-co2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=373886","title":{"rendered":"Of Emissions and CO2"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Guest Post by<\/strong> Willis Eschenbach<\/a> \u00a0(still banned from X aka Twitter, see\u00a0here<\/a>)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The most excellent reef and ocean scientist Jennifer Marohasy put up a Facebook post recently on the lack of much effect on the atmosphere CO2<\/sub>\u00a0levels from the 2020 emissions drop due to COVID. She says this shows human CO2<\/sub>\u00a0emissions have very little effect on atmospheric CO2<\/sub>\u00a0levels. However, I fear her graph is greatly misleading.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

The problem is that she is showing the full range of two related but very different variables. Let me see if I can clear up the confusion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To begin with, we need to change the CO2<\/sub> emissions to parts per million by volume (ppmv) of CO2<\/sub>. To do that, we need to divide the gigatonnage (billions of tonnes) of CO2<\/sub> by 7.81 gigatonnes of CO2<\/sub> emissions per each 1 ppmv increase.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Next, we need to account for the fact that the earth is constantly absorbing and sequestering CO2<\/sub>. I find there\u2019s an excellent fit to be had by using the following procedure. The underlying assumption is that every year, a certain small percentage of \u201cexcess\u201d airborne CO2<\/sub> is being sequestered by natural processes, with the rest of prior emissions remaining in the air. What is \u201cexcess CO2<\/sub>\u201c? Well, it is the amount in excess of some undetermined baseline, which we expect to be on the order of the historical value of about 285 ppmv.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So I set up an Excel spreadsheet to use Solver to search for the value of the unknown percentage which remains after the ongoing sequestration, as well as the value of the unknown baseline, that give the best fit to the actual airborne CO2<\/sub>. You can download my spreadsheet here<\/a>, it\u2019s only 23 kbytes. I get the following values:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Unknown baseline: best fit = 286.8 ppmv<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given that the fitting process could have come up with a very wide range of values, that is a very good indication that atmospheric CO2<\/sub> levels are indeed related to human emissions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Unknown percentage remaining after each year\u2019s sequestration: best fit = 98.1%<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

And here is what those values give as a result. Remember, I\u2019m calculating the best fit of human emissions to the actual airborne CO2<\/sub> values using just two fitted variables\u2014the amount remaining after annual sequestration, and the pre-industrial baseline.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Now, on my planet at least, that\u2019s a very good fit. At all points, it\u2019s within 1.5 ppmv of observations, and the R2<\/sup> of the estimate and the observations is 0.997<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A couple of comments on that. First, for a two-parameter fit between emissions and CO2<\/sub> level, with one of the fitted parameters coming out very near the expected value, that seems clear evidence that the rise in CO2<\/sub> levels is MAINLY a result of human emissions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I say \u201cmainly\u201d because as you note, the observed CO2<\/sub> level goes both above and below the estimate. I assume this is because of changes in both emissions and sequestration rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now, as you can see, Jennifer is right that the estimate for the time of the dip due to COVID is slightly below the actual values. How much? The largest difference is the year after COVID, when observations are a whopping 0.7 ppmv above the value estimated from the emissions \u2026 be still my beating heart.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the same is true during a number of periods in the record.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why doesn\u2019t the COVID drop make much difference? Four reasons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

First, the e-folding time \u201ctau\u201d for the slow decay of a pulse of CO2<\/sub> is ~ 50 years, so any year is greatly affected by the previous years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Second, the drop in the emissions was small, only about 5%. Such small changes occur throughout the emissions record, and are smoothed over by the natural process of sequestration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Third, the emissions dip was short, only one year long, with the next year returning to normal amounts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fourth, there are other factors at play, changes in natural emissions and sequestrations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In closing, folks may ask about \u201ctau\u201d, the time constant being only 50 years when the scientific solons say excess CO2<\/sub> remains in the air for hundreds and hundreds of years. So are they correct? Well \u2026 yes \u2026and no. Excess CO2<\/sub> remains, just not very much. Given the annual decay rate calculated above, .981, here\u2019s how that plays out for the excess carbon.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

(Yes, I know that\u2019s different from what the standard \u201cBern Model\u201d of CO2<\/sub> sez \u2026 see my post<\/a> on that model, including the previous post linked therein.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

My best wishes to Jennifer Marohasy despite her claims in this one case\u2014she\u2019s a most valuable and insightful scientist.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

==========<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Me, I\u2019m not only in the very remote Solomon Islands near the Equator, north of Australia, where I worked for eight most wonderful years. I\u2019m in the even more remote Western Province of the Solos, chewing betel nut with lime and leaf, and having a great time. I also, for the first time in three weeks, have reasonable Internet. Why?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

My friend with whom I\u2019m staying has Starlink. So for all you Elon haters out there, he\u2019s done a huge service for mankind.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Best of the South Pacific to all, going scuba diving tomorrow, back to the US next week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

w.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

AS IS MY CUSTOM, I ask that when you comment you quote the EXACT WORDS you are discussing. It avoids endless misunderstandings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The most excellent reef and ocean scientist Jennifer Marohasy put up a Facebook post recently on the lack of much effect on the atmosphere CO2\u00a0levels from the 2020 emissions drop due to COVID. She says this shows human CO2\u00a0emissions have very little effect on atmospheric CO2\u00a0levels. However, I fear her graph is greatly misleading.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":373899,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691834288,691829997,691818195,691825204],"class_list":{"0":"post-373886","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-bern-model","9":"tag-carbon-dioxide-co","10":"tag-covid","11":"tag-jennifer-marohasy","13":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/0Carbon-Cycle-Steps.webp?fit=1300%2C807&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1zgq","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":371466,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=371466","url_meta":{"origin":373886,"position":0},"title":"How Climate Works. 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While humanity continues producing CO2 at increasing rates (with a temporary pause during COVID), how can we ever reach the point where these emissions start to fall, let alone reach zero by 2050 or 2060?","rel":"","context":"In \"CO2\"","block_context":{"text":"CO2","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=co2"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/0Mauna-Loa-NOAA-Observatory.jpg?fit=1200%2C733&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/0Mauna-Loa-NOAA-Observatory.jpg?fit=1200%2C733&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/0Mauna-Loa-NOAA-Observatory.jpg?fit=1200%2C733&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/0Mauna-Loa-NOAA-Observatory.jpg?fit=1200%2C733&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, 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