{"id":373109,"date":"2025-04-01T17:45:48","date_gmt":"2025-04-01T15:45:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=373109"},"modified":"2025-04-01T17:45:50","modified_gmt":"2025-04-01T15:45:50","slug":"the-coming-cold-shot-is-well-correlated-with-the-natural-march-stratospheric-warming-event","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=373109","title":{"rendered":"The coming cold shot is well correlated with the natural March stratospheric warming event"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From CFACT<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Joe Bastardi<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Upset young woman wearing winter scarf standing isolated over white background, shivering<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

In the last 20 years, only two April 6-15 had major cold in the eastern US.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2016:<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

2018\u2033<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Both had major stratospheric warming events telegraphing them in March.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

The period this year is currently forecasted like this:<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

We had other years where cold was centered in the west, but not in the major eastern and southern markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2020<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

2021<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

2022<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

There was some warming then, so cold showed up, but the question was where would the cold show up?<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

The entire month as a whole those years of warming had a distinct cold flavor for the US.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Now look at the warm Aprils.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

10mb in March ( the stratosphere was cold)<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Why there is any waffling on this matter is beyond me. The mean of the punch-the-clock on the cooling after the warming goes off is around 30 days from when the warming starts, and those chickens are coming home to roost.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s not global weirding, it\u2019s what the weather does.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now, with it so warm the cries of climate change causing out-of-season cold after it being so warm are going to arise.  So-called Global Weirding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Let me get 6 ugly cold Aprils before the hysterics really took over with their agenda driven drivel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1975,1982,1983, 1984, 1993, 2007<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

What did we have in the stratosphere in March?<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Isn\u2019t that special?\u00a0 All that warming in the stratosphere the month before spring takes a step back in April, and all when CO2 was much lower.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Heh, the over\/under on games called due to snow in Denver April 4-10 Rockies home stand is 2.\u00a0 I wonder if the Yankee torpedo bats would work if snow happened to show up in the air when they were playing?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In the last 20 years, only two April 6-15 had major cold in the eastern US.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":373145,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818056,691833794,691834194],"class_list":{"0":"post-373109","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-climate-change","9":"tag-global-weirding","10":"tag-stratospheric-warming","12":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/0stratospheric-warming-winter-polar-vortex-pressure-temperature-vertical-wave-energy-transport-system-heat-flux-power.jpg?fit=1211%2C427&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1z3T","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":312035,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=312035","url_meta":{"origin":373109,"position":0},"title":"THE POLAR VORTEX IS SPINNING BACKWARDS","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"22\/03\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Earlier this month, atmospheric scientists noticed something unusual in the Arctic stratosphere. The polar vortex was spinning backward.","rel":"","context":"In \"atmospheric scientists\"","block_context":{"text":"atmospheric scientists","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=atmospheric-scientists"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0Polar2029.jpg?fit=1200%2C790&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0Polar2029.jpg?fit=1200%2C790&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0Polar2029.jpg?fit=1200%2C790&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0Polar2029.jpg?fit=1200%2C790&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0Polar2029.jpg?fit=1200%2C790&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":312717,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=312717","url_meta":{"origin":373109,"position":1},"title":"The extraordinary climate events of 2022-24","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"25\/03\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The unlikely volcano, the warmest year, and the collapse of the polar vortex.","rel":"","context":"In \"collapse of the polar vortex\"","block_context":{"text":"collapse of the polar vortex","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=collapse-of-the-polar-vortex"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0DMAUHMAWHJOOVJQXJPFJ5GINMM.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0DMAUHMAWHJOOVJQXJPFJ5GINMM.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0DMAUHMAWHJOOVJQXJPFJ5GINMM.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0DMAUHMAWHJOOVJQXJPFJ5GINMM.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0DMAUHMAWHJOOVJQXJPFJ5GINMM.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":306259,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=306259","url_meta":{"origin":373109,"position":2},"title":"Climate fortune tellers say global warming causes cold spells too","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"07\/03\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The climate hypnotists tell you every kind of weather is climate change","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/428cb5e678da63e8f316391bc0d6116d.jpg?fit=1200%2C695&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/428cb5e678da63e8f316391bc0d6116d.jpg?fit=1200%2C695&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/428cb5e678da63e8f316391bc0d6116d.jpg?fit=1200%2C695&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/428cb5e678da63e8f316391bc0d6116d.jpg?fit=1200%2C695&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/428cb5e678da63e8f316391bc0d6116d.jpg?fit=1200%2C695&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":294671,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=294671","url_meta":{"origin":373109,"position":3},"title":"The Polar Vortex Wobbled in\u00a0December","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"12\/01\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"(Spaceweather.com) Last month, sky watchers in Europe saw something rare and beautiful. A giant bank of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) escaped the Arctic Circle, and for more than a week they filled skies with rainbow color as far south as Italy.","rel":"","context":"In \"Earth\u2019s stratosphere\"","block_context":{"text":"Earth\u2019s stratosphere","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=earths-stratosphere"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/Pablo-Javier-Lucero-DSC03820_1703531673.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/Pablo-Javier-Lucero-DSC03820_1703531673.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/Pablo-Javier-Lucero-DSC03820_1703531673.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/Pablo-Javier-Lucero-DSC03820_1703531673.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/Pablo-Javier-Lucero-DSC03820_1703531673.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":389931,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=389931","url_meta":{"origin":373109,"position":4},"title":"Climate Oscillations 9: Arctic & North Atlantic Oscillations","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"20\/07\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is also called the Northern Annular Mode or NAM. It is analogous to the Southern Annular Mode or SAM discussed in\u00a0Climate Oscillations 5. However, there is a large difference, whereas SAM is an oscillation over an ocean that surrounds land, NAM is an oscillation over land\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Arctic Oscillation (AO)\"","block_context":{"text":"Arctic Oscillation (AO)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=arctic-oscillation-ao"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/0figure-3.jpg?fit=1200%2C1029&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/0figure-3.jpg?fit=1200%2C1029&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/0figure-3.jpg?fit=1200%2C1029&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/0figure-3.jpg?fit=1200%2C1029&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/0figure-3.jpg?fit=1200%2C1029&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":292657,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=292657","url_meta":{"origin":373109,"position":5},"title":"Record-Cold Weather in the\u00a0Stratosphere","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"26\/12\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Cold air in the stratosphere is exactly what PSCs require. Normally, the stratosphere has no clouds at all. But when the temperature drops to a staggeringly-low -85 C, widely-spaced water molecules coalesce into ice crystals and PSCs begin to form. Their aurora-like colors make them the most beautiful clouds on\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0Branca-Cristina-IMG-20231222-WA0019_1703327190.jpg?fit=1024%2C768&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0Branca-Cristina-IMG-20231222-WA0019_1703327190.jpg?fit=1024%2C768&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0Branca-Cristina-IMG-20231222-WA0019_1703327190.jpg?fit=1024%2C768&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0Branca-Cristina-IMG-20231222-WA0019_1703327190.jpg?fit=1024%2C768&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/373109","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=373109"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/373109\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":373147,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/373109\/revisions\/373147"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/373145"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=373109"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=373109"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=373109"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}