{"id":373039,"date":"2025-04-01T09:20:24","date_gmt":"2025-04-01T07:20:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=373039"},"modified":"2025-04-01T09:20:26","modified_gmt":"2025-04-01T07:20:26","slug":"scientists-unexpectedly-find-the-declining-sea-ice-trend-since-1980-has-radiatively-cooled-the-earth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=373039","title":{"rendered":"Scientists \u2018Unexpectedly\u2019 Find The Declining Sea Ice Trend Since 1980 Has Radiatively Cooled The Earth"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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From NoTrickZone<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By\u00a0Kenneth Richard<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The alarmist narrative that says disappearing sea ice serves to enhance and worsen global warming may now be discarded.<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

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For decades it has been assumed the sea ice concentration (SIC) reduction trend in the Arctic over the first 30 years of the satellite era (1979-2007, with\u00a0a flat trend since then<\/a><\/strong>) would lead to a precipitous decline in reflective albedo. Consequently, with more open water rather than brightly reflective ice, the Arctic would perpetually warm even more than it already has.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But now, according to analysis found in a new<\/strong> Science Advances<\/em> study<\/strong><\/a>, this assumption may no longer be valid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Image Source:\u00a0Zhou et al., 2025<\/a><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The global top of atmosphere (TOA) radiative effect of SIC changes, \u0394\ud835\udc45, is dependent not just on SIC trends in the Arctic, but on SIC trends in Antarctica as well. The Southern Hemisphere\u2019s SIC has been increasing throughout most of the satellite era, especially from 1979 to 2015.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Globally, then, the \u0394\ud835\udc45 of Antarctic SIC gains asymmetrically offsets the \u0394\ud835\udc45 stemming from Arctic SIC reduction due to SIC-induced albedo feedback processes. Thus, the modern era global SIC trends have served to \u201ccool Earth.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201c[N]umerical simulations indicate that the bulk radiative effect of SIC reduction with certain spatial patterns (e.g., trends during 1980\u20132008) could even cool Earth due to the hemispheric asymmetry of SIC change.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201c[T]he negative trend during this period [1980-2008] is primarily induced by the SIC increase in the Antarctic regions. \u2026 [T]he radiative cooling induced by Antarctic SIC growth is greater than the radiative heating induced by Arctic SIC reduction.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

To reiterate, the \u0394\ud835\udc45 of declining global sea ice concentration (SIC) from 1980-2008 has led \u201cto planetary cooling\u201d due to the \u201cradiative cooling induced by Antarctic SIC growth\u201d. This is the opposite of what promulgators of disappearing-sea-ice alarmist narratives have been claiming for decades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The authors of the paper accordingly describe the SIC-induced global cooling radiative effect stemming from declining global SIC as an \u201cunexpected\u201d development.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cUnexpectedly, the trend of global \u0394\ud835\udc45 [radiative effect of sea ice changes] is negative despite the statistically significant decrease of global SIC between 1980 and 2008, implying that global SIC reduction leads to planetary cooling during this period.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finally, it is interesting that the chart shown in the top right (Fig. S3) indicates not only has the SIC-induced \u0394\ud835\udc45 change been flat to declining in recent decades, there also has been no obvious SIC-induced \u0394\ud835\udc45 change or trend since ~1875.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Could sea ice\u00a0alarmism<\/em>\u00a0be disappearing?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n