{"id":371202,"date":"2025-03-21T09:53:58","date_gmt":"2025-03-21T08:53:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=371202"},"modified":"2025-03-21T09:54:00","modified_gmt":"2025-03-21T08:54:00","slug":"study-destroys-basis-of-epa-climate-regulations","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=371202","title":{"rendered":"Study Destroys Basis of EPA Climate Regulations"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Guest essay by Vijay Jayaraj<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For two decades, the public has been bombarded with dire warnings of an impending climate-induced agricultural apocalypse. The claim is that a climate warmed excessively by the carbon dioxide<\/a> emissions of human activity will ravage the food supply and plunge humanity into famine and chaos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For many reasons, none of this ever-made sense. Now, a new\u00a0study<\/a>\u00a0published in\u00a0Scientific Reports\u00a0has turned this narrative of catastrophe on its head, revealing that a global temperature rise of even 5 degrees Celsius (9 degrees Fahrenheit) would not reduce crop yields\u2014and might even increase harvests.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The paper, written by economist Ross McKitrick, dismantles a key pillar of the Biden Administration\u2019s always-suspect upward revision of the \u201csocial cost of carbon<\/a>\u201d\u2014a metric used by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to quantify the supposed economic damage of carbon dioxide emissions. The fivefold increase of the social cost of carbon\u2014from $51 per ton of carbon dioxide to more than $250\u2014was based partly on the assumption that warming would devastate agriculture.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The new findings aren\u2019t just a minor correction to the scientific record; they are a reversal of dangerous conclusions drawn from sloppy\u2014perhaps even fraudulent\u2014analyses. Everything we\u2019ve been told about climate change and food security is wrong.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

How did the EPA arrive at a social cost of carbon that equates with mass starvation?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2014, a widely cited meta-analysis of crop-model studies claimed that a warming climate would slash global crop yields, an assertion that fed into subsequent models that influenced the Biden EPA\u2019s social cost of carbon hike.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That original dataset, however, was flawed\u2014crippled by missing variables. Of its 1,722 records, nearly half lacked critical data, such as changes in CO2 concentrations, leaving only 862 usable entries. This incomplete picture painted a grim outlook of crop yields declining with only modest warming.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

McKitrick, undeterred by what had become climate orthodoxy, dug deeper. By revisiting the source material, he recovered 360 additional records, bringing the total to 1,222\u2014about a 40% increase in usable data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The additional information showed \u201cpositive average output gains for all crop types across the warming scenarios even up to 5 degrees Celsius\u201d\u2014a temperature jump far beyond warming predictions of the U.N.\u2019s International Panel on Climate Change. This isn\u2019t cherry-picking; it\u2019s what happens when the full scope of evidence is examined.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIf over the next 100-200 years, yields of all crop types increase, it does not stand to reason that a global trade model could generate global welfare reductions,\u201d writes McKitrick in his concluding remarks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

McKitrick\u2019s findings, grounded in a more comprehensive dataset, suggest the doomsday assumption was built on sand. Far from heralding a collapse, the data show crop yields at least holding steady and even improving with significant warming.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moreover, plants are not too frail for a warming world. They\u2019re built to thrive in the contemporary temperatures of the 20th and 21st centuries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Most crops fall into two categories: C3 and C4 plants, so named to reflect their different photosynthetic processes. C3 crops, such as wheat, rice, and soybeans, flourish in elevated CO2 conditions characteristic of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Carbon dioxide<\/a> is food to plants, necessary for the process of photosynthesis\u2014a process where oxygen is a byproduct.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher levels of CO2 act like a supercharger, boosting photosynthesis and water-use efficiency. Studies have long shown that CO2 enrichment in greenhouses can increase C3 yields by 20% to 40%. C4 crops\u2014like corn and sorghum\u2014are less responsive to CO2 but do well in hotter, drier conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In summary, if crop yields don\u2019t crash\u2014if they hold steady or grow\u2014the rationale for a sky-high social cost of carbon<\/a> disappears.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The McKitrick study is consistent with an extensive historical record that documents human flourishing during earlier eras warmer than today. The Minoan Warm Period 3,000 years ago and the Roman Warm Period and Medieval Warm Periods that followed are examples.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Unfortunately, the United Nation\u2019s International Panel on Climate Change\u2014relied on by many as the standard-bearer for information on climate change\u2014favors adherence to climate dogma over rigorous scientific inquiry. It often ignores cutting-edge findings like McKitrick\u2019s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So where do we go from here?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

First, the social cost of carbon<\/a> calculation needs a reset. A realistic assessment would show that carbon dioxide is a benefit, not a pollutant, and that increasing CO2 adds to global productivity rather than imposes costs on society.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The EPA must revisit its numbers, stripping out inflated agricultural damages and grounding its estimates in all the data available. It is time to look at the facts, trust the real science, and end the irrational governmental messaging that feeds climate hysteria.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

This commentary was first published at The Daily Signal<\/a><\/em> on March 16, 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vijay Jayaraj<\/a> is a Science and Research Associate at the <\/em>CO2<\/sub> Coalition<\/em><\/a>, Arlington, Virginia. He <\/em>holds an M.S. in environmental sciences from the University of East Anglia and a postgraduate degree in energy management from Robert Gordon University, both in the U.K., and a bachelor\u2019s in engineering from Anna University, India.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

For two decades, the public has been bombarded with dire warnings of an impending climate-induced agricultural apocalypse. The claim is that a climate warmed excessively by the\u00a0carbon dioxide\u00a0emissions of human activity will ravage the food supply and plunge humanity into famine and chaos.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":371204,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818336,691829997,691818272,691833945,691833292,691833665,691827068],"class_list":{"0":"post-371202","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-biden-administration","9":"tag-carbon-dioxide-co","10":"tag-climate-hysteria","11":"tag-crop-model-studies","12":"tag-epa-environmental-protection-agency","13":"tag-international-panel-on-climate-change-ipcc","14":"tag-social-cost-of-carbon-scc","16":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0Massive-global-crop-yield-variations-explained-by-climate-extremes.jpg?fit=1440%2C959&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1yz8","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":368941,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=368941","url_meta":{"origin":371202,"position":0},"title":"Wrong, PBS, Real-World Data Doesn\u2019t Show That a Climate Crisis Is Happening","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"07\/03\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The Public Broadcasting System (PBS) recently published article by Seth Borenstein of the Associated Press (AP), titled \u201cScientists say EPA just needs to look around the world to see the growing dangers of climate change,\u201d\u00a0which says that proof of catastrophic climate change is found in obvious \u201cgrowing dangers\u201d evident for\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Associated Press (AP)\"","block_context":{"text":"Associated Press (AP)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=associated-press-ap"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0subsevents_climate.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0subsevents_climate.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0subsevents_climate.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0subsevents_climate.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0subsevents_climate.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":405512,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=405512","url_meta":{"origin":371202,"position":1},"title":"Climate Change Forever- It is time to stop vilifying carbon dioxide","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"28\/09\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Earth\u2019s weather and climate have always been in a perpetual state of flux. 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