{"id":371174,"date":"2025-03-21T08:51:07","date_gmt":"2025-03-21T07:51:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=371174"},"modified":"2025-03-21T08:51:08","modified_gmt":"2025-03-21T07:51:08","slug":"after-years-of-pushing-net-zero-propaganda-the-international-energy-agency-suddenly-remembers-what-its-for","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=371174","title":{"rendered":"After Years of Pushing Net Zero Propaganda the International Energy Agency Suddenly Remembers What it\u2019s For"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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From The Daily Sceptic<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By\u00a0Tilak Doshi<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n

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At last week\u2019s CERA Week conference in Houston, the Executive Director of the International Energy Agency Fatih Birol told<\/a> attendees that \u201cI want to make it clear\u2026 there would be a need for investment, especially to address the decline in the existing fields. There is a need for oil and gas upstream investments, full stop.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is quite the turnaround from the IEA\u2019s astonishing report issued in 2021 entitled \u2018Net Zero by 2050: A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector<\/a>\u2018. It espoused an end to all new investments in oil and gas (let alone coal) from 2021. Mr Birol then stated<\/a> that: \u201cIf governments are serious about the climate crisis, there can be no new investments in oil, gas and coal, from now \u2013 from this year.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Has the leopard changed its spots? And, if so, why?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

No More Oil and Gas Needed<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The IEA is the OECD\u2019s energy advisory body which was established in the wake of the oil price shock of 1973 to ensure the security of oil supplies and to promote policy cooperation among its members. Its charter includes setting up a collective-action mechanism to respond effectively to potential disruptions in oil supply as well as developing energy-conservation policies. Since its founding in 1974, the IEA emerged as a reliable research institution covering global energy data and trends useful for energy analysts. It quickly became the go-to source for government planners around the world responsible for key national objectives in energy security, affordability and reliability.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Birol had as recently as 2017 urged industry to pump more oil to ensure against future shortages. \u201cOur message to the oil industry here in Houston is invest, invest, invest,\u201d he said<\/a> at the CERAWeek conference in January that year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yet, by the time of its 50th anniversary conference (2024) in Paris, the IEA was well established in its new role<\/a> as \u201cthe world\u2019s shepherd towards a green future from a fossil fuel past\u201d. US Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry, the Biden administration\u2019s champion for the Green New Deal<\/a>, said, \u201cThanks to the genuinely extraordinary job Fatih has been doing, the IEA is now probably the principal arbiter\u2026 with respect to our policies.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The 2021 \u2018Net Zero by 2050\u2019 report sealed the IEA\u2019s rapid pivot to being an advocacy organisation<\/a> devoted to promoting renewable energy at the expense of conventional fossil fuels. The report aligned the IEA with its key budget contributors in the EU Commission and the Biden administration. The IEA\u2019s \u2018green pivot\u2019 cost the organisation its credibility as an issuer of objective research such that, by 2022, OPEC stopped using IEA data in its oil market assessments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The infamous Net Zero 2021 report billed itself as \u201cthe world\u2019s first comprehensive study of how to transition to a Net Zero energy system by 2050 while ensuring stable and affordable energy supplies, providing universal energy access and enabling robust economic growth\u201d. Its roadmap, the report claims, sets out \u201ca cost effective and economically productive pathway\u201d to a \u201cresilient energy economy dominated by renewables like solar and wind instead of fossil fuels\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To its detractors, the report constituted an exercise in magical thinking<\/a>, calling for the replacement of the world\u2019s vast and complex energy system \u2014 built over two centuries of cumulative industrial development and currently supplying over 80% of its primary energy supply \u2013 within three decades. Some industry practitioners were more blunt, with the Saudi oil minister calling the report a sequel to La La Land<\/em><\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A forensic analysis<\/a> by the Energy Policy Research Foundation found the report\u2019s optimistic expectations on wind and solar displacing fossil fuels to be illusory. Once the cost of new transmission lines connecting remote renewable power sites to demand centres are added to those of integrating intermittent sources with backup dispatchable power, massive new mining capacity for critical minerals and expensive new battery storage, the financial case for Net Zero ceases to be credible. The report\u2019s forecasts for new innovations and technologies that are not proven to be commercially viable are overly optimistic. Out of the IEA\u2019s own database<\/a> of over 500 listed individual clean energy technologies at various stages of \u2018readiness\u2019, only 29 technologies (less than 6%) have achieved some level of commercial competitiveness.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The EPRF analysis concludes that \u201cthe IEA has made many questionable assumptions and milestones for \u2018Net Zero Emissions\u2019 about Government policies, energy and carbon prices, behavioural changes, economic growth and technology maturity\u201d. Forsaking its previous role as an authoritative source of analytical energy research to become an advocacy group for Net Zero, the IEA \u201chas allowed itself to be used as a tool for climate extremism, has misled policymakers and has endangered the world\u2019s economy and Western security, all while forsaking the purpose for which it was created\u201d, says Rupert Darwall in his foreword to the EPRF report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The IEA\u2019s Turnaround at CERA Week<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

What is one to make of Fatih Birol\u2019s remarkable turnaround at last week\u2019s CERA conference in Houston, where he called for more investments in oil and gas? Was Mr Birol finally coming round to the views held by practitioners in the field such as the US Energy Secretary Chris Wright, previously CEO of Liberty Energy, and Amin Nasser, CEO of Saudi Aramco, the world\u2019s largest oil company?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In his keynote speech<\/a> to the conference, Mr Wright articulated President Trump\u2019s energy agenda in no uncertain terms:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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The Trump administration will end the Biden administration\u2019s irrational quasi-religious policies on climate change that imposed endless sacrifices on our citizens. \u2026 Our focus will be steadfast on the American people and our allies abroad. \u2026 Roughly one billion people live lives remotely recognisable to us in this room. \u2026This lifestyle requires an average of 13 barrels of oil per person per year. What about the other seven billion people? They want what we have. The other seven billion people on average consume only three barrels of oil per person per year versus our 13. Africans average less than one barrel. We need more energy. Lots more energy. That much should be obvious. \u2026We are unabashedly pursuing a policy of more American energy production and infrastructure, not less. Our goal is to re-industrialise America, not de-industrialise America.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

In his speech<\/a> to the CERA conference, Mr Nasser was typically and equally blunt in his assessment of the state of affairs in global energy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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New sources add to the energy mix and complement existing sources. They do not replace them. That is why the current strategy of prematurely switching to immature alternatives has been so self-destructive. \u2026 New sources cannot even meet the growth in demand, while the proven sources needed to fill the gap are demonised and discarded. It is a fast-track to dystopia, not utopia. In short, the net result of $10 trillion over two decades is to basically stand still and consume record quantities of coal. \u2026 Not exactly mission accomplished! In fact, there is more chance of Elvis speaking next than the current plan working! And a wave of public dissatisfaction with transition reality is crashing over countries, companies and consumers alike.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Mr Birol\u2019s turnaround on oil and gas was commented<\/a> on in the OPEC press room as follows:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Aside from the risk of whiplash that such severe yo-yoing between positions could cause, a serious point needs to be stressed. \u2026 Agencies that recognise the responsibility that comes from offering analysis of the long-term perspectives of the industry should not be shifting positions or mixing messages and narratives every couple of years on this matter, particularly ones that were founded to ensure the security of oil supplies.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Elections Have Consequences<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Perhaps Mr Birol is not so much impressed by objective analysis of the past two decades of wasted spending on intermittent and unreliable renewable energy technologies as he is of the changed circumstances under the Trump administration. It was already apparent during Mr Trump\u2019s election campaign that the IEA would face pressures for a change in direction if he won. Mario Loyola, a former Trump environmental adviser, said in an interview in Le Monde<\/em><\/a> in October last year that: \u201cThe US should definitely come up with a strategy to replace the leadership at the IEA.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the IEA\u2019s 50th anniversary conference in Paris, Mr Birol publicly denied the notion that the organisation\u2019s focus would change if Mr Trump was elected President, saying<\/a> that: \u201cThe economic and technology dynamics, the policy dynamics are very strong, I believe the clean energy transition will continue to move fast whoever the next President is.\u201d Climate zealots \u2013 from Ed Miliband<\/a>, the UK\u2019s Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero, to John Kerry<\/a>, President Biden\u2019s Special Envoy for Climate \u2013 have been sold on the thesis of the irreversibility of the energy transition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It remains to be seen if Mr Birol is a climate zealot or simply the piper who will play his current master\u2019s tune. Either way, elections matter and President Trump\u2019s \u2018energy dominance<\/a>\u2018 agenda will have consequences for Mr Birol and the IEA. It cannot be soon enough for the billions of people adversely affected by the \u2018Net Zero\u2019 climate change policies foisted by the luxury beliefs<\/a> of the ruling elites in the developed West over these past two decades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dr Tilak K. Doshi is the <\/em>Daily Sceptic\u2018s Energy Editor. He is an economist, a member of the CO2 <\/sub>Coalition and a former contributor to <\/em>Forbes.<\/em> Follow him on <\/em>Substack<\/em><\/a> and<\/em> X<\/em><\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

At last week\u2019s CERA Week conference in Houston, the Executive Director of the International Energy Agency Fatih Birol\u00a0told\u00a0attendees that \u201cI want to make it clear\u2026 there would be a need for investment, especially to address the decline in the existing fields. 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