{"id":370784,"date":"2025-03-18T15:58:30","date_gmt":"2025-03-18T14:58:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=370784"},"modified":"2025-03-18T15:58:32","modified_gmt":"2025-03-18T14:58:32","slug":"no-smithsonian-magazine-climate-change-is-not-the-main-driver-of-satellite-collision-risk-the-sun-is","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=370784","title":{"rendered":"No, Smithsonian Magazine, Climate Change Is Not the Main Driver of Satellite Collision Risk\u2014The Sun Is"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From ClimateRealism<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Anthony Watts<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

A recent article from Smithsonian Magazine<\/em> (SM) titled \u201cClimate Change Might Increase Satellite Collisions, Limiting How Many Can Safely Orbit Earth, Study Finds\u201d<\/a> claims that human-induced climate change is causing the upper atmosphere to contract, reducing drag on satellites and space debris, which could lead to more collisions. This is misleading if not outright false. Multiple studies show the dominant factor influencing the density and temperature of the upper atmosphere\u2014where some satellites orbit\u2014is solar activity, not carbon dioxide emissions. Data from decades of space research confirm that variations in solar radiation, particularly changes in ultraviolet (UV) output and solar wind, have far greater impacts on atmospheric density than any CO\u2082-driven effects.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The study<\/a>, referenced by the SM article, is summarized as: \u201cThe thermosphere, <\/em>which begins around 50 miles (80 kilometers) above Earth\u2019s surface, is contracting. This is because as greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and methane accumulate in the lower atmosphere, they radiate heat into space and cause the upper atmosphere to cool and shrink.\u201d<\/em> This claim exaggerates the role of human greenhouse gas emissions while ignoring the well-documented influence of solar variability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The thermosphere<\/a>, seen in the graphic from The Canadian Space Agency below, is primarily heated by the Sun\u2019s intense ultraviolet radiation<\/a>, and its temperature and density fluctuate significantly in response to the 11-year solar cycle<\/a>. When solar activity is high, the thermosphere expands, increasing drag on satellites and space debris. Conversely, during solar minima, the thermosphere contracts. These natural solar-driven variations completely overshadow any potential effect from anthropogenic CO\u2082.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The Earth\u2019s atmosphere has five primary layers: the troposphere, stratosphere, mesosphere,\u00a0and the exosphere. Image:\u00a0<\/em>Canadian Space Agency<\/em><\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

A study in the Journal of Space Research<\/em><\/a> confirms that thermospheric temperature fluctuations are overwhelmingly linked to solar output, not greenhouse gases. Similarly, research in Space Weather Science<\/em><\/a> demonstrates that solar activity is the primary driver of upper atmospheric density changes, affecting satellite drag far more than any CO\u2082-related cooling. In addition, a report in EOS<\/em><\/a> shows that during a weaker-than-normal solar cycle, the thermosphere cooled and contracted more than expected. This aligns with long-term observations that solar variability dictates thermospheric behavior. NASA also credits<\/a> the sun as driving the changes in the thermosphere.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While many satellites orbit Earth in the thermosphere, most Earth-orbiting satellites reside in the exosphere, such as geostationary satellites with orbits at 22,500 miles<\/a> even higher than the exosphere, the outermost layer of the Earth\u2019s atmosphere, where the atmosphere thins out and merges with outer space. So, the concerns about the thermosphere in the SM article are mostly moot, especially since many satellites that orbit in the thermosphere can boost with thrusters to a higher orbit<\/a> if needed. Engineers plan for this.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The SM  article also fails to consider historical data. If CO\u2082 were truly the primary driver of thermospheric contraction, we would expect to see a steady, predictable decline in atmospheric density as CO2<\/sub> emissions have increased. Instead, we observe clear cyclical patterns that correspond with the 11 year solar cycle<\/a>, not industrial CO\u2082 emissions. During past solar minima, such as the Dalton Minimum (1790\u20131830) and the Maunder Minimum (1645\u20131715), similar thermospheric contractions occurred\u2014long before human activity significantly increased CO\u2082 levels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

By pushing a climate change-driven explanation while ignoring the Sun\u2019s dominant role, and ignoring where most satellites orbit Earth,\u00a0Smithsonian Magazine<\/em>\u00a0is misrepresenting what science tells us about the atmosphere and what drives change in it. Space debris is a real issue that requires attention, but CO2<\/sub>\u00a0neither creates space debris nor is making collision with such debris more likely. Blaming CO\u2082 emissions for upper-atmospheric changes is a false narrative and distracts attention from the real problem of how to handle space debris.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A recent article from\u00a0Smithsonian Magazine\u00a0(SM) titled\u00a0\u201cClimate Change Might Increase Satellite Collisions, Limiting How Many Can Safely Orbit Earth, Study Finds\u201d\u00a0claims that human-induced climate change is causing the upper atmosphere to contract, reducing drag on satellites and space debris, which could lead to more collisions. This is misleading if not outright false. Multiple studies show the dominant factor influencing the density and temperature of the upper atmosphere\u2014where some satellites orbit\u2014is solar activity, not carbon dioxide emissions.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":370791,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691829997,691818056,691833891,691833890,691820367,691818496,691833892],"class_list":["post-370784","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-carbon-dioxide-co","tag-climate-change","tag-satellite-collisions","tag-smithsonian-magazine-sm","tag-solar-radiation","tag-solar-wind","tag-ultraviolet-uv-output","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0space-satellite-orbiting-the-earth-elements-of-this-image-furnished-by-nasa_nyxocevvyx_thumbnail-1080_01.png?fit=1920%2C1080&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1yso","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":260970,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=260970","url_meta":{"origin":370784,"position":0},"title":"Thermosphere is Cooling, Bad for Satellites. 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