{"id":369845,"date":"2025-03-14T09:18:07","date_gmt":"2025-03-14T08:18:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=369845"},"modified":"2025-03-14T09:18:09","modified_gmt":"2025-03-14T08:18:09","slug":"guardian-falsely-claims-climate-change-is-intensifying-cyclones","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=369845","title":{"rendered":"Guardian Falsely Claims Climate Change is Intensifying Cyclones"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Essay by<\/strong> Eric Worrall<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Australia total cyclones per year. Source\u00a0Australian BOM<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Contradictory evidence is now \u201cuncertainty\u201d?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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As Trump attacks US science agencies, ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred ushers in a fresh wave of climate denial in Australia<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Adam Morton<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Australia, the past week has seen a fresh wave of climate denial as ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred approached and hit the southern Queensland coast. News Corp outlets, in particular, have run straw man arguments attacking people that have forcefully linked the storm to the climate crisis.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

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Some commentators have pointed out that southern Queensland has had cyclones before. Others have suggested there is uncertainty in the data about the pace and way in which they are changing<\/strong>, and that climate change didn\u2019t \u201ccause\u201d Alfred. Well, yes. That\u2019s all correct, of course, but hardly the point.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What they mostly haven\u2019t said is that the ocean and atmosphere are demonstrably warmer<\/strong> than even just a few years ago. Or that this means the most intense storms formed in warmer conditions carry more energy and more water. Or that the conditions under which tropical cyclones can form are moving south as the planet heats up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The evidence is that this is making tropical cyclones less frequent but more intense<\/strong>. There is data suggesting they also tend to last longer. Greater intensity plus time equals heightened risk of damage and casualties. It doesn\u2019t mean that every cyclone or extreme storm will be more damaging than in the past. It does mean that when one comes, the potential for it to carry enough energy to wreak significant havoc is rising, not falling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026Read more:\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/environment\/commentisfree\/2025\/mar\/11\/ex-tropical-cyclone-alfred-climate-denial-australia-trump-attacks-us-science-agencies<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

The graph at the top of the page shows both cyclone numbers and intensity are in long term decline. There is no \u201cuncertainty\u201d, this is reality.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It doesn\u2019t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn\u2019t matter how smart you are. If it doesn\u2019t agree with experiment, it\u2019s wrong.<\/em> \u2013 Richard Feynman.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The statement \u201cthis [ocean heating] is making tropical cyclones less frequent but more intense\u201d is not supported by the evidence that tropical cyclones are declining both in frequency and intensity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why would anyone believe something which is so blatantly false? I don\u2019t know why journalist Adam Morton holds this view, but the idea that models are more important than observations appears to be deep rooted in the climate community.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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"People underestimate the power of models. Observational evidence is not very useful."<\/a><\/blockquote>