{"id":369691,"date":"2025-03-13T08:48:40","date_gmt":"2025-03-13T07:48:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=369691"},"modified":"2025-03-13T08:48:42","modified_gmt":"2025-03-13T07:48:42","slug":"celestial-driver-for-middle-miocene-cooling","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=369691","title":{"rendered":"Celestial Driver for Middle Miocene Cooling?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"531\" data-attachment-id=\"369705\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=369705\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0Screenshot-2025-03-13-084751.png?fit=1279%2C939&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1279,939\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"0,Screenshot 2025-03-13 084751\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0Screenshot-2025-03-13-084751.png?fit=723%2C531&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0Screenshot-2025-03-13-084751.png?resize=723%2C531&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-369705\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0Screenshot-2025-03-13-084751.png?resize=1024%2C752&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0Screenshot-2025-03-13-084751.png?resize=300%2C220&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0Screenshot-2025-03-13-084751.png?resize=768%2C564&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0Screenshot-2025-03-13-084751.png?resize=1200%2C881&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0Screenshot-2025-03-13-084751.png?w=1279&amp;ssl=1 1279w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">From <a href=\"https:\/\/wattsupwiththat.com\/2025\/03\/12\/celestial-driver-for-late-miocene-cooling\/\">Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Guest \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/sites.google.com\/cfa.harvard.edu\/radcliffewave\/\">Surfing the Radcliffe Wave<\/a>\u201d by <a href=\"https:\/\/wattsupwiththat.com\/author\/debunkhouse\/\">David Middleton<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Approximately 34 million years ago (mya), during the Early Oligocene Epoch, the Earth entered its current \u201cicehouse\u201d climate mode, with ice sheets covering Antarctica. After warming up again towards the end of the Oligocene, Earth\u2019s climate began a long cooling trend, punctuated by a brief warm period during the Late to Middle Miocene Epoch.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"537\" data-attachment-id=\"369693\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=369693\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image-358.png?fit=1110%2C825&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1110,825\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image-358.png?fit=723%2C537&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image-358.png?resize=723%2C537&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-369693\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image-358.png?resize=1024%2C761&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image-358.png?resize=300%2C223&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image-358.png?resize=768%2C571&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image-358.png?resize=200%2C150&amp;ssl=1 200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image-358.png?w=1110&amp;ssl=1 1110w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Figure 1. Cenozoic Era climate reconstruction rom Zachos et al., 2001 (older is toward the bottom).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Middle Miocene Climatic Optimum (MMCO) was an anomalous warm interval from ~17 to ~14 mya. The incorrect assumption that CO<sub>2<\/sub>&nbsp;is the climate change \u201ccontrol knob\u201d has led to many attempts to link the MMCO to the CO<sub>2<\/sub>&nbsp;and other greenhouse gas emissions related to the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/wattsupwiththat.com\/2019\/06\/03\/miocene-volcanism-carbon-dioxide-and-climate\/\">Columbia River Basalt Group (CRBG) eruptions<\/a>. The CBRG eruptions do appear to be coeval with the MMCO\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Flood basalts, the largest volcanic events in Earth history, are thought to drive global environmental change because they can emit large volumes of CO<sub>2<\/sub>&nbsp;and SO<sub>2<\/sub>&nbsp;over short geologic time scales. Eruption of the Columbia River Basalt Group (CRBG) has been linked to elevated atmospheric CO<sub>2<\/sub>&nbsp;and global warming during the mid-Miocene climate optimum (MMCO) ~16 million years (Ma) ago. However, a causative relationship between volcanism and warming remains speculative, as the timing and tempo of CRBG eruptions is not well known. We use U-Pb geochronology on zircon-bearing volcanic ash beds intercalated within the basalt stratigraphy to build a high-resolution CRBG eruption record. Our data set shows that more than 95% of the CRBG erupted between 16.7 and 15.9 Ma, twice as fast as previous estimates. By suggesting a recalibration of the geomagnetic polarity time scale, these data indicate that the onset of flood volcanism is nearly contemporaneous with that of the MMCO.<a href=\"https:\/\/advances.sciencemag.org\/content\/4\/9\/eaat8223#ref-7\">Kashbohm &amp; Schoene (2018)<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">These flood basalt eruptions certainly would have emitted a lot of CO<sub>2<\/sub>, other volcanic gasses and sulfate aerosols. However, the CO<sub>2<\/sub>\u00a0outgassing was probably only a fraction of what would have been required to explain the MMCO.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Armstrong McKay et al., 2014 estimated that the main phase of the CRBG eruptions, along with \u201ccryptic degassing\u201d of country rock, etc., emitted 4,090 to 5,670 billion tons of carbon over a 900,000 period. This only works out to 5-6 million tonnes of carbon per year\u2026 That\u2019s an order of magnitude less than a rounding error. Our current 10 billion tonnes per year is only equivalent to 3% of the total annual sources in the Earth\u2019s carbon budget. Self et al., 2005 found that CO<sub>2<\/sub>&nbsp;emissions from flood basalt eruptions were insignificant relative to the mass of CO<sub>2<\/sub>&nbsp;in the atmosphere and unlikely to have played a significant role in past episodes of \u201cglobal warming.\u201d Although they did note that the sulfur gas emissions and sulfate aerosols may truly have been unprecedented. However, these would have had a cooling effect on the climate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Furthermore, there is little evidence of significantly elevated atmospheric CO<sub>2<\/sub>&nbsp;associated with the CRBG.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"720\" height=\"521\" data-attachment-id=\"369694\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=369694\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image-359.png?fit=720%2C521&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"720,521\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image-359.png?fit=720%2C521&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image-359.png?resize=720%2C521&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-369694\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image-359.png?w=720&amp;ssl=1 720w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image-359.png?resize=300%2C217&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 720px) 100vw, 720px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Figure 2. Miocene atmospheric CO<sub>2<\/sub>\u00a0(older is toward the left).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Neither the MMCO nor the subsequent cooling, leading the growth of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS), appear to be driven by changes in atmospheric CO<sub>2<\/sub>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There is no evidence for either high&nbsp;<em>p<\/em>CO<sub>2<\/sub>&nbsp;during the late early Miocene climatic optimum or a sharp&nbsp;<em>p<\/em>CO<sub>2<\/sub>&nbsp;decrease associated with EAIS growth.Pagani et al., 1999<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">While the cause of the MMCO remains somewhat of a mystery (probably tectonically driven changes in oceanic circulation), the cause of the subsequent cooling (AKA Middle Miocene Climate Transition or MMCT) may have now been identified.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Our Solar System Crossed \u2018Radcliffe Wave\u2019 during Miocene Epoch, Astronomers Say<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Feb 25, 2025 by&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.sci.news\/author\/anderson\">Natali Anderson<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As our Solar System orbits the Milky Way, it encounters various environments, including dense regions of the interstellar medium. These encounters can expose parts of the Solar System to the interstellar medium, while also increasing the flow of interstellar dust into the Solar System and Earth\u2019s atmosphere. The discovery of new Galactic structures, such as the 9,000-light-year-long Radcliffe wave, raises the question of whether the Sun has encountered any of them. According to new research, the Solar System\u2019s trajectory intersected the Radcliffe wave in the Orion star-forming region between 15 and 12 million years ago (Miocene epoch). Notably, this period coincides with the Middle Miocene climate transition on Earth, providing an interdisciplinary link with paleoclimatology.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">[\u2026]<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.sci.news\/astronomy\/radcliffe-wave-07995.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Radcliffe wave<\/a>&nbsp;is a narrow sinusoidal gas structure, which comprises many known star-forming cloud complexes, such as CMa, Orion, Taurus, Perseus, Cepheus, North America Nebula, and Cygnus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This gas structure, with an estimated mass of 3 million solar masses, appears to&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.sci.news\/astronomy\/oscillating-radcliffe-wave-12719.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">coherently oscillate<\/a>&nbsp;like a traveling wave and it is thought to be part of the Milky Way\u2019s spiral structure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cImagine it like a ship sailing through varying conditions at sea,\u201d said Dr. Efrem Maconi, a doctoral student at the University of Vienna.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cOur Sun encountered a region of higher gas density as it passed through the Radcliffe wave in the Orion constellation.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">[\u2026]<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sci.news\/astronomy\/solar-system-radcliffe-wave-passage-miocene-epoch-13698.html#:~:text=According%20to%20new%20research%2C%20the,an%20interdisciplinary%20link%20with%20paleoclimatology.\">Sci.News<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The paper,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.aanda.org\/articles\/aa\/full_html\/2025\/02\/aa52061-24\/aa52061-24.html\">Maconi et al., 2025<\/a>, was recently published in the open access journal&nbsp;<em>Astronomy &amp; Astrophysics<\/em>. The authors were very careful to not draw sweeping conclusions, however the correlation between our solar system\u2019s Radcliffe Wave transit and the MMCT is very interesting.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"720\" height=\"521\" data-attachment-id=\"369697\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=369697\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image-361.png?fit=720%2C521&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"720,521\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image-361.png?fit=720%2C521&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image-361.png?resize=720%2C521&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-369697\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image-361.png?w=720&amp;ssl=1 720w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image-361.png?resize=300%2C217&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 720px) 100vw, 720px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Figure 3. Miocene climate reconstruction from Zachos et al., 2001 (older is toward the left).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Here are the Miocene temperature and CO<sub>2<\/sub>\u00a0reconstructions plotted together:<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"720\" height=\"435\" data-attachment-id=\"369700\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=369700\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image-363.png?fit=720%2C435&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"720,435\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image-363.png?fit=720%2C435&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image-363.png?resize=720%2C435&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-369700\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image-363.png?w=720&amp;ssl=1 720w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image-363.png?resize=300%2C181&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 720px) 100vw, 720px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Figure 4. Miocene temperatures and atmospheric CO<sub>2<\/sub>\u00a0(older is toward the left).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Radcliffe Wave transit certainly appears to be more likely to have influenced the MMCT than a decline in atmospheric CO<sub>2<\/sub>. The notion of celestial climate drivers is not new. The concept is similar to that proposed by Nir Shaviv and Jan Veizer in their 2003&nbsp;<em>GSA Today<\/em>&nbsp;paper.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Atmospheric levels of CO<sub>2<\/sub>\u00a0are commonly assumed to be the main driver of global climate. Independently, empirical evidence suggests that the galactic cosmic ray flux (CRF) is linked to climate variability. Both drivers are presently discussed in the context of daily to millennial variations. To the extent that they actually exist, they should also operate over geological time scales. Here we analyse the reconstructed low-latitude sea surface temperature over the Phanerozoic (past 545 Myr) and compare it with the variable CRF reaching the Earth and with the reconstructed partial pressure of atmospheric CO<sub>2<\/sub>\u00a0(pCO<sub>2<\/sub>). We find that at least 66% of the variance in the reconstructed temperature trend can be attributed to CRF variations arising from solar system passages through the spiral arms of the galaxy, an observation that enables us to estimate the CRF\/temperature relationship. Assuming that the entire residual variance in temperature is due solely to the CO<sub>2<\/sub>\u00a0greenhouse effect, or that one of the reconstructed Phanerozoic pCO<sub>2<\/sub>\u00a0trends is validated, we can place an upper limit to the long-term \u201cequilibrium\u201d warming effect of CO<sub>2<\/sub>, one which is potentially lower than that based on general circulation models (GCMs).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/stephenschneider.stanford.edu\/Publications\/PDF_Papers\/shaviv-veizer-03.pdf\">Shaviv &amp; Veizer, 2003<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">After incorporating their \u201ccelestial driver\u201d model, Shaviv &amp; Veizer estimated that the maximum equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) was 1.9 \u00baC per doubling of atmospheric CO<sub>2<\/sub>, with a most likely value of 0.5 \u00baC per doubling. Unknown celestial climate drivers may be the reason that&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/wattsupwiththat.com\/2021\/07\/30\/climate-scientists-realize-models-yield-implausibly-hot-forecasts-of-future-warming\/\">ECS estimates<\/a>&nbsp;derived from paleoclimatology data are nearly twice that of those derived from contemporaneous instrumental data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Radcliffe Wave was only recently discovered (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.radcliffe.harvard.edu\/radcliffe-25\/wave-moment\">2019<\/a>), even though it is relatively close (~400 light years) to the current position of our solar system. It was an \u201cunknown unknown\u201d potential climate change driver before the publication of Maconi et al., 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">How many other \u201cunknown unknowns\u201d are out there?<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"540\" height=\"405\" data-attachment-id=\"369702\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=369702\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image-365.png?fit=540%2C405&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"540,405\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image-365.png?fit=540%2C405&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image-365.png?resize=540%2C405&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-369702\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image-365.png?w=540&amp;ssl=1 540w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image-365.png?resize=300%2C225&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image-365.png?resize=400%2C300&amp;ssl=1 400w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image-365.png?resize=200%2C150&amp;ssl=1 200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 540px) 100vw, 540px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Figure 5. You only find what you\u2019re looking for. (<a href=\"https:\/\/judithcurry.com\/2014\/09\/16\/jc-at-the-national-press-club\/\">JC at the National Press\u00a0Club<\/a>)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">References<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Armstrong McKay, David, Toby Tyrrell, Paul A. Wilson, &amp; Gavin Foster. (2014).&nbsp;<strong>\u201cEstimating the impact of the cryptic degassing of Large Igneous Provinces: A mid-Miocene case-study\u201d<\/strong>.&nbsp;<em>Earth and Planetary Science Letters<\/em>. 403. 254\u2013262. 10.1016\/j.epsl.2014.06.040. Special thanks to David Armstrong McKay for kindly sending me a copy of his paper.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Kasbohm, Jennifer, and Blair Schoene.&nbsp;<strong>\u201cRapid Eruption of the Columbia River Flood Basalt and Correlation with the Mid-Miocene Climate Optimum.\u201d<\/strong>&nbsp;<em>Science Advances<\/em>, American Association for the Advancement of Science, 1 Sept. 2018, advances.sciencemag.org\/content\/4\/9\/eaat8223.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Maconi, E., J. Alves, C. Swiggum, S. Ratzenb\u00f6ck, J. Gro\u00dfschedl, P. K\u00f6hler, N. Miret-Roig, S. Meingast, R. Konietzka, C. Zucker, A. Goodman, M. Lombardi, G. Knorr, G. Lohmann, J. C. Forbes, A. Burkert and M. Opher.&nbsp;<strong>\u201cThe Solar System\u2019s passage through the Radcliffe wave during the middle Miocene\u201d<\/strong>.&nbsp;<em>A&amp;A<\/em>, 694 (2025) A167 DOI: <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1051\/0004-6361\/202452061\" rel=\"nofollow\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1051\/0004-6361\/202452061<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Pagani, Mark, Michael Arthur &amp; Katherine Freeman. (1999).&nbsp;<strong>\u201cMiocene evolution of atmospheric carbon dioxide\u201d<\/strong>.&nbsp;<em>Paleoceanography<\/em>. 14. 273-292. 10.1029\/1999PA900006.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Royer, D.L., et al. 2006.&nbsp;&nbsp;<strong>\u201cTertiary Paleobotanical Atmospheric CO<sub>2<\/sub>&nbsp;Reconstruction<\/strong>. IGBP PAGES\/World Data Center for Paleoclimatology\u201d&nbsp; Data Contribution Series # 2006-021. NOAA\/NCDC Paleoclimatology Program, Boulder CO, USA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Self, Stephen &amp; Thordarson, Thorvaldur &amp; Widdowson, Mike. (2005).&nbsp;<strong>\u201cGas Fluxes from Flood Basalt Eruptions\u201d<\/strong>.&nbsp;<em>Elements<\/em>. 1. 10.2113\/gselements.1.5.283.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Shaviv, N.J. and Veizer, J. (2003)&nbsp;<strong>\u201cCelestial Driver of Phanerozoic Climate?\u201d<\/strong>.&nbsp;<em>GSA Today<\/em>, 4-10.<br><a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1130\/1052-5173(2003)013&lt;0004:CDOPC&gt;2.0.CO;2\" rel=\"nofollow\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1130\/1052-5173(2003)013&lt;0004:CDOPC&gt;2.0.CO;2<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tripati, A.K., C.D. Roberts, and R.A. Eagle. 2009.&nbsp;<strong>&nbsp;\u201cCoupling of CO<sub>2<\/sub>&nbsp;and Ice Sheet Stability Over Major Climate&nbsp;Transitions of the Last 20 Million Years\u201d<\/strong>.&nbsp;&nbsp;<em>Science<\/em>, Vol. 326, pp. 1394 1397, 4 December 2009.&nbsp; DOI: 10.1126\/science.1178296<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Zachos, J. C., Pagani, M., Sloan, L. C., Thomas, E. &amp; Billups, K.&nbsp;<strong>\u201cTrends, rhythms, and aberrations in global climate 65 Ma to present\u201d<\/strong>.&nbsp;<em>Science<\/em>&nbsp;292, 686\u2013-693 (2001).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Approximately 34 million years ago (mya), during the Early Oligocene Epoch, the Earth entered its current \u201cicehouse\u201d climate mode, with ice sheets covering Antarctica. After warming up again towards the end of the Oligocene, Earth\u2019s climate began a long cooling trend, punctuated by a brief warm period during the Late to Middle Miocene Epoch.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":369705,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818522,691829997,691818056,691820486,691833782,691822921,691833781],"class_list":{"0":"post-369691","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-atmosphere","9":"tag-carbon-dioxide-co","10":"tag-climate-change","11":"tag-cooling-effect","12":"tag-east-antarctic-ice-sheet-eais","13":"tag-equilibrium-climate-sensitivity-ecs-2","14":"tag-oligocene","16":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0Screenshot-2025-03-13-084751.png?fit=1279%2C939&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1yaL","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":382498,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=382498","url_meta":{"origin":369691,"position":0},"title":"Earth\u2019s Energy Imbalance \u2013 Part III","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/06\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"This final part of the series explores the issue of regulation of Earth\u2019s climate in light of a small, continuing imbalance between energy input from Sol, and outgoing LWIR \u2013 the so-called Earth Energy Imbalance (EEI). To reiterate important points from Parts I and II, we are told there is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Atmospheric physics\"","block_context":{"text":"Atmospheric physics","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=atmospheric-physics"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/0Screenshot-2025-06-10-131331.png?fit=1200%2C674&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/0Screenshot-2025-06-10-131331.png?fit=1200%2C674&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/0Screenshot-2025-06-10-131331.png?fit=1200%2C674&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/0Screenshot-2025-06-10-131331.png?fit=1200%2C674&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/0Screenshot-2025-06-10-131331.png?fit=1200%2C674&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":239795,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=239795","url_meta":{"origin":369691,"position":1},"title":"What Climate Crisis? Past warming has never been driven by an increase in carbon dioxide.","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"15\/01\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"For more than 80 per cent of time, Earth has been a warm wet greenhouse planet with no ice. We have a crisis of single-minded stupidity exacerbated by a dumbed-down education system supported by incessant propaganda, driven by financial interests and political activist authoritarianism.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/image-686.png?fit=1200%2C960&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/image-686.png?fit=1200%2C960&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/image-686.png?fit=1200%2C960&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/image-686.png?fit=1200%2C960&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/image-686.png?fit=1200%2C960&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":396696,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=396696","url_meta":{"origin":369691,"position":2},"title":"Guardian: \u201cA climate of unparalleled malevolence\u201d: are we on our way to the sixth major mass extinction?","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"21\/08\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Apparently, our pitiful atmospheric contribution is comparable to the 2-million-year eruption which drove the\u00a0Permian\u2013Triassic Extinction, which wiped out most life on Earth.","rel":"","context":"In \"carbon cycle\"","block_context":{"text":"carbon cycle","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=carbon-cycle"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/AQP6uLPOUVwA2L8qVvXReBc9gL46uK10e0dQTCksJNRGrlMOO4AIAa_O7_CvmsEhOAgJNZI9HLQnWTzq3nDZXTVry4QnOROwUk9uv4u_jRpp9HWarHtx8zpvT1h8CI066VM2dszRhWnf_CJCINxHq6c10bpC0g.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/AQP6uLPOUVwA2L8qVvXReBc9gL46uK10e0dQTCksJNRGrlMOO4AIAa_O7_CvmsEhOAgJNZI9HLQnWTzq3nDZXTVry4QnOROwUk9uv4u_jRpp9HWarHtx8zpvT1h8CI066VM2dszRhWnf_CJCINxHq6c10bpC0g.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/AQP6uLPOUVwA2L8qVvXReBc9gL46uK10e0dQTCksJNRGrlMOO4AIAa_O7_CvmsEhOAgJNZI9HLQnWTzq3nDZXTVry4QnOROwUk9uv4u_jRpp9HWarHtx8zpvT1h8CI066VM2dszRhWnf_CJCINxHq6c10bpC0g.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/AQP6uLPOUVwA2L8qVvXReBc9gL46uK10e0dQTCksJNRGrlMOO4AIAa_O7_CvmsEhOAgJNZI9HLQnWTzq3nDZXTVry4QnOROwUk9uv4u_jRpp9HWarHtx8zpvT1h8CI066VM2dszRhWnf_CJCINxHq6c10bpC0g.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/AQP6uLPOUVwA2L8qVvXReBc9gL46uK10e0dQTCksJNRGrlMOO4AIAa_O7_CvmsEhOAgJNZI9HLQnWTzq3nDZXTVry4QnOROwUk9uv4u_jRpp9HWarHtx8zpvT1h8CI066VM2dszRhWnf_CJCINxHq6c10bpC0g.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":239643,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=239643","url_meta":{"origin":369691,"position":3},"title":"Ian Plimer Asks, \u201eWhat Climate Crisis?\u201c","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"14\/01\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"No past warming events have been driven by an increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. No past cooling events were driven by a decrease in atmospheric carbon dioxide.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/image-634.png?fit=1200%2C848&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/image-634.png?fit=1200%2C848&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/image-634.png?fit=1200%2C848&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/image-634.png?fit=1200%2C848&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/image-634.png?fit=1200%2C848&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":383514,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=383514","url_meta":{"origin":369691,"position":4},"title":"New Study: Antarctic Ice Sheet Melt Will Lead To Widespread Cooling, Sea Ice Expansion","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"17\/06\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Scientists have counter-intuitively determined that a melting Antarctic ice sheet serves to mitigate global warming.","rel":"","context":"In \"Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS)\"","block_context":{"text":"Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=antarctic-ice-sheet-ais"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/0NOAAClimategov_Antarctica_locator_map_1860_1.png?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/0NOAAClimategov_Antarctica_locator_map_1860_1.png?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/0NOAAClimategov_Antarctica_locator_map_1860_1.png?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/0NOAAClimategov_Antarctica_locator_map_1860_1.png?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/0NOAAClimategov_Antarctica_locator_map_1860_1.png?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":367383,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=367383","url_meta":{"origin":369691,"position":5},"title":"What Really Sets the Global Climate State?","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"24\/02\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"What really does set the global climate state? The Million Year Ice Core Project (MYIC) (Follow on BlueSky), has been underway for several years, preparing to drill the oldest continuous ice core record from Antarctica. The project is a major element in the Australian Antarctic Program, led by the Australian\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Antarctica\"","block_context":{"text":"Antarctica","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=antarctica"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0ice-core-scientist-in-the-field.1600x0.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0ice-core-scientist-in-the-field.1600x0.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0ice-core-scientist-in-the-field.1600x0.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0ice-core-scientist-in-the-field.1600x0.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0ice-core-scientist-in-the-field.1600x0.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/369691","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=369691"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/369691\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":369706,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/369691\/revisions\/369706"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/369705"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=369691"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=369691"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=369691"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}