{"id":368560,"date":"2025-03-04T10:49:46","date_gmt":"2025-03-04T09:49:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=368560"},"modified":"2025-03-04T10:49:48","modified_gmt":"2025-03-04T09:49:48","slug":"seventh-carbon-budget-final-thoughts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=368560","title":{"rendered":"Seventh Carbon Budget\u2013Final Thoughts"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"
Planet Earth sunrise over cloudy ocean from outer space (3d artwork)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Paul Homewood<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Just a few final observations on the Carbon Budget:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Transport<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The targets for EVs are not a surprise, given that they are in line with the ZEV mandate and the 2030 ban on ICE vehicles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, they effectively have ruled out hydrogen powered HGVs and have set a target of 63% electric HGVs on the road by 2040, despite the fact that the technology does not exist to make it workable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is also the usual nonsense about switching to public transport and walking, with a 7% switch by 2035.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Heat Pumps<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The CCC want annual installations to hit 450,000 in 2030, and 1.5m in 2035. This will inevitably mean a ban on gas boilers by 2035 but also raises the question of how people will be forced to buy them in the interim.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Agriculture<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

CB7 demands a massive reduction in emissions of 39% relative to 2022 in the agricultural sector, and this will mean large reductions in the number of cattle and sheep, along with planting woodlands on good agricultural land.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, reducing meat and dairy production in the UK will inevitably lead to replacement by imports, with a much higher carbon footprint. The CCC therefore demand import controls and tariffs to price them out of the market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The end result will be much higher food prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In terms of numbers, they want us to eat 25% less meat by 2040, with a similar reduction in livestock herds. The effect on British farming will be catastrophic, and once again we have to ask how all of this will be enforced.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Aviation<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The CCC veered away from earlier attacks on flying, quite deliberately in my view. Otherwise, Miliband\u2019s position in the cabinet would have been untenable, given the plans for new runways at Heathrow and Gatwick. This really does prove that the CCC is not the independent body it is made out to be.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In place of demands to reduce flights and frequent flyer taxes, they call for emissions cuts of only 17% by 2040, with the emphasis on sustainable aviation fuel. The cost of this, estimated at seven times the price of kerosene, will be passed onto passengers, which they hope will reduce demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Passengers will also have to pay the full cost of \u201cengineered removals\u201d \u2013 basically direct air capture, the mammoth expensive and unproven process of taking carbon dioxide out of the air and storing it \u2013 to cover residual emissions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Hope for alternative fuels and direct air capture rely of course on technology developing, but the CCC have this ominous warning of what is to come if it does not:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Translation \u2013 limits on flights.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Holidays abroad in a few years’ time, along with much of our lives, will be controlled by the government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Just a few final observations on the Carbon Budget:<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":368571,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818444,691833641,691823159,691818198,691833640,691819751,691824345],"class_list":{"0":"post-368560","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-agriculture","9":"tag-aviation","10":"tag-climate-change-committee-ccc","11":"tag-heat-pumps","12":"tag-higher-food-prices","13":"tag-taxes","14":"tag-transport","16":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0Future-sky.jpg?fit=1728%2C1099&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1xSw","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":385202,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=385202","url_meta":{"origin":368560,"position":0},"title":"Under-Reported \u201cOld\u201d Carbon is Not the Source of Increases in Atmospheric CO2","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"26\/06\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"A\u00a0recent paper\u00a0published in the Journal Nature by Dean et al. provides an interesting and compelling argument that a significant source of atmospheric CO2\u00a0has been underestimated by carbon budget models. The study,\u00a0Old carbon routed from land to the atmosphere by global river systems\u00a0looks at the origin of the CO2\u00a0released by river\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Atmospheric CO2\"","block_context":{"text":"Atmospheric CO2","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=atmospheric-co2"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0Carbon_cycle-cute_diagram-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C825&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0Carbon_cycle-cute_diagram-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C825&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0Carbon_cycle-cute_diagram-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C825&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0Carbon_cycle-cute_diagram-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C825&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0Carbon_cycle-cute_diagram-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C825&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":372880,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=372880","url_meta":{"origin":368560,"position":1},"title":"Examining the Global Carbon Project\u2019s Estimates of CO2 Sources and Sinks, 1959-2023","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"31\/03\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"By choosing the \u201cbest\u201d models and estimates of CO2 fluxes (those which best explain year-to-year changes in atmospheric CO2 content as measured at Mauna Loa, HI) for the period 1959-2023 as provided by the Global Carbon Project, a multiple linear regression of yearly Mauna Loa CO2 changes against those \u201cbest\u201d\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"carbon dioxide (CO\u2082)\"","block_context":{"text":"carbon dioxide (CO\u2082)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=carbon-dioxide-co%e2%82%82"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0roywspencer_13617_hot_summer_day_with_puffy_clouds_over_a_corn__82601fd1-84ed-4754-bc55-d3fd32ffe0f1.webp?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0roywspencer_13617_hot_summer_day_with_puffy_clouds_over_a_corn__82601fd1-84ed-4754-bc55-d3fd32ffe0f1.webp?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0roywspencer_13617_hot_summer_day_with_puffy_clouds_over_a_corn__82601fd1-84ed-4754-bc55-d3fd32ffe0f1.webp?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0roywspencer_13617_hot_summer_day_with_puffy_clouds_over_a_corn__82601fd1-84ed-4754-bc55-d3fd32ffe0f1.webp?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0roywspencer_13617_hot_summer_day_with_puffy_clouds_over_a_corn__82601fd1-84ed-4754-bc55-d3fd32ffe0f1.webp?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":383506,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=383506","url_meta":{"origin":368560,"position":2},"title":"Settled Science Springs a Leak: Rivers Reveal the Carbon Cycle\u2019s Dirty Secret","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"17\/06\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Let that sink in. 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