{"id":368398,"date":"2025-03-03T08:42:40","date_gmt":"2025-03-03T07:42:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=368398"},"modified":"2025-03-03T08:42:42","modified_gmt":"2025-03-03T07:42:42","slug":"cccs-carbon-budget-does-not-add-up","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=368398","title":{"rendered":"CCC\u2019s Carbon Budget Does Not Add\u00a0Up"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Paul Homewood<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"
https:\/\/www.theccc.org.uk\/publication\/the-seventh-carbon-budget\/#publication-downloads<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

As promised, an in depth look at the Seventh Carbon Budget, which runs from 2038 to 2042.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Electricity Supply<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Overall, the CCC\u2019s report seems to have less detail and technical input than previous budgets, and electricity supply is no exception.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It recommends a capacity mix, for instance, but little insight into the implications for the grid.  It has Emma Pinchbeck\u2019s fingerprints all over it, given her background as head of the lobbyist Renewable UK.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Incredibly nowhere does the document mention \u201cpeak demand\u201d at all, except for this comment:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The object of the Budget report is clearly to force through as much renewable generation as possible, regardless of any other considerations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But we do know from last year\u2019s FES report that peak demand is projected to rise to 81 GW in 2035 and 102 GW in 2040. And as FES clarifies, these figures are after allowing for smart EV charging and residential demand side response and therefore must be treated as optimistic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CCC\u2019s plan, we will only have 52 GW of reliable capacity in 2040, nearly half of that being unabated gas power. We know that there are times when wind power runs at 5% or less of capacity, meaning we might get five or six gigawatts at most at these times. We also know that solar power is virtually nonexistent in mid-winter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even if we could rely on interconnectors, which we most certainly cannot. we will still be well short of the supply needed. Storage would mainly only be enough for a couple of hours. (CCC also assume 7 GW\/ 419 GWh of unproven medium-term storage, enough to plug the gap for a few hours).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That leaves the frightening prospect of DSR, which the CCC estimate at 29 GW. (And as we have seen, the FES already allows for some DSR. Putting it bluntly, the CCC propose that we take up to a third of demand off the grid at times \u2013 rolling blackouts, in other words.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And let\u2019s not fool ourselves that this would be merely switching demand from 5pm to 7pm, or even night. With the DSR already built into the FES, charging of EVs at night, spreading out heat pump loads and so on, daily demand in cold weather would probably range from about 80 GW to 100 GW. In other words, even at times of lowest demand, there would not be enough supply, and certainly no surplus to recharge batteries and other forms of storage.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Yet remarkably the CCC do not even recognise this as a problem, merely commenting:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

I\u2019ll cover the other sections later.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Overall the CCC\u2019s report seems to have less detail and technical input than previous budgets, and electricity supply is no exception.<\/p>\n

It recommends a capacity mix, for instance, but little insight into the implications for the grid. It has Emma Pinchbeck\u2019s fingerprints all over it, given her background as head of the lobbyist Renewable UK.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":368410,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691823159,691832239,691823770,691818439,691823379,691833568,691820267],"class_list":{"0":"post-368398","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-climate-change-committee-ccc","9":"tag-electricity-supply","10":"tag-emma-pinchbeck","11":"tag-ev-charging","12":"tag-rolling-blackouts","13":"tag-seventh-carbon-budget","14":"tag-storage","16":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0Corbis-RM-chemical-works-and-oil-refinery-1349x700-1.jpg?fit=1349%2C700&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1xPU","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":368143,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=368143","url_meta":{"origin":368398,"position":0},"title":"The Seventh Carbon\u00a0Budget","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"01\/03\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The Seventh Carbon Budget, covering the period 2038 to 2042, has been well covered by the media, so you are probably aware of the major recommendations.","rel":"","context":"In \"ban on gas boilers\"","block_context":{"text":"ban on gas boilers","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=ban-on-gas-boilers"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/257ebaf06c40cf493803244410c72ff8.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/257ebaf06c40cf493803244410c72ff8.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/257ebaf06c40cf493803244410c72ff8.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/257ebaf06c40cf493803244410c72ff8.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/257ebaf06c40cf493803244410c72ff8.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":346275,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=346275","url_meta":{"origin":368398,"position":1},"title":"Emma Pinchbeck To Head Up\u00a0CCC","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/10\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Just what we need -\u00a0 a renewable lobbyist taking over at the Committee on Climate Change","rel":"","context":"In \"Committee on Climate Change\"","block_context":{"text":"Committee on Climate Change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=committee-on-climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0Emma-Pinchbeck_Photo_2020-e1607070418890.webp?fit=1200%2C846&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0Emma-Pinchbeck_Photo_2020-e1607070418890.webp?fit=1200%2C846&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0Emma-Pinchbeck_Photo_2020-e1607070418890.webp?fit=1200%2C846&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0Emma-Pinchbeck_Photo_2020-e1607070418890.webp?fit=1200%2C846&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0Emma-Pinchbeck_Photo_2020-e1607070418890.webp?fit=1200%2C846&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":348591,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=348591","url_meta":{"origin":368398,"position":2},"title":"Renewable Lobbyist Promoted Renewable\u00a0Energy!","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"23\/10\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Emma Pinchbeck is now head of the Climate Change Committee. Six years ago, when she was Executive Director of Renewable UK, she proclaimed that CfDs would \u201csecure low-cost energy for consumers\u201d","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate Change Committee (CCC)\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate Change Committee (CCC)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change-committee-ccc"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0EmmaPinchbeck.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0EmmaPinchbeck.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0EmmaPinchbeck.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0EmmaPinchbeck.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0EmmaPinchbeck.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":360924,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=360924","url_meta":{"origin":368398,"position":3},"title":"Complacency at the Climate Change\u00a0Committee","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"07\/01\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Listening to the PM programme on BBC radio 4 this evening, I was somewhat taken aback by an interview conducted by Evan Davis. His interviewee was Emma Pinchbeck, the recently appointed Chief Executive of the UK\u2019s Climate Change Committee (CCC).","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate Change Committee (CCC)\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate Change Committee (CCC)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change-committee-ccc"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0Emma-Pinchbeck-EP.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0Emma-Pinchbeck-EP.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0Emma-Pinchbeck-EP.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0Emma-Pinchbeck-EP.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, 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