{"id":367610,"date":"2025-02-25T15:46:13","date_gmt":"2025-02-25T14:46:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=367610"},"modified":"2025-02-25T15:46:15","modified_gmt":"2025-02-25T14:46:15","slug":"wrong-the-guardian-there-are-no-identifiable-climate-tipping-points","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=367610","title":{"rendered":"Wrong, The Guardian, There Are No Identifiable \u201cClimate Tipping Points\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From ClimateRealism<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Linnea Lueken<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

A recent article posted by\u00a0The Guardian<\/em>\u00a0discusses funding given to UK research groups in an effort to track potential \u201cclimate tipping points\u201d so forecasts can be made to warn about upcoming catastrophes. The premise that we are approaching dangerous and unprecedented climate tipping points is unsupported by history or present data. The planet has been through periods of massive change many times in the past. There is no evidence that there is a magic temperature at which positive feedbacks will spiral out of control, and none of the myriad conditions some researchers have pointed to as dangerous indicate a threat of\u201d tipping\u201d over some imagined edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The article, \u201cEarly warning system for climate tipping points given \u00a381m kickstart<\/a>,\u201d describes funding given to 27 teams of researchers by the U.K.\u2019s Advanced Research<\/a> and Invention Agency (Aria). According to The Guardian<\/em>, this is an \u201cattempt to develop an early warning system for climate tipping points will combine fleets of drones, cosmic ray detection and the patterns of plankton blooms with artificial intelligence and the most detailed computer models to date.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The goal is to detect signals \u201cthat forewarn of the greatest climate catastrophes the climate crisis could trigger,\u201d describing these conditions as climate tipping points which \u201coccur when global temperature is pushed beyond a threshold, leading to unstoppable changes in the climate system.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The two main tipping points that the program will focus on are the alleged approaching collapse of both the Greenland ice sheet and critical ocean currents in the North Atlantic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trends on both of these supposed harbingers of climate change have been regularly misdescribed or exaggerated by the media in recent decades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To begin with, the so-called climate threshold is an arbitrary value in the first place. The most common threshold value for global average temperature is 1.5\u00b0C above pre-industrial temperatures, but this is not a scientifically derived value,<\/a> despite being cited frequently by the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. It was selected for political purposes by a political panel. Europe has long surpassed that value, with a temperature record<\/a> going back to the 1700s showing warming of over 2.0\u00b0C since then, with no catastrophic results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This being said, warming has occurred, and as a result of that of the Greenland ice sheet has experienced some melting, which should be expected as the planet transitions out of an ice age. Climate Realism<\/em> has covered Greenland\u2019s ice trends more than a dozen times<\/a>, and the fact is that the ice mass loss is tiny compared to the full ice mass of Greenland, and what melts in the summer months refreezes over winter, amounting to a very low net ice loss over time. This is no sign or indication of a looming collapse, and neither physics nor research into ice dynamics indicate that there should be.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The collapse of the North Atlantic Ocean current is again another tipping point that is often hyped in the media while the full context is conveniently left out of the discussion. Indeed, researchers can\u2019t even agree on what, if any, types of changes in the North Atlantic current are occurring. Some research suggests the current has slowed, other research that it has speeded up, and still other research suggests that there hasn\u2019t been any significant change at all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Last year around this same time, scientists and the media joined forces to warn readers that the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) was nearing collapse. This alarming warning was based on a computer model output that suggested the AMOC may collapse 1,758 years from now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As meteorologist Anthony Watts points out in \u201cNo, CNN and Other Media Outlets, Climate Change Is Not Causing the Ocean Circulation to Collapse,\u201d<\/a> this type of slowdown of AMOC is not unprecedented, and in fact it resulted in better conditions for humanity:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Younger Dryas Climate Event<\/a> occurred about 12,900 to 11,700 years ago. Many of the climate changes related to that event were likely a response to increased freshwater discharge to the North Atlantic and the reduction in AMOC strength. That basically signaled the end of the most recent ice age, beginning the time when Earth became more habitable for humans, and sedentary agriculture began. Shortly after that, in geologic time the blinking of an eye, the first nascent, large-scale civilizations began developing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Earth\u2019s multiple climate systems are complex and connected by many mechanisms which are only poorly understood. Proof of this fact is made quite clear by the contradictory studies that seem to whiplash between predicting a slowing or speeding up AMOC<\/a>, depending on what data is used and what assumptions are built into the modelling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The main theme for all of Earth\u2019s history has been change, continuously. Some of those changes, like transitions into<\/em> ice ages, are large scale and harmful to life. The modest warming of the past century-plus is not in that category. Sadly, it is pretty unlikely that funding for climate alarm studies will result in anything other than more alarmist projections spun out of flawed computer models. However, if we are very lucky, data collected over the next decades will help to assuage the fears of researchers and The Guardian<\/em>\u2019s reporters, as it becomes clearer that climate change poses no existential threat to life or human civilization.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A recent article posted by\u00a0The Guardian\u00a0discusses funding given to UK research groups in an effort to track potential \u201cclimate tipping points\u201d so forecasts can be made to warn about upcoming catastrophes. The premise that we are approaching dangerous and unprecedented climate tipping points is unsupported by history or present data. The planet has been through periods of massive change many times in the past. There is no evidence that there is a magic temperature at which positive feedbacks will spiral out of control, and none of the myriad conditions some researchers have pointed to as dangerous indicate a threat of\u201d tipping\u201d over some imagined edge.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":367612,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691821384,691825220,691819102,691818252,691819051,691833546,691818262,691833547],"class_list":["post-367610","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-atlantic-meridional-overturning-circulation-amoc","tag-climate-tipping-points","tag-computer-models","tag-greenland","tag-north-atlantic-ocean","tag-researchers","tag-the-guardian","tag-u-k-s-advanced-research-and-invention-agency-aria","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0Screenshot-2025-02-25-153746.png?fit=1493%2C765&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1xDc","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":270980,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=270980","url_meta":{"origin":367610,"position":0},"title":"The Guardian\u2019s (ocean) circulation problem","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"08\/02\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Is there no loyalty among climate extremists? The Guardian makes a mistake about the fundamental difference between the Gulf Stream and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and suddenly everyone is on its case, some accusing it of sloppy reporting, others demanding a correction of its fake news, (which didn\u2019t\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"AMOC\"","block_context":{"text":"AMOC","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=amoc"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/OIG-98-1.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/OIG-98-1.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/OIG-98-1.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/OIG-98-1.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":411179,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=411179","url_meta":{"origin":367610,"position":1},"title":"The Guardian and Guterres Are Wrong: Science Shows No Climate \u2018Tipping Points\u2019","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"11\/01\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"A recent article in\u00a0The Guardian, \u201cChange course now: humanity has missed 1.5C climate target, says UN head,\u201d claims that the planet is in grave danger of passing climate \u201ctipping points,\u201d as it is now inevitable that 1.5\u00b0C warming will be breached. Although 1.5\u2103 of warming may be locked in if\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"1.5\u00b0C warming\"","block_context":{"text":"1.5\u00b0C warming","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=1-5c-warming"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/00Screenshot-2025-11-01-150444.png?fit=1200%2C763&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/00Screenshot-2025-11-01-150444.png?fit=1200%2C763&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/00Screenshot-2025-11-01-150444.png?fit=1200%2C763&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/00Screenshot-2025-11-01-150444.png?fit=1200%2C763&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/00Screenshot-2025-11-01-150444.png?fit=1200%2C763&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":409841,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=409841","url_meta":{"origin":367610,"position":2},"title":"Climate Tipping Points \u201cMay Already Have Arrived\u201d Claims New Report \u2013 Just in Time for COP30","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/23\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Also last week, the\u00a0Guardian\u00a0commented on the Green Blob-funded \u2018Global Tipping Points Report 2025\u2019 and reported its contention that the planet\u2019s first catastrophic\u00a0climate tipping point\u00a0had been reached with \u201ccoral reefs facing widespread dieback\u201d. About time too,\u00a0Guardianistas might have felt. 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Then I heard a strange noise\u2019 \u2013 This is climate breakdown,\u201d by Ajit Niranjan, presents the tragic story of a family caught in the Valencia floods of October 2024, framing the disaster as\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Ajit Niranjan\"","block_context":{"text":"Ajit Niranjan","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=ajit-niranjan"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0AQPU-YK0Q4NRnbTvedqbUezG2B3PaYnGZbAeXUc3YrS9GAcMEosNTQU0eFGekBm50WH_t2zuG5HOg98WVzglQ3dwssG2SG0ci0Z6G-tL3SpaW2EhY5yKtSV_Ul3G1lY-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C793&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0AQPU-YK0Q4NRnbTvedqbUezG2B3PaYnGZbAeXUc3YrS9GAcMEosNTQU0eFGekBm50WH_t2zuG5HOg98WVzglQ3dwssG2SG0ci0Z6G-tL3SpaW2EhY5yKtSV_Ul3G1lY-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C793&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0AQPU-YK0Q4NRnbTvedqbUezG2B3PaYnGZbAeXUc3YrS9GAcMEosNTQU0eFGekBm50WH_t2zuG5HOg98WVzglQ3dwssG2SG0ci0Z6G-tL3SpaW2EhY5yKtSV_Ul3G1lY-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C793&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0AQPU-YK0Q4NRnbTvedqbUezG2B3PaYnGZbAeXUc3YrS9GAcMEosNTQU0eFGekBm50WH_t2zuG5HOg98WVzglQ3dwssG2SG0ci0Z6G-tL3SpaW2EhY5yKtSV_Ul3G1lY-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C793&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0AQPU-YK0Q4NRnbTvedqbUezG2B3PaYnGZbAeXUc3YrS9GAcMEosNTQU0eFGekBm50WH_t2zuG5HOg98WVzglQ3dwssG2SG0ci0Z6G-tL3SpaW2EhY5yKtSV_Ul3G1lY-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C793&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":274506,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=274506","url_meta":{"origin":367610,"position":5},"title":"What Has Happened to the\u00a0Guardian?","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"08\/19\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The man who reads nothing at all is better educated than the man who reads nothing but newspapers Thomas Jefferson","rel":"","context":"In \"2022 flooding\"","block_context":{"text":"2022 flooding","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=2022-flooding"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/OIG-59.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/OIG-59.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/OIG-59.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/OIG-59.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/367610","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=367610"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/367610\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":367616,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/367610\/revisions\/367616"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/367612"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=367610"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=367610"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=367610"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}