{"id":367559,"date":"2025-02-25T09:20:44","date_gmt":"2025-02-25T08:20:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=367559"},"modified":"2025-02-25T09:20:47","modified_gmt":"2025-02-25T08:20:47","slug":"california-rise-and-fall","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=367559","title":{"rendered":"California:\u00a0 Rise and Fall"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Guest Essay\u00a0by\u00a0Kip Hansen<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is not about California\u2019s nutty politics \u2013 but it could have been. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is about Vertical Land Motion (VLM <\/strong>hereafter).  VLM is the movement of the surface of the land further from the center of the Earth (up, a rise or uplift<\/em>) or closer to the center of the Earth (down, a fall or subsidence<\/em>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For many locations in North America, VLM is associated with\u00a0Glacial Isostatic Rebound<\/a>.\u00a0 Basically, as the massive weight of ice on the northern part of northern continents melted away, that portion of the continental that had been depressed by all that weight, had been rebounding, rising.\u00a0 At the same time, the southern part of that continental sheet, having been teeter-tottered or bulged upward during the Ice Age, is moving back down.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

On the U.S. East coast, the land mass north of Boston, MA , which is approximately the hinge point,\u00a0 is uplifting and the land mass south of Boston is subsiding.\u00a0 On the U.S. west coast, parts of Alaska are uplifting and points south are subsiding, from the effects of Glacial Isostatic Rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Note that all the Relative Sea Level\u00a0Rise<\/em>\u00a0arrows on the California coast are in the \u201c0 to 1 foot per century\u201d range \u2013 that is VLM\u00a0+<\/strong>\u00a0Absolute Sea Level.\u00a0 Absolute sea level is understood to be about 1.7 to 2.0 mm\/yr \u2013 7 to 8 inches per century. \u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When uplift of the coast exceeds slow and steady sea level rise, Relative Sea Level<\/strong> falls.   When coastal  land subsides and absolute sea level<\/strong> rises, the effect is additive, and Relative Sea Level rises faster.<\/a>  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

California has a lot of VLM, both subsidence and uplift, and some of it pretty extreme.\u00a0\u00a0A recent study, that has measured VLM in California in several different ways<\/a>, shows this map:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The most obvious feature is the serious major subsidence in the Central Valley \u2013 the dark blue blotch that runs diagonally across the state.  The coastal areas<\/em> are generally neutral and pale blue-ish, indicating either no movement or slightly subsiding.  But, it is important to look at the scales.  There are two scales given. The top scale if for large scale subsidence \u2013 darker blues through greens to lighter colors.  This scale is for  +\/- 100 to 200 (or greater) mm\/year. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The lower scale is in single digit<\/em> mm\/year, +\/- 4.    This lower scale of subsidence, 0 down to -4 mm\/yr, is equivalent in magnitude to the rise in absolute sea level<\/em><\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

And that is the important point.\u00a0\u00a0 The coastal portion of the state of California is generally subsiding at a rate of 1 to 4 millimeters per year.\u00a0 At the same time, it is generally understood that absolute sea level, often called \u201cglobal sea level\u201d, is rising at about 2 to 3 mm\/yr [when using global tide gauges for the calculation].\u00a0\u00a0 In effect then, Relative Sea Level Rise along much of the coast of California can be said to be \u2018doubled\u2019 by subsidence.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To be blunt, the Realtive (or Absolute) Sea Level Rise of 2 to 3 mm\/yr is not an alarming or dangerous amount. In a century, 100 years, 3 mm\/yr comes to 30 cm or 1 foot.  Most areas have already seen that 1 foot of SLR over the previous century without disastrous effects.  To counter-act that 1 foot , those 30 cms, of sea surface rise, a sea wall or dock curbing  16 inches (440 mm) high, made of two standard 8x8x16 inch concrete blocks (in the EU, 215mm x 215mmx440mm) suffices.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

And if we double that amount<\/em> of Relative Sea Level Rise, say to 6 mm\/yr, half of that being subsidence, the total rise comes to 24 inches, 2 feet or 60 cm. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now, 2 feet, that\u2019s getting to be something to talk about for locales that have infrastructure built far too close to current sea level or too close to the sea level <\/em>of the past<\/em>, which is far more common.   And for locales that have very little altitude above sea level altogether, such as low-lying lands, filled salt marshes turned into sea-level-plus-1-foot neighborhoods of houses with backyard docks on canals and other high-risk areas.  Those low-lying  areas are often spoken of as being \u201cat risk from flooding by sea level rise and storm surge\u201d.  And they are, and they already were, even a century ago.  They are more at risk today and will be even more at risk after another 100 years. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The reason they are at risk is their relative altitude above sea level.  One foot, two feet, five feet, six feet \u2013 the same in meters \u2013 it doesn\u2019t matter.  Storm surge can be as high as 14 feet \u2013 over 4 meters.   The surface of the sea will reliably rise about one foot \u2013 30 cm \u2013 over the next century and to that must be added<\/em> any local subsidence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But what they are not at risk from<\/em> is Climate Change<\/em>.  The best long-term studies of relative sea levels around the world show that sea level has had a long steady and slow rise since man has been actively measuring it. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The claims that melting land ice is a major contributor have not been shown to be true.   Water from melting land adds to the absolute sea level rise that is caused by expansion of the sea water due to the gentle warming of the oceans as the world continues to come up and out of the Little Ice Age.   By current rather vague calculations, melting land ice \u2014 glaciers, Greenland, Antarctica \u2013 may be<\/em> adding up to 1 mm a year \u2013  few inches, 10 centimeters per century.    The uncertainty stems from the absolute uncertainty of Antarctic ice mass:   is it growing or declining, adding mass or losing mass?  Even NASA, which measures Antarctic Ice Mass is not sure, it has two teams that find totally different answers<\/a>, both answers derived from the same data sets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To fight Climate Change<\/em> the IPCC and the UN (and everyone else on the bandwagon) say we must decarbonize our societies, we must quit adding CO2<\/sub>   to the atmosphere regardless of cost.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Combating Climate Change<\/em> may or may not be a good idea \u2013 I don\u2019t think it is \u2013 but one thing it will not do<\/em> is slow or stop sea level rise, not even the fraction of sea level rise actually caused by warming seas.  Reducing CO2 <\/sub>emissions, atmospheric concentrations of GHGs  or sequestering CO2 <\/sub>underground or in rocks certainly cannot change the portion of relative sea level rise caused by subsidence. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Spending tax payer\u2019s money, or society\u2019s wealth, to fight Climate Change<\/em> will do nothing to prevent today\u2019s or tomorrow\u2019s problems stemming from rising seas.   Those funds must be spent on adaption to and mitigation of any negative effects of rising seas. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wild and alarming \u201cpredictions\u201d of meters of Climate Change-<\/em>driven sea level rise \u201cby 2025\u201d \u2013 in the next 30 years \u2013  are scientifically ludicrous as such a future is literally impossible.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is however possible to drive very local Relative Sea Level changes by seemingly impossible amounts through human activities such as  extracting water, pumping water out of aquifers below the surface,  or pumping up  huge volumes of oil, can cause substantial subsidence and conversely, forcing volumes of water or gases (such as in fracking)  down into the Earth under pressure (causing uplift). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bottom Lines:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1.  The seas and oceans are rising, have been rising and will continue to rise until the planet again enters a period of cooling, similar to the Little Ice Age or a real full-blown ice age.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2.   Current rates of sea level rise will not be changing much.  If a locality is not currently at risk, it will not be at risk in the future \u2013 sea level rise is too slow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3.  Human infrastructure already at risk will continue to be at risk and that risk will increase in the future \u2013 slowly and steadily.  Such localities should spend money and effort on adaption and mitigation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

4.  Vertical Land Motion \u2013 up and down \u2013 are important factors for localities to consider when looking at risks from relative sea level rise.  Nothing in the fight against Climate Change<\/em> will effect VLM. Some of the VLM can be mitigated; such as ceasing to extract fresh water or oil close to the sea.  Some of the VLM-caused Relative Sea Level Rise must be dealt with by adaptation \u2013 raising structures, building seawalls and otherwise protecting infrastructure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

5.  Alarming projections of dangerously high near-future sea level rise are not possible, thus the dissemination of those projections must be seen as politically-motivated Climate Alarm propaganda.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

# # # # #<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Author\u2019s Comment:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is nothing particularly new in this essay, except for the very interesting study on California VLM \u2013 look at the Central Valley.  Some of that subsidence may be self-correcting as atmospheric rivers bring lots of new water to recharge the underlying aquifers.  But those aquifers have been being pumped out at tremendous rates to irrigate fields, orchards and vineyards for a long time. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

But, in general, coastal California has little to worry about \u2013 most seafront areas are backed by bluffs, huge remnant sand dunes in some places like Manhattan Beach, that rise rapidly, like most of Los Angeles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There are areas around the edges of San Francisco Bay that are just filled wetlands right at sea level and then you have the Sacramento River Delta.  The surface of the Sacramento River at Washington Lake in Sacramento<\/a>, 87 miles across the Bay and upstream,  is only 6 feet above San Francisco Bay.  They are potentially in trouble now. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rising Sea Level scares are just that \u2013 scares.  It is far past time to begin to adapt and mitigate. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thanks for reading.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

# # # # #<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This is not about California\u2019s nutty politics \u2013 but it could have been.\u00a0<\/p>\n

This is about Vertical Land Motion (VLM\u00a0hereafter).\u00a0 VLM is the movement of the surface of the land further from the center of the Earth (up, a rise or\u00a0uplift) or closer to the center of the Earth (down, a fall or\u00a0subsidence).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":367566,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691833540,691818068,691818056,691833539],"class_list":{"0":"post-367559","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-absolute-sea-level","9":"tag-california","10":"tag-climate-change","11":"tag-vertical-land-motion-vlm","13":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0santamonica.jpg?fit=3840%2C2160&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1xCn","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":381471,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=381471","url_meta":{"origin":367559,"position":0},"title":"Sea Level Rise Hype from Climatists Lying by Omission\u00a0Again","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"04\/06\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Sea-level rise threatens coastal communities even if global emissions drop.","rel":"","context":"In \"Climatists\"","block_context":{"text":"Climatists","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climatists"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/2Screenshot-2025-02-16-160758.png?fit=1200%2C593&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/2Screenshot-2025-02-16-160758.png?fit=1200%2C593&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/2Screenshot-2025-02-16-160758.png?fit=1200%2C593&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/2Screenshot-2025-02-16-160758.png?fit=1200%2C593&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/2Screenshot-2025-02-16-160758.png?fit=1200%2C593&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":339364,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=339364","url_meta":{"origin":367559,"position":1},"title":"Variation of 50-Year Relative Sea Level Trends\u00a0 \u2014 Northeast United States","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"12\/08\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"What exactly is this? 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The solid horizontal line represents the linear relative\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"NASA\"","block_context":{"text":"NASA","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=nasa"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/0Extreme-Sea-Level-Rise-scaled-1.webp?fit=1200%2C836&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/0Extreme-Sea-Level-Rise-scaled-1.webp?fit=1200%2C836&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/0Extreme-Sea-Level-Rise-scaled-1.webp?fit=1200%2C836&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/0Extreme-Sea-Level-Rise-scaled-1.webp?fit=1200%2C836&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/0Extreme-Sea-Level-Rise-scaled-1.webp?fit=1200%2C836&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":305461,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=305461","url_meta":{"origin":367559,"position":2},"title":"New York State Sea Level Rise:\u00a0 Fantasy as Law","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"01\/03\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"In the United States, both Federal and State agencies make pseudo-laws by formalizing \u201crules\u201d which have the effect of law but are not written by or voted on by the legislators which have the responsibility to make law.","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/033-2_miller_cover.jpg?fit=1200%2C837&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/033-2_miller_cover.jpg?fit=1200%2C837&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/033-2_miller_cover.jpg?fit=1200%2C837&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/033-2_miller_cover.jpg?fit=1200%2C837&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/033-2_miller_cover.jpg?fit=1200%2C837&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":210120,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=210120","url_meta":{"origin":367559,"position":3},"title":"Reuters:\u00a0 How to Lie with Facts","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"25\/07\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Guest Essay by Kip Hansen \u2014\u00a0 25 July 2022 Reuters, the international news agency, has somehow involved itself into the murky waters of Fact Checking \u2013 and worse yet, apparently Facebook accepts whatever Reuters says without inspection or question. William Briggs, who is a statistician and an anti-Expertism expert,\u00a0used an\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/0646654a482ed119d3daf99862dc3fff2.jpeg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/0646654a482ed119d3daf99862dc3fff2.jpeg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/0646654a482ed119d3daf99862dc3fff2.jpeg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/0646654a482ed119d3daf99862dc3fff2.jpeg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, 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