{"id":367538,"date":"2025-02-25T07:57:15","date_gmt":"2025-02-25T06:57:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=367538"},"modified":"2025-02-25T07:57:17","modified_gmt":"2025-02-25T06:57:17","slug":"new-study-ocean-warming-is-supposed-to-increase-water-vapor-but-its-been-declining-since-2008","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=367538","title":{"rendered":"New Study: Ocean Warming Is Supposed to Increase Water Vapor \u2013 But It\u2019s Been Declining Since 2008"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From NoTrickZone<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By\u00a0Kenneth Richard<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cOur findings are unexpected: despite rising sea surface temperatures, global Eo [ocean evaporation\/water vapor] has decreased in the most recent decade.\u201d \u2013 Ma et al., 2025<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A 2024 study<\/a><\/strong> published in PNAS<\/em> again confirmed climate models fail to simulate what happens in the real world with regard to fundamental climate change variables like water vapor, Earth\u2019s most significant greenhouse gas (due to its alleged warmth-enhancing \u201cfeedback\u201d capacity).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Per state-of-the-art climate models, specific humidity (SH) should increase as a consequence of CO2-induced global warming. But 40 years of observations (1980-) show no increasing SH trend over arid\/semi-arid regions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Per state-of-the-art climate models, relative humidity (RH) should remain relatively constant, if not decline slightly as a consequence of CO2-induced global warming. But 40 years of observations (1980-) show not a slight<\/em> declining trend, but a declining trend that is \u201cabout an order of magnitude more than the models on average.\u201d In other words, the climate models are wrong by a factor of 10.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The authors did not understate the profundity of these climate modeling failures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThis represents a major gap in our understanding and in climate model fidelity that must be understood and fixed as soon as possible in order to provide reliable hydroclimate projections for arid\/semi-arid regions in the coming decades.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Image Source:\u00a0Simpson et al., 2024<\/a><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Now, a new study<\/a><\/strong> has once again confirmed there has been an \u201cunexpected\u201d decline in ocean evaporation (which accounts for 85% of the derivation of global atmospheric water vapor) since 2008, the \u201cturning point\u201d (TP) year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These robust results affirming a declining ocean evaporation (Eo) or water vapor trend across two-thirds of the globe \u2013 mostly in the Southern Hemisphere \u2013 can be found in all four satellite data sets used for the study.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Image Source:\u00a0Ma et al., 2025<\/a><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

It should be noted that in 2020 Dr. Koutsoyiannis published a paper<\/a><\/strong> indicating the lack of a model-expected increasing trend in global specific humidity has been observed not just since 2008, or 1980, but since the late 1940s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Observations do not seem to be sufficiently cooperating with the \u201cwater vapor feedback\u201d narrative.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Image Source:\u00a0Koutsoyiannis, 2020<\/a><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u201cOur findings are unexpected: despite rising sea surface temperatures, global Eo [ocean evaporation\/water vapor] has decreased in the most recent decade.\u201d \u2013 Ma et al., 2025<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":367545,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818153,691818087,691833532,691820381,691822277],"class_list":{"0":"post-367538","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-climate-models","9":"tag-global-warming","10":"tag-ocean-evaporation-eo","11":"tag-ocean-warming","12":"tag-water-vapor-wv","14":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0process-water-vapour-atmosphere-video.webp?fit=1280%2C720&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1xC2","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":367691,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=367691","url_meta":{"origin":367538,"position":0},"title":"New Study Reveals Unexpected Decline in Ocean Evaporation Amid Rising Sea Temperatures","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"26\/02\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"A recent study published in\u00a0Geophysical Research Letters, has turned up a surprising result: global ocean evaporation, a cornerstone of the hydrological cycle, has been declining since the late 2000s despite steadily warming sea surfaces. This runs counter to the widely held view that a warmer climate should boost evaporation rates.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation\"","block_context":{"text":"Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=atlantic-meridional-overturning-circulation"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/02799633.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/02799633.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/02799633.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/02799633.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/02799633.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":338539,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=338539","url_meta":{"origin":367538,"position":1},"title":"Role of Humans in the Global Water Cycle and Impacts on Climate Change","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/08\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Contemporary climate models only include the impact of water vapor as positive feedback on warming; the impact of direct anthropogenic emissions of water vapor has not been seriously considered.","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/0e2910b9d-b9b7-4c46-950a-382ac9f8a167_rw_1920.jpg?fit=1200%2C939&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/0e2910b9d-b9b7-4c46-950a-382ac9f8a167_rw_1920.jpg?fit=1200%2C939&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/0e2910b9d-b9b7-4c46-950a-382ac9f8a167_rw_1920.jpg?fit=1200%2C939&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/0e2910b9d-b9b7-4c46-950a-382ac9f8a167_rw_1920.jpg?fit=1200%2C939&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/0e2910b9d-b9b7-4c46-950a-382ac9f8a167_rw_1920.jpg?fit=1200%2C939&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":336072,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=336072","url_meta":{"origin":367538,"position":2},"title":"A Tale of 2 Opposing Ocean Warming Narratives!","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/07\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"There are 2 narratives claiming to explain most of the observed ocean warming. One suggests recent ocean warming has been totally driven by human emissions that amplified the greenhouse effect. That narrative is supported the correlation with rising CO2 that blankets the globe. The second suggests the El Ni\u00f1o-Southern Oscillation\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"carbon dioxide (CO2)\"","block_context":{"text":"carbon dioxide (CO2)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=carbon-dioxide-co2"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0-sun-over-the-ocean.jpeg?fit=1200%2C899&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0-sun-over-the-ocean.jpeg?fit=1200%2C899&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0-sun-over-the-ocean.jpeg?fit=1200%2C899&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0-sun-over-the-ocean.jpeg?fit=1200%2C899&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0-sun-over-the-ocean.jpeg?fit=1200%2C899&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":369299,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=369299","url_meta":{"origin":367538,"position":3},"title":"Beyond CO\u2082: Unraveling the Roles of Energy, Water Vapor, and Convection in Earth\u2019s Atmosphere","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/03\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Fundamentally the entire man-made CO2\u00a0global warming concept, boils down to the interaction of energy and matter in Earth\u2019s atmosphere.\u00a0The only reason that CO2\u00a0and other greenhouse gases (GHGs) are special is that they absorb most of the radiation emitted by Earth\u2019s surface. 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The researchers analyzed the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Antarctic\"","block_context":{"text":"Antarctic","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=antarctic"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-313.png?fit=1024%2C768&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-313.png?fit=1024%2C768&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-313.png?fit=1024%2C768&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-313.png?fit=1024%2C768&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":379174,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=379174","url_meta":{"origin":367538,"position":5},"title":"A chitchat with Grok on water vapor","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"21\/05\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Let me say right off the bat, when you combine what I have been showing the past 2 years with other work on solar, cloud, and UHI (urban heat islands), it seems pretty clear that the amount of CO2\u2019s role in the warming is at best questionable.","rel":"","context":"In \"carbon dioxide (CO\u2082)\"","block_context":{"text":"carbon dioxide (CO\u2082)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=carbon-dioxide-co%e2%82%82"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/0ChatGPT-Image-21.-Mai-2025-16_44_21.png?fit=800%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/0ChatGPT-Image-21.-Mai-2025-16_44_21.png?fit=800%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/0ChatGPT-Image-21.-Mai-2025-16_44_21.png?fit=800%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/0ChatGPT-Image-21.-Mai-2025-16_44_21.png?fit=800%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/367538","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=367538"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/367538\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":367547,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/367538\/revisions\/367547"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/367545"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=367538"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=367538"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=367538"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}