{"id":367248,"date":"2025-02-22T18:24:07","date_gmt":"2025-02-22T17:24:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=367248"},"modified":"2025-02-22T18:24:09","modified_gmt":"2025-02-22T17:24:09","slug":"reforming-the-national-climate-assessment-a-call-for-sanity-over-alarmism","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=367248","title":{"rendered":"Reforming the National Climate Assessment: A Call for Sanity Over Alarmism"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Charles Rotter<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

The U.S. National Climate Assessment (NCA) has long been touted as a cornerstone of the federal government\u2019s climate agenda, a hefty tome meant to guide policy and inform the public about the perils of a warming world. But according to Patrick Brown<\/a>, a climate scientist at the Breakthrough Institute, the NCA is less a beacon of scientific rigor and more a megaphone for partisan alarmism. In a recent article for The Breakthrough Journal<\/em> (Spring 2024, No. 20)<\/a>, Brown lays out five practical recommendations to overhaul the NCA, aiming to make it a tool for genuine understanding rather than a cudgel for political mobilization. For our readers, his critique hits familiar notes\u2014exposing the biases and hype baked into the climate establishment\u2019s flagship report\u2014while offering a path toward something more credible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Brown\u2019s starting point is a simple truth: the NCA, as it stands, is a one-sided affair. Released every few years under the auspices of the U.S. Global Change Research Program, it\u2019s a document that reflects the priorities of whoever\u2019s in power\u2014lately, that\u2019s been Democrats with a taste for apocalyptic rhetoric. But with a new administration on the horizon and a growing chorus of skeptics questioning the climate orthodoxy, Brown\u2019s ideas couldn\u2019t come at a better time. Here\u2019s a rundown of his five fixes, and why they matter to anyone tired of being fed a steady diet of climate doom.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1. Include Exposure and Vulnerability, Not Just Physical Hazards<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The NCA loves to spotlight \u201cclimate hazards\u201d\u2014floods, heatwaves, wildfires\u2014as if they\u2019re solely the spawn of rising CO2 levels. Brown calls this out as myopic. A real assessment of risk doesn\u2019t just tally up weather events; it factors in exposure<\/em> (how many people or assets are in harm\u2019s way) and vulnerability<\/em> (how well they can cope). Think about it: a hurricane hitting a sparsely populated coast in 1900 isn\u2019t the same as one slamming into Miami today. Population growth, urban sprawl, and shoddy infrastructure often drive disaster costs far more than a few degrees of warming. By ignoring these, the NCA inflates climate\u2019s role and dodges the messy reality of human decisions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For skeptics, this is a no-brainer\u2014stop blaming the atmosphere for bad zoning laws.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2. Analyze Total Risk, Not Just \u201cAdditional\u201d Risk from Climate Change<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here\u2019s where the NCA\u2019s tunnel vision gets absurd. It fixates on the \u201cadditional\u201d risk tacked on by climate change, as if the baseline risk from nature\u2019s tantrums doesn\u2019t matter. Brown gives an example: if heat-related deaths are dropping overall (thanks to air conditioning and better healthcare), but climate change nudges them up slightly, the NCA screams about the uptick while burying the bigger story of progress. This cherry-picking fuels the narrative that every problem is a climate problem, even when the data says otherwise. Readers here know the game\u2014hype the delta, hide the trend. Brown wants the NCA to show the full picture: total risk, not just the climate boogeyman.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3. Address Publication Bias Head-On<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The NCA leans heavily on peer-reviewed studies, which sounds great until you realize the academic machine churns out papers skewed toward dramatic findings. Brown points to \u201cpublication bias\u201d\u2014the tendency for journals to favor studies showing big, scary climate impacts over those finding little or nothing. A paper saying \u201cwarming might not hurt corn yields\u201d doesn\u2019t get the same love as one predicting famines. This distorts the NCA\u2019s conclusions, making climate change look like a relentless juggernaut. Brown\u2019s fix? Force the NCA to wrestle with this bias explicitly\u2014maybe even seek out the ignored studies. For those of us who\u2019ve long suspected the science is cooked to fit the narrative, this is a welcome jab at the ivory tower.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

4. Focus on Description, Not Mobilization<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The NCA isn\u2019t shy about its agenda\u2014it\u2019s less a report and more a call to arms, dripping with urgency to \u201cact now\u201d on emissions. Brown argues this activist slant undermines its credibility. Science should describe what is<\/em>, not preach what we ought<\/em> to do. When the NCA doubles as a policy cheerleader, it alienates half the country\u2014especially those who see climate action as a Trojan horse for bigger government or economic upheaval. Brown wants it to stick to facts: what\u2019s happening, how certain are we, and what\u2019s the range of outcomes? No rallying cries, no guilt trips. It\u2019s a refreshing nod to objectivity in a debate drowning in propaganda.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

5. Establish a \u201cRed Team\u201d Review Process<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Perhaps Brown\u2019s boldest idea is a \u201cred team\u201d review\u2014a formal challenge to the NCA\u2019s conclusions by an independent group of experts. Think of it as a scientific audit, poking holes in assumptions and testing the robustness of claims. The climate establishment hates this concept (remember the backlash to Scott Pruitt\u2019s EPA proposal?)<\/a>, but it\u2019s hard to argue against if you value transparency. A red team could expose weak spots\u2014like overhyped models or dodgy attribution\u2014and force the NCA to justify itself. For skeptics, this is the holy grail: a chance to break the echo chamber and let dissenting voices breathe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why It Matters<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Brown\u2019s reforms aren\u2019t about doubting climate change, as he\u2019s a believer, perhaps a lukewarmer, but about making the NCA a document both sides can trust. Right now, it\u2019s a partisan football\u2014kicked around by progressives when they\u2019re in charge, ignored or dismantled by conservatives when the pendulum swings. With Trump back in the White House and Doge eyeing the budget axe, the NCA\u2019s future is shaky. Brown\u2019s vision might save it from irrelevance or deletion by grounding it in reality over ideology.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This critique aligns with what we\u2019ve said for years: the climate narrative is oversold, oversimplified, and over politicized. Brown\u2019s not tossing the NCA out\u2014he\u2019s trying to salvage it from its own excesses. Whether the climate elite will listen is another story. They\u2019ve got a lot invested in the doom train\u2014careers, grants, moral superiority. But if the NCA keeps peddling half-truths, it\u2019ll only deepen the divide between the alarmists and the rest of us who just want straight answers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Check out Brown\u2019s full piece at The Breakthrough Institute here<\/a>. It\u2019s a rare case of a climate insider calling out his own side\u2019s nonsense.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The U.S. National Climate Assessment (NCA) has long been touted as a cornerstone of the federal government\u2019s climate agenda, a hefty tome meant to guide policy and inform the public about the perils of a warming world. But according to\u00a0Patrick Brown, a climate scientist at the Breakthrough Institute, the NCA is less a beacon of scientific rigor and more a megaphone for partisan alarmism.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":367252,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691829997,691818056,691829298,691822363,691833483],"class_list":{"0":"post-367248","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-carbon-dioxide-co","9":"tag-climate-change","10":"tag-national-climate-assessment-nca","11":"tag-patrick-brown","12":"tag-u-s-global-change-research-program","14":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0-National-Climate-Assessment.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1xxm","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":288740,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=288740","url_meta":{"origin":367248,"position":0},"title":"\u2018National Embarrassment\u2019: Key Stat Used In Biden Admin\u2019s Landmark Climate Report Is Misleading","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"11\/26\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"From The Daily Caller NICK POPE CONTRIBUTOR A key top-line statistic featured in the Biden administration\u2019s latest report on the state of climate change in the U.S. is misleading in several ways. The\u00a0Fifth National Climate Assessment\u00a0(NCA 5) features numerous analyses and graphics that purport to highlight extreme weather events that\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Biden Administration\"","block_context":{"text":"Biden Administration","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=biden-administration"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/0210422083025-03-biden-climate-summit-0422-super-tease.jpg?fit=1100%2C619&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/0210422083025-03-biden-climate-summit-0422-super-tease.jpg?fit=1100%2C619&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/0210422083025-03-biden-climate-summit-0422-super-tease.jpg?fit=1100%2C619&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/0210422083025-03-biden-climate-summit-0422-super-tease.jpg?fit=1100%2C619&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/0210422083025-03-biden-climate-summit-0422-super-tease.jpg?fit=1100%2C619&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":288716,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=288716","url_meta":{"origin":367248,"position":1},"title":"5th National Climate Assessment: Obscured Hurricane Facts to Pull on Heart Strings","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"11\/26\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"By Jim Steele NCA Hype: NCA constantly claimed that \u201churricanes are both expected to increase in the region due to human-induced climate change, which will affect public health unless adaptation measures are taken (high confidence).\u201d The NCA focused on human and ecosystem hardships in Puerto Rico caused by Hurricane Maria\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"5th National Climate Assessment\"","block_context":{"text":"5th National Climate Assessment","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=5th-national-climate-assessment"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/0F_Zmmbla0AEGiDe.jpeg?fit=1200%2C843&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/0F_Zmmbla0AEGiDe.jpeg?fit=1200%2C843&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/0F_Zmmbla0AEGiDe.jpeg?fit=1200%2C843&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/0F_Zmmbla0AEGiDe.jpeg?fit=1200%2C843&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/0F_Zmmbla0AEGiDe.jpeg?fit=1200%2C843&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":289672,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=289672","url_meta":{"origin":367248,"position":2},"title":"No, CNN, Climate Change is Not Costing the U.S. Billions","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"12\/02\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"By Linnea Lueken CNN Business posted an article titled \u201cClimate change is costing the US $150 billion a year. Here\u2019s what that looks like,\u201d which cites a recent government climate report to claim that global warming is causing an increase in costly weather disasters. This is false. Data refutes the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0Kalachakra_Protection_From_Natural_Disasters.jpg?fit=1200%2C719&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0Kalachakra_Protection_From_Natural_Disasters.jpg?fit=1200%2C719&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0Kalachakra_Protection_From_Natural_Disasters.jpg?fit=1200%2C719&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0Kalachakra_Protection_From_Natural_Disasters.jpg?fit=1200%2C719&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0Kalachakra_Protection_From_Natural_Disasters.jpg?fit=1200%2C719&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":374948,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=374948","url_meta":{"origin":367248,"position":3},"title":"Panic in the Greenhouse: Guardian Shrieks as Climate Gravy Train Derails","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"04\/13\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"They say you can hear the wailing from space\u2014or at least from deep within the editorial dungeon of The Guardian, where climate correspondents are reportedly being consoled with soy lattes and participation trophies after the unthinkable occurred: the Trump administration canceled funding for ICF International, the contractor coordinating America\u2019s National\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"alarmist framing\"","block_context":{"text":"alarmist framing","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=alarmist-framing"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/0Screenshot-2025-04-13-120206.png?fit=1200%2C646&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/0Screenshot-2025-04-13-120206.png?fit=1200%2C646&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/0Screenshot-2025-04-13-120206.png?fit=1200%2C646&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/0Screenshot-2025-04-13-120206.png?fit=1200%2C646&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/0Screenshot-2025-04-13-120206.png?fit=1200%2C646&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":376880,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=376880","url_meta":{"origin":367248,"position":4},"title":"Trump Administration Finally Pulls the Plug on the Climate Fear Factory","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"04\/30\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The long-overdue showdown with America\u2019s most bloated, self-important arm of climate alarmism finally arrived this week \u2014 and what a spectacle it was. In a move that should have happened years ago, the Trump administration decisively dismissed the hundreds of so-called \u201cexperts\u201d who were preparing the next National Climate Assessment\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"climate alarmism\"","block_context":{"text":"climate alarmism","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-alarmism"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/0climate-anxiety.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/0climate-anxiety.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/0climate-anxiety.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/0climate-anxiety.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/0climate-anxiety.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":374801,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=374801","url_meta":{"origin":367248,"position":5},"title":"US Exiting the Climate Alarm Cabal \u2014 The Climate Realism Show#153","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"04\/11\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The Heartland Institute's Anthony Watts, Sterling Burnett, Linnea Lueken, and Jim Lakely will discuss this topic and also cover some of the Crazy Climate News of the Week.","rel":"","context":"In \"climate alarmism\"","block_context":{"text":"climate alarmism","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-alarmism"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/00Screenshot-2025-04-11-171108.png?fit=1200%2C671&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/00Screenshot-2025-04-11-171108.png?fit=1200%2C671&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/00Screenshot-2025-04-11-171108.png?fit=1200%2C671&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/00Screenshot-2025-04-11-171108.png?fit=1200%2C671&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/00Screenshot-2025-04-11-171108.png?fit=1200%2C671&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/367248","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=367248"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/367248\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":367253,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/367248\/revisions\/367253"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/367252"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=367248"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=367248"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=367248"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}