{"id":367050,"date":"2025-02-20T18:58:29","date_gmt":"2025-02-20T17:58:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=367050"},"modified":"2025-02-20T18:58:31","modified_gmt":"2025-02-20T17:58:31","slug":"worrywarts-and-their-grand-statistical-masquerade","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=367050","title":{"rendered":"Worrywarts and Their Grand Statistical Masquerade"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Charles Rotter<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ah, another study in the well-worn genre of \u201cLet\u2019s Dress Up Emotional Hand-Wringing as Science.\u201d In\u00a0Worry\u2019s Clout: Concern, not positive affectivity, drives climate activism<\/strong><\/em>,<\/a>\u00a0Bechtoldt and Schermelleh-Engel give us an exquisite specimen of a paper that would make even the most devout doom-prophet weep with joy. This isn\u2019t science; it\u2019s a therapeutic validation session masquerading as empirical research.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
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https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0272494424002901?ref=pdf_download&fr=RR-2&rr=9141e6b3bb8674ba<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Let\u2019s slice it apart, shall we?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1. The Authors Swallow More Narratives Than the IPCC Can Churn Out in a Decade<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This paper operates on a remarkable premise: that global climate apocalypse is so imminent and severe that emotional distress is not just expected, but the most logical driver of activism. The authors cite the IPCC, but\u2014amazingly\u2014go even further. The IPCC at least pretends to retain some caution, acknowledging uncertainties and discussing various potential scenarios. Not here! No, in this study, climate catastrophe<\/em> is an established, omnipresent, existential crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Consider this masterpiece of hyperbole:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cClimate change proceeds fast.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Ah, yes. So fast that global temperatures have risen by a whopping<\/em> 1.2\u00b0C in over a century. So fast that sea level rise is occurring at the breakneck speed of about 3mm per year. One wonders how these authors manage to draft their papers when civilization is obviously seconds away from collapsing into a Mad Max wasteland.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then we get this:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cDue to its existential threat and the irreversible losses climate change has already incurred, it evokes profound emotions among many individuals.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Irreversible losses? Already incurred<\/em>? As in\u2026 all those projected disasters that have stubbornly refused to materialize? The UN said in 1989 that entire nations would be underwater by the year 2000. We\u2019re still waiting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, existential threat<\/em> is a nice touch\u2014conveniently ignoring that most people on Earth have never been healthier, wealthier, or more secure. But why let reality interfere with the narrative?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2. The Study Relies on Subjective Mush, Then Douses It in Statistics to Pretend It\u2019s Science<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is where it gets fun. This paper is a case study in what happens when you take emotional self-reporting (read: surveys filled out by a handful of people who signed up for online questionnaires) and then crank up the statistics blender to full power. What do we get? An elaborate numerical justification for focus group psychology, dressed up as hard data.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
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Worry’s Clout: Concern, not positive affectivity, drives climate activism – ScienceDirect<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Behold the foundation of their analysis:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  1. They invent a new scale for climate activism (CLAC).<\/strong>\u00a0Because, naturally, existing methods of measurement weren\u2019t\u00a0just right<\/em>\u00a0for their particular doomsday framework.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. They measure \u201cclimate worry\u201d through self-reporting.<\/strong>\u00a0A notoriously precise and objective method, of course.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  3. They then plug these soft, wobbly variables into a \u201ccontinuous time structural equation model\u201d<\/strong>\u2014which is academic jargon for \u201cwe ran a lot of regressions to make correlations look predictive.\u201d<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n
    \n
    \"\"
    Worry’s Clout: Concern, not positive affectivity, drives climate activism – ScienceDirect<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

    They even admit their fundamental problem:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n

    \u201cRecent reviews conclude that emotions are \u2018consistently among the strongest predictors\u2019 of climate action, yet all these associations are based on correlational data.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

    Yes! Correlational data! The thing that is not causation<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    It\u2019s the same logic that finds ice cream consumption and shark attacks to be highly correlated, then concludes that eating ice cream must summon sharks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    And let\u2019s not forget the best part:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n

    \u201cThere is limited data available on activism itself and the connections between activism and its impact on greenhouse gas emissions.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

    So we don\u2019t even know if activism works, but let\u2019s analyze why people feel<\/em> driven to do it! This is akin to studying why people love rain dances while admitting we have no proof they affect the weather.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    3. Worrying More Makes You Activistier! Also, Activism Makes You Worry More!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The paper\u2019s grand revelation is this stunning insight:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \n
    1. People who worry more about climate change are more likely to become activists.<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n
    2. Being an activist makes you worry even more.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

      Ah, the self-sustaining hamster wheel of climate anxiety! This is fantastic news for psychologists, terrible news for activists hoping to, you know, fix<\/em> the problem they claim to care about.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      The authors phrase it rather elegantly:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \n

      \u201cIf worry drives climate action, which in turn heightens worry, this could create a self-sustaining cycle that gradually depletes emotional resources.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

      Translation: climate activism is an emotional pyramid scheme where everyone gets more stressed, nobody fixes anything, and the cycle continues.<\/strong> At least multi-level marketing scams offer you an air fryer after recruiting ten people.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      4. Positive Feelings About Climate Change Are for Denialists, Apparently<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      One of the juiciest nuggets of nonsense in this paper is the section on \u201cclimate-related positive affectivity.\u201d You might think that feeling hopeful, enthusiastic, or motivated about climate change would be good for inspiring action. Nope! According to our intrepid researchers, feeling positively about the climate means you\u2019re just in denial<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \n

      \u201cClimate-related positive affectivity is a stronger indicator of denial-based hope rather than constructive hope.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

      Translation: If you\u2019re not filled with despair, you\u2019re obviously an ignorant fool ignoring the problem.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      This is some real 1984<\/em> doublethink. So the correct<\/em> response to climate change is to stew in relentless anxiety and worry? That\u2019s a great way to promote sustainable mental health. But hey, if more therapy sessions are needed, at least that\u2019s a stimulus package for psychologists!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      And it gets better:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \n

      \u201cClimate activism marginally predicts lower levels of positive affectivity.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

      Ah, so if you start out somewhat hopeful, activism will beat that right out of you. Because nothing says \u201ceffective movement\u201d like a recruitment pipeline that turns idealists into emotionally drained husks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      5. The Study Quietly Admits Climate Activism Is a Fringe Pursuit<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Despite their best efforts to paint climate activism as a grand, noble movement that represents The People\u2122, the actual participation rates tell a different story:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \n

      \u201cDespite the urgency of the climate issue, only a minority of individuals actively participate in climate activism.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

      Oops.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \n

      \u201c\u2026none of the 14 climate activist behaviors were endorsed by more than 7% of participants.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

      That\u2019s\u2026 not great. It turns out that most people\u2014despite endless media fear campaigns\u2014don\u2019t see climate change as a justification to glue themselves to a highway or smear paint on the Mona Lisa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      In reality, what we have is a tiny, self-selected group of hyper-anxious activists who are so stressed out about the climate that their activism makes them even more stressed. Sounds fun!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Conclusion: A Masterpiece of Academic Navel-Gazing<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      This paper is not science. It\u2019s a detailed emotional diary wrapped in statistical tinsel to give it the illusion of rigor. Its core message is that climate activism is driven by anxiety and creates more anxiety, while hope and optimism are signs of denial. The study acknowledges that its entire genre is built on correlational fluff but plows ahead anyway. And it admits that actual climate activism remains a niche hobby for a small, self-selecting group of neurotic catastrophists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      So what\u2019s the takeaway? If you want to be a happier, saner person, steer clear of climate activism. If you want to be part of a self-perpetuating misery cycle, go right ahead and get radicalized.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Meanwhile, the rest of the world will continue living normal lives, waiting for the next generation of doomsday predictions to also fail spectacularly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Cheers!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      H\/T Jessica Weinkle<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      Ah, another study in the well-worn genre of \u201cLet\u2019s Dress Up Emotional Hand-Wringing as Science.\u201d In\u00a0Worry\u2019s Clout: Concern, not positive affectivity, drives climate activism,\u00a0Bechtoldt and Schermelleh-Engel give us an exquisite specimen of a paper that would make even the most devout doom-prophet weep with joy. This isn\u2019t science; it\u2019s a therapeutic validation session masquerading as empirical research.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":367061,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691833433,691819134,691818056,691833434,691821642,691833435],"class_list":{"0":"post-367050","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-climate-activism-clac","9":"tag-climate-alarmism","10":"tag-climate-change","11":"tag-doomsday-framework","12":"tag-ipcc-intergovernmental-panel-on-climate-change","13":"tag-real-1984-doublethink","15":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/00Screenshot-2025-02-20-185730.png?fit=1813%2C955&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1xua","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":352910,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=352910","url_meta":{"origin":367050,"position":0},"title":"The Oppressed Scientist: When Emotions Replace Objectivity in Climate Research","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"01\/12\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"It\u2019s time we asked an important question: who needs cold, unfeeling objectivity when you\u2019re saving the world from a climate apocalypse? Apparently not climate scientists, according to the recently published article in\u00a0Nature Climate Change\u00a0by Schipper, Maharaj, and Pecl.\u00a0This manifesto\u2014masquerading as a scientific commentary\u2014argues that emotions, anxieties, and grievances belong in\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0-Scientists-have-emotional-responses-to-climate-change-too.jpg?fit=1200%2C799&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0-Scientists-have-emotional-responses-to-climate-change-too.jpg?fit=1200%2C799&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0-Scientists-have-emotional-responses-to-climate-change-too.jpg?fit=1200%2C799&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0-Scientists-have-emotional-responses-to-climate-change-too.jpg?fit=1200%2C799&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0-Scientists-have-emotional-responses-to-climate-change-too.jpg?fit=1200%2C799&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":380694,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=380694","url_meta":{"origin":367050,"position":1},"title":"Climate Clergy Livestreams the Sads","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"29\/05\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"It\u2019s not often one encounters a spectacle so rich in irony and unintentional comedy that it practically writes its own parody. Yet here we are, watching the \u201cWeather & Climate Livestream\u201d (WCL)\u00a0unfold\u2014a 100-hour marathon of hand-wringing and bureaucratic bereavement that makes the average opera look stoic.","rel":"","context":"In \"\u201cWeather & Climate Livestream\u201d (WCL)\"","block_context":{"text":"\u201cWeather & Climate Livestream\u201d (WCL)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=weather-climate-livestream-wcl"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/0ChatGPT-Image-29.-Mai-2025-18_18_41.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/0ChatGPT-Image-29.-Mai-2025-18_18_41.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/0ChatGPT-Image-29.-Mai-2025-18_18_41.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/0ChatGPT-Image-29.-Mai-2025-18_18_41.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":278740,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=278740","url_meta":{"origin":367050,"position":2},"title":"More Rending of Garments from \u201cAcademia\u201d or Why\u2026Why Won\u2019t those Troglodytes Trust Us?","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"14\/09\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"In the long tradition of Lewandowsky (who warrants an entire category listing on this site), Cook, Oreskes, and more, we have a new entry into the well-worn genre of trying to understand the uneducated knuckle dragging savages known colloquially as \u201cClimate Deniers.\u201d, and how to \u201ccommunicate\u201d with them.","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate Communications\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate Communications","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-communications"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-434.png?fit=1200%2C799&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-434.png?fit=1200%2C799&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-434.png?fit=1200%2C799&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-434.png?fit=1200%2C799&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-434.png?fit=1200%2C799&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":330708,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=330708","url_meta":{"origin":367050,"position":3},"title":"Hypocrisy, Thy Name is Ulf B\u00fcntgen","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"31\/05\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"A few weeks ago, an article by Professor Ulf B\u00fcntgen titled The Importance of Distinguishing Climate Science from Climate Activism created a significant stir when it was published in Nature\u2019s npj Climate Action. B\u00fcntgen\u2019s commentary was lauded in climate-skeptic circles for calling out the growing trend of scientists blurring the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0Screenshot-2024-05-31-191210.png?fit=1112%2C574&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0Screenshot-2024-05-31-191210.png?fit=1112%2C574&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0Screenshot-2024-05-31-191210.png?fit=1112%2C574&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0Screenshot-2024-05-31-191210.png?fit=1112%2C574&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0Screenshot-2024-05-31-191210.png?fit=1112%2C574&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":359862,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=359862","url_meta":{"origin":367050,"position":4},"title":"Climate Anxiety: Manufactured Hysteria Masquerading as Science","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"31\/12\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The study surveyed 15,793 young Americans between the ages of 16 and 25 through the Cint digital marketplace, a glorified Craigslist for survey participants. It\u2019s a convenience sample, not a probability sample, meaning that it\u2019s inherently biased toward people who actively choose to participate. Despite this glaring issue, the authors\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"aggressive climate policies\"","block_context":{"text":"aggressive climate policies","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=aggressive-climate-policies"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/021climate-anxiety-superJumbo.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/021climate-anxiety-superJumbo.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/021climate-anxiety-superJumbo.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/021climate-anxiety-superJumbo.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/021climate-anxiety-superJumbo.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":420541,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=420541","url_meta":{"origin":367050,"position":5},"title":"Studying Skeptics Through a Keyhole: Why Climate Communication Research Can\u2019t See What It Refuses to Understand","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"08\/01\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"This is the title of a recent article published on January 7, 2026, by Charles Rotter on Watts Up With That. 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