{"id":366334,"date":"2025-02-16T10:32:36","date_gmt":"2025-02-16T09:32:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=366334"},"modified":"2025-02-16T10:32:38","modified_gmt":"2025-02-16T09:32:38","slug":"the-uks-shaky-firm-capacity","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=366334","title":{"rendered":"The UK\u2019s shaky \u2018firm\u2019 capacity"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Paul Homewood<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

As many readers know, the GB electricity grid <\/em>narrowly missed<\/em><\/a> a blackout at the start of January. As was widely reported that the time, it looks as though we were down to our last half a gigawatt of spare capacity. After that, the only option available to grid managers is to switch people off, either through voluntary arrangements (so-called \u2018demand-side response\u2019) or through compulsion \u2013 rolling blackouts, in other words.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is beyond doubt, therefore, that the system is very fragile. When all is said and done, the blame can be laid squarely at the feet of renewables, our 45 gigawatts of which delivered just 2.6 gigawatts of actual output during the evening peak of 8 January 2025. In some ways, we got lucky \u2013 at other times this year, renewables output has fallen to 0.5 gigawatts. If that had happened on 8 January, grid managers would simply not have been able to find the extra capacity required.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the event, we had just enough reliable generation \u2013 gas and nuclear \u2013 to fill the gap. They ran pretty much flat out, and the lights stayed on.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, there\u2019s a problem, and it\u2019s a big one.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Very few gas-fired power stations stay open for longer than three decades, and much of the GB fleet is now very long in the tooth. The Medway power station will hit age 30 this year, and Little Barford, Connah\u2019s Quay and Keadby will follow in 2026. To make things even worse, the Hartlepool nuclear power station is scheduled to close next year too, while Heysham will close in 2027.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the moment, the grid is making reassuring noises. The Capacity Market, which subsidises power stations to \u201cbe there\u201d when renewables decide not to deliver, has <\/em>booked \u201cfirm\u201d capacity of 43 gigawatts for winter 2027\u201328<\/em><\/a>, and they will expect to top that up nearer the time.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

But look a little closer, and the picture becomes less rosy. For example, more than 1 gigawatt of the total is batteries, which will probably only be able to deliver for two hours. By counting them as firm capacity, grid managers are essentially crossing their fingers and hoping that stress events are very brief. Another gigawatt is \u201cunproven\u201d demand-side response \u2013 people who say they are willing to switch off when supplies are tight. Will they do so in practice? Nobody can be sure.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nearly 7 gigawatts of the total is interconnectors, the \u201cfirm\u201d nature of which is increasingly open to question. As we know from previous grid crises, when there is a shortage of electricity here in the UK, there is usually a shortage across Western Europe, because wind speeds are highly correlated. The result is a bidding war for the limited supplies of electricity. Those with surplus firm power \u2013 notably Norway and France \u2013 are increasingly asking why their consumers should have to put up with sky-high prices because the rest of Europe runs its electricity system in a completely irresponsible way. Oslo in particular seems likely to cut the interconnectors in future, rather than endure the economic pain.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

But the bulk of the UK\u2019s firm capacity is gas-fired, and much of this is shaky, rather than firm. Nearly 2 gigawatts of the total is represented by a proposed new unit at Eggborough. However, a few weeks ago, the developers <\/em>relinquished the capacity contract<\/em><\/a> for one of the two units and, with a building contractor apparently yet to be appointed, it remains unclear whether the other will go ahead either.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Also in the gas-fired segment are all those decrepit units mentioned above. Their advanced ages means that their status as firm capacity is open to question. It\u2019s all very well a rusting old power station saying it will be there to help out in 2027, but when the engineers try to switch it on, will it actually deliver? There are fines for failing to do so, but not so onerous as to discourage operators from taking the subsidy and crossing their fingers.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the face of it then, it is quite possible that a large chunk of our 43 gigawatts of firm capacity for winter 2027-28 may not materialise. There are a few scraps of hope around. EDF have apparently indicated that the lives of Hartlepool and Heysham might be extended, which would certainly help things. It is possible that some of the older gas-fired units might take new capacity market contracts to convert to single-cycle power stations (OCGTs) \u2013 more suited to running at low-capacity factors. But OCGTs deliver much more costly power than CCGTs, so hard-pressed consumers should expect even more pain. Finally, grid managers will be hoping that electricity demand doesn\u2019t rise as quickly as forecast over the next few years. That might give them a little more breathing space.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

But a mixture of quick fixes and Hail Marys only to adds to the already worrying impression of a grid that resembles (to <\/em>misquote the eighteenth century diplomat George MacCartney<\/em><\/a>) \u201can old, crazy, first-rate Man of War, which a fortunate succession of able and vigilant officers have contrived to keep afloat for these thirty years past\u201d.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

How much longer it can be kept from sinking remains to be seen.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/www.netzerowatch.com\/all-news\/the-coming-capacity-crunch<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As many readers know, the GB electricity grid\u00a0narrowly missed\u00a0a blackout at the start of January. As was widely reported that the time, it looks as though we were down to our last half a gigawatt of spare capacity. After that, the only option available to grid managers is to switch people off, either through voluntary arrangements (so-called \u2018demand-side response\u2019) or through compulsion \u2013 rolling blackouts, in other words.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":366337,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691833322,691833323,691818130,691823379],"class_list":{"0":"post-366334","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-gb-electricity-grid","9":"tag-hartlepool-nuclear-power-station","10":"tag-renewables","11":"tag-rolling-blackouts","13":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0-rolling-blackouts.jpeg?fit=1140%2C641&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1xiC","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":295346,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=295346","url_meta":{"origin":366334,"position":0},"title":"Rolling Blackouts Narrowly Avoided In\u00a0Alberta","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"15\/01\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"A critical emergency alert was issued on Saturday evening urging Albertans to reduce electricity use to minimize potential outages across the province.","rel":"","context":"In \"Alberta\"","block_context":{"text":"Alberta","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=alberta"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0Screenshot-2024-01-15-174454-1.png?fit=1180%2C603&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0Screenshot-2024-01-15-174454-1.png?fit=1180%2C603&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0Screenshot-2024-01-15-174454-1.png?fit=1180%2C603&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0Screenshot-2024-01-15-174454-1.png?fit=1180%2C603&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0Screenshot-2024-01-15-174454-1.png?fit=1180%2C603&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":210260,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=210260","url_meta":{"origin":366334,"position":1},"title":"Information Blackout","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"26\/07\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"In the wake of\u00a0John Ridgway\u2019s clinical dissection\u00a0of a piece of BBC propaganda this week, and\u00a0Jit\u2019s inspired rant\u00a0against the BBC\u2019s latest piece of climate disinformation, it\u2019s my turn. Not that I can hope to match their levels of analysis and vituperation, but irritation at yet more biased reporting and propaganda from\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/0pexels-photo-11047831.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/0pexels-photo-11047831.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/0pexels-photo-11047831.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/0pexels-photo-11047831.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/0pexels-photo-11047831.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":208184,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=208184","url_meta":{"origin":366334,"position":2},"title":"New Dark Age: Wind & Solar Transition to State-wide Blackouts & Unaffordable Power Prices","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"12\/07\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Renewable energy rent-seekers and politicos have been gripped by a sense of palpable panic: the mob won\u2019t tolerate blackouts for very long, and repeated power rationing will have the same incendiary effect on public sentiment. 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