{"id":365861,"date":"2025-02-12T09:36:59","date_gmt":"2025-02-12T08:36:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=365861"},"modified":"2025-02-12T09:37:01","modified_gmt":"2025-02-12T08:37:01","slug":"new-study-todays-climate-models-do-not-agree-with-reality-and-thus-their-usefulness-is-doubtful","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=365861","title":{"rendered":"New Study: Today\u2019s Climate Models \u2018Do Not Agree with Reality\u2019 And Thus Their Usefulness Is \u2018Doubtful\u2019"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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From NoTrickZone <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By\u00a0Kenneth Richard<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because the current state-of-the-art general circulation models (GCMs) cannot simulate the trends and variances in global precipitation over the last 84 years (1940-2023), their usefulness should be reconsidered.<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Hydrological processes \u2013 ocean circulation, water vapor, clouds \u2013 are key components of climate, easily overshadowing the impact of anthropogenic CO2 emissions by a factor of 2,100<\/strong><\/a> (Koutsoyiannis, 2021<\/a><\/strong>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The effect that clouds cover variability has on surface temperature is so uncertain, and our cloud-effect measurement capacities are so primitive, even NASA has had to admit that \u201ctoday\u2019s models must be improved by about a hundredfold in accuracy<\/a><\/strong>\u201d to even begin to attribute current or future temperature changes to increases in atmospheric CO2.<\/p>\n\n\n

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Image Source:\u00a0NASA.gov<\/a><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

In that vein, a new paper<\/a><\/strong> published by Dr. Koutsoyiannis, a hydrologist, statistically assesses the utility of today\u2019s climate models. He documents the general circulation models\u2019 capacity to simulate trends and variability in global (hemispheric) precipitation since 1940.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The results are not encouraging. The best computer models we have cannot accurately simulate what occurs in the real world.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt turns out that the precipitation simulated by the climate models does not agree with reality on the annual scale\u2026\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

When the models are tuned to assess what happens at a continental scale, their performance plunges from poor to worse. These modeling failures cast doubt on whether GCMs are even worth using at all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201c[W]hen the areal scale is decreased from hemispheric to continental, i.e., when Europe is examined, the model performance is poor even at large time scales.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cTherefore, the usefulness of climate model results for hydrological purposes is doubtful.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Image Source:\u00a0Koutsoyiannis, 2025<\/a><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

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