{"id":365820,"date":"2025-02-12T08:34:12","date_gmt":"2025-02-12T07:34:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=365820"},"modified":"2025-02-12T08:34:14","modified_gmt":"2025-02-12T07:34:14","slug":"the-2025-hurricane-season","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=365820","title":{"rendered":"The 2025 hurricane season"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"407\" data-attachment-id=\"365852\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=365852\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0-The-2025-hurricane-season.jpg?fit=1280%2C720&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1280,720\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"0 The 2025 hurricane season\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0-The-2025-hurricane-season.jpg?fit=723%2C407&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0-The-2025-hurricane-season.jpg?resize=723%2C407&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-365852\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0-The-2025-hurricane-season.jpg?resize=1024%2C576&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0-The-2025-hurricane-season.jpg?resize=300%2C169&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0-The-2025-hurricane-season.jpg?resize=768%2C432&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0-The-2025-hurricane-season.jpg?resize=1200%2C675&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0-The-2025-hurricane-season.jpg?w=1280&amp;ssl=1 1280w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">By <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cfact.org\/author\/joe-bastardi\/\">Joe Bastardi<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The 2025 Hurricane Season should have fewer impacts than 2024.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>2018 is the closest analog.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Unlike last year, there are currently no clear landfall signals.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The high impact forecast area map will be issued with the April update.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>An El Ni\u00f1o may develop but likely won\u2019t be a huge factor if it does.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><em>Forecast according to the Power &amp; Impact Scale<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Named Storms: 15-19 (Saffir Simpson, same)<br>Category 1 or greater hurricanes: 7-9 (Saffir Simpson, same)<br>Category 2.5 (start of Power &amp; Impact major hurricane classification): 3<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><em>Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale Forecast<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Named Storms: 15-19<br>Total Hurricanes: 7-9<br>Major Hurricanes: 2-3<br>ACE Index: 120-150<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><em>Impact Forecast and this is what I am most concerned with, the number game above is window dressing<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tropical Storm Conditions: 5-7.<br>Total Hurricanes: 3-4<br>Major Hurricanes: 1-2<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Quick Review of last year<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The original window dressing numbers were overdone. Part of the reason is we had very few \u201cham sandwiches\u201d as I call them, storms that years ago probably would not have been seen or counted.\u00a0 As it turned out a storm that should have been named that hit the South Carolina coast with hurricane gusts and close to 20 inches of rain had multi-billion-dollar impacts. The subjectivity problem is still a consideration, how many will or won\u2019t be named based on whatever is being weighed in at the time. So, there is a chance that is underdone if we get more of them.\u00a0 But unless you are a ship or flying fish, you probably are not that concerned<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But the impact forecast was the best I have ever put out. The hurricane season from hell was the 2cnd most expensive on record and the storms where they were supposed to go. I never wavered on this map and our midseason adjustment to the window dressing numbers was on target.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"640\" height=\"362\" data-attachment-id=\"365821\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=365821\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/image-162.png?fit=640%2C362&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"640,362\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/image-162.png?fit=640%2C362&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/image-162.png?resize=640%2C362&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-365821\" style=\"width:667px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/image-162.png?w=640&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/image-162.png?resize=300%2C170&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Commentary<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The forecast is based on the overall cooling of SSTs in the Atlantic and forecasted warming in the ENSO areas of the Pacific. Even now, the Main Development Region is much cooler than last year at this time. 2024:<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"640\" height=\"355\" data-attachment-id=\"365824\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=365824\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/image-164.png?fit=640%2C355&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"640,355\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/image-164.png?fit=640%2C355&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/image-164.png?resize=640%2C355&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-365824\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/image-164.png?w=640&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/image-164.png?resize=300%2C166&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Now:<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"640\" height=\"355\" data-attachment-id=\"365827\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=365827\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/image-166.png?fit=640%2C355&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"640,355\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/image-166.png?fit=640%2C355&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/image-166.png?resize=640%2C355&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-365827\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/image-166.png?w=640&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/image-166.png?resize=300%2C166&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I believe the Euro has the right idea on the ENSO region, which is the opposite of last year when the strong El Ni\u00f1o collapsed. This year, the Euro is forecasting a weak La Ni\u00f1a reversing to an El Ni\u00f1o by the hurricane season.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"629\" height=\"523\" data-attachment-id=\"365828\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=365828\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/image-167.png?fit=629%2C523&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"629,523\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/image-167.png?fit=629%2C523&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/image-167.png?resize=629%2C523&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-365828\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/image-167.png?w=629&amp;ssl=1 629w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/image-167.png?resize=300%2C249&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 629px) 100vw, 629px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The consensus of the models is not as impressed with that chance (<em>compiled by IRI<\/em>).<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"640\" height=\"207\" data-attachment-id=\"365830\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=365830\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/image-169.png?fit=640%2C207&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"640,207\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/image-169.png?fit=640%2C207&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/image-169.png?resize=640%2C207&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-365830\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/image-169.png?w=640&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/image-169.png?resize=300%2C97&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The consensus is a very low chance for El Ni\u00f1o. I am following the example of the 2017-18 pattern that resulted in a similar winter to what we will wind up with here, after a similar hurricane season in 2017. That was actually the hurricane season with the most damage and 2023 was second. The winter MJO rotation has been close to 2017-18, indicating there is an overall similarity in the global pattern.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Finally, I don\u2019t believe a weak El Ni\u00f1o, given the current global warmth, would be as big of a deal when it comes to the total number of storms as it may have had in the past. Based on the ONI we had a strong El Ni\u00f1o in 2023 and there were more total storms than in 2024. The key was almost all were out at sea. As far as clustering, if there is to be a clustering of tracks, it\u2019s liable to be to the east of last year and coming more from systems passing to the north, and not to the south of the Caribbean islands.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A look at the Euro SSTs for May-July:<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"640\" height=\"403\" data-attachment-id=\"365833\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=365833\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/image-171.png?fit=640%2C403&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"640,403\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/image-171.png?fit=640%2C403&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/image-171.png?resize=640%2C403&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-365833\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/image-171.png?w=640&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/image-171.png?resize=300%2C189&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Still, it doesn\u2019t have an El Ni\u00f1o. The Atlantic is much cooler than last year, and the swath of warmer water is shown to the north. This suggests less Main Development Region activity, but the worry about rapid feedback farther to the north and in close to the coast is there. So, it will be a different look but one that will still have its share of issues.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Note that last year\u2019s forecasted pattern stood out like a sore thumb:<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"640\" height=\"403\" data-attachment-id=\"365835\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=365835\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/image-173.png?fit=640%2C403&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"640,403\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/image-173.png?fit=640%2C403&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/image-173.png?resize=640%2C403&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-365835\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/image-173.png?w=640&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/image-173.png?resize=300%2C189&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I suspect when I do put out the impact map it will be less than average in the Caribbean and more than average near the east coast\u00a0 \u00a0There are seasons similar to last year like 95 and 98 where the following year the cluster showed up east<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">1995 season. notice the cluster in the gulf and the other further east<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"640\" height=\"396\" data-attachment-id=\"365838\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=365838\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/image-175.png?fit=640%2C396&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"640,396\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/image-175.png?fit=640%2C396&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/image-175.png?resize=640%2C396&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-365838\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/image-175.png?w=640&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/image-175.png?resize=300%2C186&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">then the following year<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">tracks in between<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"640\" height=\"396\" data-attachment-id=\"365840\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=365840\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/image-177.png?fit=640%2C396&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"640,396\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/image-177.png?fit=640%2C396&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/image-177.png?resize=640%2C396&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-365840\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/image-177.png?w=640&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/image-177.png?resize=300%2C186&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">1998 there was alot aimed for the gulf and southeast<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"600\" height=\"371\" data-attachment-id=\"365842\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=365842\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/image-179.png?fit=600%2C371&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"600,371\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/image-179.png?fit=600%2C371&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/image-179.png?resize=600%2C371&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-365842\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/image-179.png?w=600&amp;ssl=1 600w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/image-179.png?resize=300%2C186&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">1999 thracks clustered near the east coast<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"600\" height=\"371\" data-attachment-id=\"365845\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=365845\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/image-181.png?fit=600%2C371&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"600,371\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/image-181.png?fit=600%2C371&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/image-181.png?resize=600%2C371&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-365845\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/image-181.png?w=600&amp;ssl=1 600w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/image-181.png?resize=300%2C186&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">While the eastern gulf has been hyper active the past several years, the major hurricane hit drought on southeast Fla continued last year and the hurricane drought on Long Island and New England has also.&nbsp; As remarkable as the cluster has been in the eastern gulf&nbsp; &nbsp;the lack of hits in southeast Florida and in New England is just as remarkable, and at the opposite end of the scale.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">1941-1950 major hits<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"638\" height=\"558\" data-attachment-id=\"365847\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=365847\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/image-183.png?fit=638%2C558&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"638,558\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/image-183.png?fit=638%2C558&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/image-183.png?resize=638%2C558&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-365847\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/image-183.png?w=638&amp;ssl=1 638w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/image-183.png?resize=300%2C262&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 638px) 100vw, 638px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"640\" height=\"495\" data-attachment-id=\"365850\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=365850\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/image-185.png?fit=640%2C495&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"640,495\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/image-185.png?fit=640%2C495&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/image-185.png?resize=640%2C495&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-365850\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/image-185.png?w=640&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/image-185.png?resize=300%2C232&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Knowledge of the past prevents hysteria about the present and the future<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Typical of nature, a balancing act<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The Verdict<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There is no question that what we saw stood out so much that from December we hit the hurricane season from hell, the second most costly on record. I was overdone in the numbers game, though. With a less impressive look this year, I am expecting true tropical cyclones to be less, but there is going to be a better chance for the \u201cham sandwiches\u201d in the North Atlantic to pump up numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This season will be a year where in-close development is a concern, as it has been recently, due to the distortion of overall feedback patterns likely brought about by the distortion of warming, the Global Wind Oscillation, and Sea Level Pressure patterns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As a side note, we had a well below average global ACE last year due to the Western Pacific being so far down. I expect a more normal number in the Western Pacific this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The 2025 Hurricane Season should have fewer impacts than 2024.<br \/>\n2018 is the closest analog.<br \/>\nUnlike last year, there are currently no clear landfall signals.<br \/>\nThe high impact forecast area map will be issued with the April update.<br \/>\nAn El Ni\u00f1o may develop but likely won\u2019t be a huge factor if it does.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":365852,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691833253,691819287,691818104,691829417,691833254],"class_list":["post-365820","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-caribbean","tag-el-nino-2","tag-hurricanes","tag-the-atlantic","tag-western-pacific","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0-The-2025-hurricane-season.jpg?fit=1280%2C720&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1xak","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":437948,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=437948","url_meta":{"origin":365820,"position":0},"title":"Updated hurricane forecast just in time for the climate conference","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"04\/08\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"The forecast numbers for the 2026 season Total storms: 9-13 Hurricanes: 3-5 Major Hurricanes: 1-2 Landfalling U.S. hurricanes: 1-2 Impact storms on the U.S. when at least a warning is issued: 3 ACE Index: 85-105","rel":"","context":"In \"el Ni\u00f1o\"","block_context":{"text":"el Ni\u00f1o","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=el-nino-2"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/AQMShzzdYfAayARu42hZQhr6pJcJiEKHX0UGYhM9xLQc6j60qrZxwpbb-qMaONb1ybO9LpM-Ja-pudL6HCLJc_pikwvO1l1nSFFM-BvyEJCOClWU8DhP7dDD4yW-OADacfcnYtwJI6CGevdhh6KkIZHL2df2dA.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/AQMShzzdYfAayARu42hZQhr6pJcJiEKHX0UGYhM9xLQc6j60qrZxwpbb-qMaONb1ybO9LpM-Ja-pudL6HCLJc_pikwvO1l1nSFFM-BvyEJCOClWU8DhP7dDD4yW-OADacfcnYtwJI6CGevdhh6KkIZHL2df2dA.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/AQMShzzdYfAayARu42hZQhr6pJcJiEKHX0UGYhM9xLQc6j60qrZxwpbb-qMaONb1ybO9LpM-Ja-pudL6HCLJc_pikwvO1l1nSFFM-BvyEJCOClWU8DhP7dDD4yW-OADacfcnYtwJI6CGevdhh6KkIZHL2df2dA.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/AQMShzzdYfAayARu42hZQhr6pJcJiEKHX0UGYhM9xLQc6j60qrZxwpbb-qMaONb1ybO9LpM-Ja-pudL6HCLJc_pikwvO1l1nSFFM-BvyEJCOClWU8DhP7dDD4yW-OADacfcnYtwJI6CGevdhh6KkIZHL2df2dA.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/AQMShzzdYfAayARu42hZQhr6pJcJiEKHX0UGYhM9xLQc6j60qrZxwpbb-qMaONb1ybO9LpM-Ja-pudL6HCLJc_pikwvO1l1nSFFM-BvyEJCOClWU8DhP7dDD4yW-OADacfcnYtwJI6CGevdhh6KkIZHL2df2dA.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":450083,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=450083","url_meta":{"origin":365820,"position":1},"title":"Hurricane update with highest impact concerns now shown","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"06\/13\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"This is an update with more detail on where I think we will have to watch this year for greater-than-average activity, even though overall activity will be below average. These numbers came out on April 6, and they have not changed. I notice other ideas coming out later that were\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)\"","block_context":{"text":"Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=accumulated-cyclone-energy-ace"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/0-Copilot-Hurricane.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/0-Copilot-Hurricane.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/0-Copilot-Hurricane.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/0-Copilot-Hurricane.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/0-Copilot-Hurricane.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":272891,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=272891","url_meta":{"origin":365820,"position":2},"title":"Hurricane update","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"08\/11\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The Power and Impact scale rates the storm intensity during the highest impact (they do not have to make \u201clandfall\u201d, just cause the conditions).","rel":"","context":"In \"el Ni\u00f1o\"","block_context":{"text":"el Ni\u00f1o","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=el-nino-2"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-479.png?fit=1200%2C844&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-479.png?fit=1200%2C844&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-479.png?fit=1200%2C844&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-479.png?fit=1200%2C844&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-479.png?fit=1200%2C844&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":252109,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=252109","url_meta":{"origin":365820,"position":3},"title":"Hurricane impact forecast 2023","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"04\/10\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"WeatherBell has been the pioneer in trying to alert the public as to\u00a0where\u00a0these storms are going to go.","rel":"","context":"In \"2023\"","block_context":{"text":"2023","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=2023"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0-2023-atlantic-hurrican.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0-2023-atlantic-hurrican.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0-2023-atlantic-hurrican.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0-2023-atlantic-hurrican.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0-2023-atlantic-hurrican.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":426165,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=426165","url_meta":{"origin":365820,"position":4},"title":"El Ni\u00f1o weather aspects: Summer, the hurricane season, and next winter","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"02\/14\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"The forecast calling for an El Ni\u00f1o makes sense in the context of the natural cycle of these events. But we\u2019re in a different world now, with oceans unusually warm nearly everywhere. The previous El Ni\u00f1o should be a wake-up call that the atmosphere\u2019s response is no longer behaving the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"el Ni\u00f1o\"","block_context":{"text":"el Ni\u00f1o","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=el-nino-2"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/0palm-trees-wind-scaled-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C749&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/0palm-trees-wind-scaled-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C749&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/0palm-trees-wind-scaled-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C749&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/0palm-trees-wind-scaled-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C749&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/0palm-trees-wind-scaled-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C749&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":446161,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=446161","url_meta":{"origin":365820,"position":5},"title":"GOOD NEWS: NOAA predicts a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/23\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"NOAA released its official 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook on May 21, 2026, and it does call for a below-normal season.","rel":"","context":"In \"2026 Atlantic hurricane season\"","block_context":{"text":"2026 Atlantic hurricane season","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=2026-atlantic-hurricane-season"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-GOOD-NEWS-NOAA-predicts-a-below-normal-2026-Atlantic-hurricane-season.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-GOOD-NEWS-NOAA-predicts-a-below-normal-2026-Atlantic-hurricane-season.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-GOOD-NEWS-NOAA-predicts-a-below-normal-2026-Atlantic-hurricane-season.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-GOOD-NEWS-NOAA-predicts-a-below-normal-2026-Atlantic-hurricane-season.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-GOOD-NEWS-NOAA-predicts-a-below-normal-2026-Atlantic-hurricane-season.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/365820","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=365820"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/365820\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":365854,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/365820\/revisions\/365854"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/365852"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=365820"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=365820"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=365820"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}