{"id":365560,"date":"2025-02-10T08:06:19","date_gmt":"2025-02-10T07:06:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=365560"},"modified":"2025-02-10T08:06:20","modified_gmt":"2025-02-10T07:06:20","slug":"whats-going-to-happen-at-cop30","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=365560","title":{"rendered":"What\u2019s going to happen at\u00a0COP30?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Climate Scepticism<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By\u00a0Robin Guenier<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The West (\u2013 the US) vs. The Rest (+ the US)<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Less than a year ago I posted a short article asking the above question, but about COP29. Although it may seem a little early to post this, there\u2019s so much going on in the world regarding climate issues today, not least the implications of Trump\u2019s arrival in the White House, posting this now would seem to be appropriate. Indeed, there are already some COP30 related items appearing on the COP29 thread.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As I said last year, having studied climate issues going back to the 1950s, I\u2019ve followed UN climate negotiations in detail since 2007. My conclusion is simple: if global greenhouse gas emissions are to be cut substantially \u2013 as we are told is necessary if humanity is to avoid potential catastrophe \u2013 the overriding issue, far more important than any domestic concern<\/em>, is whether or not the governments of major non-Western economies are willing to act accordingly. Yet they\u2019ve shown, and continue to show, scant in interest in so doing. Trump\u2019s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement is hardly going to help.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/a>I set out the evidence and reasons for this failure in an essay published in 2020<\/a>. Nothing that\u2019s happened since 2020 changes my conclusion. The \u2018Dubai Stocktake<\/a>\u2019 agreed at COP28 in 2023 for example if anything reinforced it: the opening paragraph of its item 28 stating that Parties\u2019 \u2018global efforts<\/em>\u2019 should take \u2018into account the Paris Agreement and their different national circumstances<\/em>\u2019 and item 38 repeated the Paris Agreement\u2019s Article 4, unambiguously confirming developing countries\u2019 exemption from any emission reduction obligation. That\u2019s a perfect example of what always happens at these conferences: words are inserted in the concluding communiques or agreements letting developing countries off the hook. And COP29 turned out to be a total failure with nothing of substance or even of much interest being agreed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So what\u2019s going to happen at COP30?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Well, it\u2019s supposed to be an especially important Conference as it will be held ten years since the adoption of the \u2018landmark\u2019 Paris Agreement. Moreover, 2025 is the year when Parties are required to submit their updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) \u2013 setting out targets for cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 2035 and showing how they will reach them. These new NDCs have been described by Simon Stiell, executive director of UN Climate Change, as \u2018among the most important policy documents governments will produce this century<\/em>\u2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The deadline for submission was 10 February. However only ten countries (all of which, apart from the USA, Brazil and the UK, are relatively insignificant) will achieve that. And, as the USA is no longer relevant and Brazil is the COP30 host, the whole thing would seem to be getting off to a particularly poor start. The plan now is to defer the deadline until September. But that will leave very little time for the UN to produce its planned assessment of expected emission reductions, which is supposed be the key document informing the Conference.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Will the Parties \u2013 especially big emitters such as China, India and Russia \u2013 meet the new deadline? And, if they do, will they produce NDCs that include credible emission-cutting targets? We\u2019ll see \u2013 but, in view of past experience, it\u2019s hard to be especially optimistic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robin Guenier \u2013 February 2025<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Less than a year ago I posted a short article asking the above question, but about COP29. Although it may seem a little early to post this, there\u2019s so much going on in the world regarding climate issues today, not least the implications of Trump\u2019s arrival in the White House, posting this now would seem to be appropriate. Indeed, there are already some COP30 related items appearing on the COP29 thread.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":365562,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818056,691833140,691833142,691831508,691833141],"class_list":["post-365560","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-climate-change","tag-cop30","tag-nationally-determined-contributions-ndcs","tag-paris-agreements-article-4","tag-un-climate-negotiations","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0COP-no-Brasil.webp?fit=1280%2C720&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1x68","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":290823,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=290823","url_meta":{"origin":365560,"position":0},"title":"Azerbaijan tipped to host COP29 climate talks","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"12\/11\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Oil-reliant Azerbaijan chosen to host Cop29 climate talks The Eastern European group of countries has chosen\u00a0Baku, Azerbaijan to host next year\u2019s Cop29 climate talks, according to two sources in the Cop28 meeting room where the decision was made.","rel":"","context":"In \"Azerbaijan\"","block_context":{"text":"Azerbaijan","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=azerbaijan"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0-Baku.jpeg?fit=1200%2C801&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0-Baku.jpeg?fit=1200%2C801&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0-Baku.jpeg?fit=1200%2C801&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0-Baku.jpeg?fit=1200%2C801&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0-Baku.jpeg?fit=1200%2C801&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":401973,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=401973","url_meta":{"origin":365560,"position":1},"title":"Expectations Bel\u00e9m COP30 Nov.\u00a02025","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"09\/13\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"From November 10-21, 2025, Brazil will host COP30 in the Amazonian city of Bel\u00e9m, with tens of thousands of delegates, journalists, civil society, and industry representatives expected to attend the summit. 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Essay by Eric Worrall How could this get funnier? Azerbaijan, once described as the nation where it rains oil, has just appointed a state oil company veteran as COP29 President. 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