{"id":364424,"date":"2025-02-03T16:16:03","date_gmt":"2025-02-03T15:16:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=364424"},"modified":"2025-02-03T16:16:05","modified_gmt":"2025-02-03T15:16:05","slug":"climate-alarmist-stefan-rahmstorf-struggles-with-the-reality-of-uncertainty","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=364424","title":{"rendered":"Climate Alarmist Stefan Rahmstorf Struggles with the Reality of Uncertainty"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From NoTrickZone<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By\u00a0P Gosselin<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Frank Bosse<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

(Translated from the original at Klimanachrichten<\/a>)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

We have kept you, dear readers, very promptly informed about AMOC conjectures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Recently<\/a>, we also informed you about a new study<\/a> that found a stable Atlantic overturning circulation since the 1960s. It is not the only one <\/a>in the recent past.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) is a great advocate of the \u201cThe Day after Tomorrow\u201d scenario of a collapsing oceanic current. As recently as June 2024, he noted on X (formerly Twitter) that the AMOC mitigation saga \u201cis\u00a0even more dramatic than it ever was<\/a>\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He himself had been responsible for a whole series of papers as author or co-author, which also contributed to the scenario, and he initiated an \u201copen letter\u201d in the fall of 2024 that dramatically addressed politicians<\/a>. We also reported on this<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Of course, the new findings could not couldn\u2019t pass him by without comment. Under the headline \u201cThe AMOC is slowing down, is stable, yes, no, no, yes\u2026<\/a>\u201d he commented on it on the blog \u201cReal Climate\u201d, which is run by scientists, including himself, Gavin Schmidt from NASA, and others.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What he has to say there can be stated in a nutshell: He defends his approaches and lists the problems of the more recent studies. That was to be expected. For example, he emphasizes that the new climate models (CMIP 6) hardly show any connection between \u201chis fingerprint\u201d, the sea surface temperatures of the \u201cwarming hole\u201d in the North Atlantic (see the article here from 17 January 2025) and the actual current, but that the approximately 4 years older ones called CMIP5 do. He also questions whether the new ones are really more reliable in this respect than the older ones. However, the effort for the former was considerable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He summarized:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

I don\u2019t believe that the newer methods are more reliable than the old ones (his, the author). \u2026 However, since we don\u2019t have measurements going back far enough, there is still some uncertainty in this respect\u2026<\/em>\u201c<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

And that\u2019s the crux of the matter! He \u201cdoesn\u2019t believe\u201d in all honor, but knowledge in science would probably be more adequate! And yes, everything is uncertain and \u201cnothing precise is known\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is also stated by the well-known oceanologist Carl Wunsch in a paper published<\/a> in August 2022:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

In the coming decades, continuous monitoring of the entire coupled ocean-atmosphere system will be necessary to assess the true risks of AMOC collapse, but to date there is no evidence of imminent or overwhelming danger<\/strong>.\u201c<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

There are many assumptions, a lot of back and forth in science and, when viewed in the light of day, a lot of \u201cbelief\u201d or \u201cnon-belief\u201d, i.e. the unmistakable indication of a lack of knowledge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So when you, dear reader, are once again told by a trained psychologist in a news magazine that there is \u201can imminent danger in a few decades if things go badly\u201d (see here<\/a>) or here<\/a>: \u201cEurope\u2019s heating is weakening\u201d: be careful, people are pretending a \u2018certainty\u2019 that simply does not exist. As I said, it\u2019s not seldom about assumptions and belief or non-belief.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Also Prof. Rahmstorf rushed to say<\/a>: \u201cThe Gulf Stream system is failing\u201d, and not \u201cThe Gulf Stream system\u201d could \u201csomehow, somewhere, sometime\u201d stall, the northern branch, the AMOC is perhaps stable or no, or yes (according to his own blog headline).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Image: generated with the KNMI Climate Explorer.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The AMOC is still in excellent health today, as the measurements from 2004 onwards show; these are the actual \u201chard facts\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We should finally stop scaring people in the Atlantic, it doesn\u2019t work with enlightened citizens like you, dear readers.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

We have kept you, dear readers, very promptly informed about AMOC conjectures.<\/p>\n

Recently, we also informed you about\u00a0a new study\u00a0that found a stable Atlantic overturning circulation since the 1960s. It is\u00a0not the only one\u00a0in the recent past.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":364430,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"jetpack_seo_schema_type":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_wpcom_ai_launchpad_first_post":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691824517,691833019,691833018,691833020],"class_list":["post-364424","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-atlantic-meridional-ocean-circulation-amoc","tag-potsdam-institute-for-climate-impact-research-pik-2","tag-prof-stefan-rahmstorf","tag-the-gulf-stream-system","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1wNO","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":414279,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=414279","url_meta":{"origin":364424,"position":0},"title":"\u00a0Is The Gulf Stream Really Collapsing? 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Bet you won't read that in the media? From The\u00a0KlimaNachrichten Editor By Fritz Vahrenholt and Frank Bosse A reminiscence\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Atlantic Overturning Circulation (AMOC)\"","block_context":{"text":"Atlantic Overturning Circulation (AMOC)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=atlantic-overturning-circulation-amoc"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/00H66M7P-1-e1559894595422.jpg?fit=1200%2C606&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/00H66M7P-1-e1559894595422.jpg?fit=1200%2C606&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/00H66M7P-1-e1559894595422.jpg?fit=1200%2C606&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/00H66M7P-1-e1559894595422.jpg?fit=1200%2C606&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/00H66M7P-1-e1559894595422.jpg?fit=1200%2C606&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":417967,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=417967","url_meta":{"origin":364424,"position":2},"title":"Yahoo\u2019s Waning Ocean Current Claims Are Hyperbolic and False","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"12\/20\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"A recent Yahoo News article, \u201cExperts warn ongoing concern with Atlantic Ocean will be direct threat to dozens of nations: \u2018Consequences for at least 1,000 years to come,\u2019\u201d by Timothy McGill, claims a new modeling study shows that a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC,) would intensify Southern\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Atlantic Meridian Overturning Circulation (AMOC)\"","block_context":{"text":"Atlantic Meridian Overturning Circulation (AMOC)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=atlantic-meridian-overturning-circulation-amoc"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQNXbafYXLVDpMn2v6AWVWEzyY0MWvI3od9-FrUmL0nLybMzbVnBTCylhtDZAstrXj-pL2jdT2IA_MWauARk2CHl1aoCK-p1YRLoT23eLUhCjWE_0y2ilAXtUfs2wblZ.jpeg?fit=1200%2C598&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQNXbafYXLVDpMn2v6AWVWEzyY0MWvI3od9-FrUmL0nLybMzbVnBTCylhtDZAstrXj-pL2jdT2IA_MWauARk2CHl1aoCK-p1YRLoT23eLUhCjWE_0y2ilAXtUfs2wblZ.jpeg?fit=1200%2C598&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQNXbafYXLVDpMn2v6AWVWEzyY0MWvI3od9-FrUmL0nLybMzbVnBTCylhtDZAstrXj-pL2jdT2IA_MWauARk2CHl1aoCK-p1YRLoT23eLUhCjWE_0y2ilAXtUfs2wblZ.jpeg?fit=1200%2C598&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQNXbafYXLVDpMn2v6AWVWEzyY0MWvI3od9-FrUmL0nLybMzbVnBTCylhtDZAstrXj-pL2jdT2IA_MWauARk2CHl1aoCK-p1YRLoT23eLUhCjWE_0y2ilAXtUfs2wblZ.jpeg?fit=1200%2C598&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQNXbafYXLVDpMn2v6AWVWEzyY0MWvI3od9-FrUmL0nLybMzbVnBTCylhtDZAstrXj-pL2jdT2IA_MWauARk2CHl1aoCK-p1YRLoT23eLUhCjWE_0y2ilAXtUfs2wblZ.jpeg?fit=1200%2C598&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":442640,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=442640","url_meta":{"origin":364424,"position":3},"title":"No, USA Today, \u2018Day After Tomorrow\u2019 AMOC Collapse Isn\u2019t Happening","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/05\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"USA Today claims in \u201cInfamous disaster scenario can rapidly unfold, study finds\u201d that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or AMOC, could rapidly collapse in a scenario reminiscent of the movie The Day After Tomorrow. This is false. 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Mann, AKA Mr. Hockey Stick (aiming to erase the Medieval warming period).\u00a0 The reasoning is convoluted, as you\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)\"","block_context":{"text":"Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=atlantic-meridional-overturning-circulation-amoc"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0Screenshot-2025-11-17-094353.png?fit=1200%2C729&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0Screenshot-2025-11-17-094353.png?fit=1200%2C729&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0Screenshot-2025-11-17-094353.png?fit=1200%2C729&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0Screenshot-2025-11-17-094353.png?fit=1200%2C729&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0Screenshot-2025-11-17-094353.png?fit=1200%2C729&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":405714,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=405714","url_meta":{"origin":364424,"position":5},"title":"Dunja Hayali and Stefan Rahmstorf: German Experts among themselves","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"09\/29\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Viewers of \"heute\" on ZDF experienced it first-hand: In an interview on 24.9.2025, Hayali asked Stefan Rahmstorf about the forecasts for global temperatures in 2050. The occasion was a current \"wild forecast\" by the \"German Meteorological Society\" (DMG).","rel":"","context":"In \"Arctic Ice\"","block_context":{"text":"Arctic Ice","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=arctic-ice"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/0Screenshot-2025-09-29-130507.png?fit=1200%2C640&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/0Screenshot-2025-09-29-130507.png?fit=1200%2C640&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/0Screenshot-2025-09-29-130507.png?fit=1200%2C640&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/0Screenshot-2025-09-29-130507.png?fit=1200%2C640&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/0Screenshot-2025-09-29-130507.png?fit=1200%2C640&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/07vTMm4wYrMBb12Wh1s.jpeg?fit=2000%2C1334&ssl=1","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/364424","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=364424"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/364424\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":364432,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/364424\/revisions\/364432"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/364430"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=364424"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=364424"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=364424"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}